It's been a pretty big deal the last couple of days that the election is in just 100 days. There have been a number of TV specials on it and far more commentary. 100 days, it's a big deal. However, a very important thing that's fallen under the wire -- and shows why the problem is even far more dire for Trump and Republicans that should have them horrified -- is that it's actually than 100 days. Much less in some cases.
Seven states start early voting in just 55 days! More than just that, this Includes two battleground states: Michigan and Minnesota. Furthermore, nine other states begin early voting in only 72 days. That’s 16 states which will start voting in just over two months -- while the Republican Party is still trying to figure out what to do about their convention. Still trying to figure out their message. Still adjusting to having a brand new campaign director. Still willing to dawdle on a relief package as people face their unemployment bonus ending and face eviction. Still in the midst of the pandemic with numbers spiking and talk of shutting down businesses again. Still trying to send children back to school when unsafe. All the while sending in secret police to attack cities – which polls are showing people in battleground states dislike and hold Republicans at fault for enabling Trump. And these are early votes that will be locked in, no matter what Trump tries to do to either change people’s minds or suppress their vote. If the Trump campaign is planning on an October surprise -- or even a late September surprise -- the only surprise is for the campaign that the votes have already been made and registered. But it's worse than that for the Trump campaign, trying to make up for what appears to be a massive deficit nationally and in enough battleground states that would cost him the election, where every day on a dwindling calendar between now and November 3 is previous. That's because 39 states offer at least some period of early vote and two others (Oregon and Hawaii) have all mail-in voting. So, the Trump campaign doesn't have 100 days to change people's minds and close the widening gap. Over 80% of the country will have had the opportunity to vote before the official Election Day. And all but two of those will be able to vote at a minimum of two weeks before Election Day. (Of those two, New York starts early voting 10 days before, and Oklahoma starts five days early. I think the results of those two starts are pretty set even now, 100 days out.) Now, obviously, everyone in these other 39 states isn’t going to vote on the first day early voting starts, though many will – and if not on the first day, then within the first couple of weeks. And once made, all those votes will be settled, whatever else happens in the country afterwards, regardless of how impactful either side's ads are after the fact. And it's not that all of these early votes will be vote-by-mail either, if Trump wants to rant against that or Republicans want to block it, since early voting polling places are set up, as well. So, while I've heard many Democrats look at the wide gap in the polls and say they wish the election was today – while it isn’t today, it’s a whole lot closer to today than they think… The election is not 100 days away. For many Americans, it's 55 days away. For most Americans, it's 86 days away.
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AuthorRobert J. Elisberg is a political commentator, screenwriter, novelist, tech writer and also some other things that I just tend to keep forgetting. Feedspot Badge of Honor
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