But if Trump does decide to send refund checks, that too will cause a big problem for him because he's said that the tariffs brought in about $850 billion -- when, in fact, all experts say that, at most, it's closer to $200 billion.  So, he'll be $650 billion short of what he's said he would have in order to return.

But if Trump tries some other way to get his beloved tariffs (which he already has, saying that he was going to raise tariffs 10% -- and then upped it even more to 15%!), it will just remind the public a) that his previous tariffs which he had made his core issue was unconstitutional and taxed them illegally, and b) that he’s trying something new that is essentially the same thing.
 
But if Trump backs down and doesn’t try some other way to get tariffs, it will make all his shouting about “Independence Day!!!” and how "tariffs" are his favorite word look ludicrous and weak.
 
But if Trump does go ahead and try some other way with these new tariffs, it will get challenged in court again, and keep this unconstitutional issues as an illegal tax in the news, and create instability and uncertainty in the business community.
 
And he can’t go to Congress to get the tariffs legally, because as enabling as MAGOPs are in Congress, he will never get a majority to vote for raising taxes during an election year.  Especially an election year when MAGOPs likely see themselves being swamped.
 
And whatever Trump does…or even if he does nothing…prices are likely to remain high, not just because of inflation (which reports last week showed it rose), but also because many of these prices raised by tariffs are locked in for the time being -- and furthermore because as Trump keeps trying to raise the tariffs, causing uncertainty, businesses won’t lower their prices until they know what’s going on.  And so, meanwhile, the public will wonder why prices are still high even without the illegal tariffs.
 
The short version is:  I think it’s a huge mess for Trump -- and it's a mess he created and has made even worse. 
 
And the thing is, as I mentioned at the start...Trump was given a graceful, easy exit ramp by the Supreme Court.  And being Trump, he didn't take it.  He could have had his obligatory, crazy meltdown and slammed the Supreme Court like he did, but said, he's being blocked by the court, he can't impose tariffs, and it's all their fault.  And backed away, with the SCOTUS gift lifeline.  But, no, he's Trump, so he doubled-down and said he's going to try all these other options and cause chaos.  Because he's Trump.  Because he's incapable of saying he lost and because he actually, really, really, really loves tariffs. And because he is a malignant narcissist and has dementia (which is degenerative).

And the MAGOPs in Congress who enable him are caught in this Trump tariff vortex.  Because they support him in everything, and so going into the Mid-Terms there will be tariffs, high prices, business uncertainty, and no refunds.

But here's the core trouble for Trump:

The Supreme Court ruled that the tariffs were illegal, which means the tax money collected from Americans was illegal.  Which means it must be returned.  You don't get to keep money you got by illegal means.  No one does.  You have to return it.

If Trump wants to try to find another way to impose tariff taxes that it turns out he can do legally, that's another matter entirely.  But even if so (and it's a very big "if"), money collected illegally has to be returned, no matter how difficult that may be.  Has to.  And it seems unlikely that it will be refunded, especially since the Treasury Secretary has said it won't be.  Which is the core trouble for Trump.

All the other troubles above for Trump are just piling on that.

Last week there was a major news story – but it got almost no attention.  I kept waiting for extensive coverage…but no.  In fact, in some markets that I thought could cover it at length I didn’t see even reference it at all.  Which, given how significant I think the story is, sort of boggled me.
 
We know from earlier reporting that Trump’s jobs reports have been awful.  So awful that he fired the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which was the political equivalent of “Kill the Messenger.” 
 
In fact, it wasn’t just the last few months that were so terrible, but the new jobs created under Trump for the entire year.  In 2025, BLS reported that only 584,000 new jobs were created.  As low as that sounds, it transcends even pathetic when put in context.  And in context, during President Biden’s four years in office, 16.6 million new jobs were created.  That averages 4.15 million new jobs a year.  Averages.  Once again, that was 4.15 million new jobs every year under President Biden -- for four years in a row.  Compared to Trump’s 584,000 jobs last year.
 
But that's not the story. 

Because this brings us the major news last week – news that largely got little coverage, most especially for what the news was. Almost no coverage in some venues.  It should have been the headline story.

Fair Warning:  I'm going to repeat a lot of numbers.  But that's because (as you'll see) these are numbers that can't be repeated enough.
 
You see, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, without its former director who Trump fired, put out adjusted numbers for 2025.  And they not only adjusted last year’s numbers down – they ripped out the floor and did an entire new construction!!
 
Last week, BLS adjusted its new jobs number for 2025 down by…69%!!!  That’s 69% fewer new jobs created last year than the hideously dismal 584,000 that had been previously reported.  The actually-official number is now 181,000 new jobs – for the entire year!!!!!
 
So much for Trump's "great" (sic -- or sick) economy.

And now for the even more detailed perspective for full context about how monumentally disastrous this is.
 
Just 181,000 new jobs would have been horrific for President Biden if that number had been announced for any single month. Just imagine the MAGOP reaction to this.  Only 181,000 new jobs created in a month. The MAGOP would have grabbed the number – just 181,000 for a month -- and crushed it deep into the ground.  But this was 181,000 new jobs for a full year.
 
And doing basic math, that’s an average of only 15,000 new jobs a month!

And this is after Trump fired the BLS head because he didn't like the numbers.

Again, just imagine if this had been for President Biden.  But it wasn't.  It was for Trump.

More perspective:  Remember (as if you’ll forget at this point), under Trump, only 181,000 new jobs were created for the whole year. That yearly total is half the monthly average of new jobs created under President Biden!!! Every month for 48 months.

Literally.

We’ll do the easy math.  Joe Biden added 16.6 million jobs in 4 years. That’s 4.15 million new jobs a year.

And that is 346,000 a month. Each month. For 4 years.
 
Trump created 181,000 new jobs for the entire year.
 
Which, by the way, doing elementary school long division, is only 15,000 new jobs created under Trump per month.
 
For those without an abacus handy, 15,000 is fewer new jobs that 346,000.  Especially when those two numbers are repeated every month for a full year.  Or, in President Biden’s case, every month for four years.
​
Trump created 181,000 new jobs in 2025.  President Biden created 4.15 million new jobs every year for four years.
 
And Trump and MAGOPs are still trying to slam how supposedly terrible the Biden Economy was (despite The Economist magazine calling the Biden Economy the “Best in the World”) and crowing how supposedly tremendous the Trump “economy” is.
 
I think this was a huge story.  And yes, it did get reported here and there.  But “here and there” doesn’t even start to begin to do this story justice about the Trump economy.  I suspect most Americans don’t have a clue about this.  About how cringe-worthy horrific new jobs are under Trump.
 
Most prices remain high.  Consumer spending might be slightly up, but an unbalanced amount of that is largely being spent by the public on health care -- and augmented by spending by the wealthy, not by the middle class and lower.  Inflation might be stable, or even down by a whopping .1%.
 
But only 181,000 new jobs were created in the past year.  Just 15,000 a month.  (Compared to 346,000 a month.)  Whatever the prices, spending and inflation are, however much Trump and his desperate staff try to say what it is…if you’re only creating 15,000 new jobs a month – compared to 346,000 -- it is a ghastly picture of what the economy truly is.
 
That’s what “affordability” is about.
 
That’s what the news story is about.
 
I wish it got reported more.  But then, when the vast majority of Americans tell polls how badly they think the economy is and how bad Trump is doing about it, they don’t need it reported.  They know.  It’s really hard to hide.
 
But still, it would have been nice for it to be the major headline.  Yes, I know there are a ton of major news stories almost every day lately with Trump.  But…well, this was a pretty significant one.

I usually don’t watch pre-released Super Bowl ads before the Super Bowl, I generally want to be surprised.  But this one, from the praise written about it when posted on Twitter, sounded too high to ignore.  And I’m glad I did watch it because it’s the “extended” version (about 90 seconds) which I'm sure won’t be show on TV.  It's the whole enchilada.
 
There have been many superb Super Bowl ads, so I don’t want to say, “This is The Best  Ever!!!”  But I think it’s on the list that will be considered as such.  And remembered for a long time.
 
I don’t know how much it cost to make this or how in the world they got everyone involved, but --
 
Just check it out.

I'll say no more, other than the actors in it seem to be having a wonderful time.  Which given the context (you'll see what I mean) isn't always the case in such things.

Normally, I'd embed the video below.  But the "freeze frame" screen image gives away some of the surprise.  So, instead, I'll embed the link. 

​Just click here...

And afterwards, this is a three-minute "Behind-the-scenes" video.  It's not great, but fun.  In it, they mention that the ad was directed by New Zealand filmmaker Taika Waitiki, who directed the movie JoJo Rabbit.  (And no, the fact that he's from New Zealand does not mean the ad is related to Lord of the Rings.  It's not.  He's just known for off-beat comedy.) So, click here.

​The long backstory isn't important here.  The short version is that there was a leak in the pipes above my parking spot in my building's garage.  And it wasn't just plain water the fell on my car's windshield and roof, but with calcium from the old pipes, which calcified and were impossible to completely remove.

​Over the past few days, Trump has added several large, new tariffs -- including ones on big trucks, upholstered furniture (yes, really), cabinetry (yes, really) and drugs.  Because...oh, I don't know, to make kitchens great again, or something.

And then yesterday, Trump added one more.  On movies made in foreign countries.  I'll let him explain, because I don't have the heart to speak for him on this one.  (Note: The yellow highlighting was put in by them third-party person who posted this, not Trump.)

Trump hinted at this months ago -- and him actually finally getting around to doing it is not less ludicrous and ignorant about moviemaking now than it was then.

And it's very ludicrous and incredibly ignorant about moviemaking -- and on so many levels.  And just to explain that this is not hyperbole, yesterday I got calls from two friends who are filmmakers, and both asked, "Can you explain what's the point of these tariffs??  Because I don't understand."  To which I answered, no, because there is no point to them.  "I ask," they each said, "because that's not Hollywood works."  I know, I replied, that's what my article for tomorrow is is about.  And then they kept describing all the things that don't make sense to them.  To which I replied -- again -- that's what's in my article.

For a very basic starting point on what's so ludicrous and ignorant about how moviemaking works in this tariff, from what Trump says here -- because he says very clearly that this is about "all movies that are made outside the United States" -- the tariffs will include foreign movies made by foreign filmmakers shot overseas in their foreign home countries that aren't stealing anything from America.  Nothing, zero.  And that makes absolutely no sense.  (Furthermore, if that's just a slip of the tongue and he doesn't mean those foreign-made movies, then it's even more loony since Trump is then giving an advantage to foreign filmmakers over Americans.)
 
But back to the very basic starting point, here's just one recent example why this is ludicrous and ignorant.  There are, oh..., a great many thousands others.
 
Two weeks ago, I watched the movie Hytti Nro 6 (Compartment No. 6), a production from Finland that won the Cannes Grand Prix award.  The story of film is “A Finnish student and an uncouth miner slowly forge a hesitant connection when they throw together in cramped train quarters on a journey across Russia.”
 
I can assure you with almost near-certainty that if Finland filmmakers hadn’t make the movie, no one in the Hollywood, or anywhere in the United States would have.  In fact, it’s possible that if you had suggested it, you might have been laughed out of the studio executive’s office, after which he would have told his secretary, “If you let that person back in my office ever again, you’re fired.”  Zero American jobs were lost because of Compartment No. 6.  Going further, I suspect every year at the Oscars, when the Best International Film category comes up, tens of millions of Americans watching the broadcast are thinking, “Why do they even have this category??  I’ve never heard of these movies.  And I will never watch them.  I hate foreign films.  It’s people sitting around in berets smoking cigarettes and pausing in silence for minutes on end."  And these are the best of the foreign-language films.  (And no, that’s not what foreign films are.  The best of them especially are often remarkable.  But still Hollywood wouldn’t make most of them.)  Occasionally, Hollywood does remake a great foreign film – though when they do, it’s make here in the Good Old U.S. of A, with Good Ol' Amurican actors and crews.
 
And as I noted, there are mountains of other examples.

For that matter, if a U.S.-financed movie is shot overseas, yes, the jobs on that film will mostly be foreign -- but the revenue made will go to the U.S. company, on which it will pay taxes.  Moreover, many, if not most, movies today have co-production deals with foreign companies for the overseas market.  Those (even though filmed in the U.S.) are not "made" outside of the U.S. -- but some of the revenue goes outside the country.
 
But this isn’t even the main stupidity and ignorance of Trump's 100% tariff.
 
The U.S. film and television industry -- from global box office, licensing, home video, and streaming services -- is one of the biggest international revenue industries in the United States.  From international box office alone, its revenues are around $34 billion.  It’s actually doing really well. No one is stealing anything from Hollywood.  The concept is laughable.  If anything, it’s long been the very opposite.
 
But further, if a U.S. studio has a story about romance in Paris or exploring 19th century Brazil, or ancient Roman ruins, where does Trump expect it to be made? Pacoima?  Also, yes, California has lost some productions, but they have gone to other U.S. states offering major tax concessions, not to Europe!  They're still in the United States!  (In fact, within the past month, California just passed a state law to provide tax breaks in order to combat what’s known as “runaway productions”.  That’s what was needed – not tariffs, for higher taxes on American consumers. 
 
And even more, the most ignorant thing about putting tariffs on movies made overseas, is that it’s far more likely to devastate movie theaters in the U.S. than studios. Studios don’t rely on U.S. movie theaters – and that was true long before COVID upended how people watch movies with streaming.  In fact, studios don’t even necessarily rely on the U.S. for revenue – as hugely important as the U.S., of course, is.  But the world market is 2-3 times bigger than the U.S. market. 
 
Oppenheimer made a massive $330 million in the U.S.  Overseas, it made $645 million.
 
Avator grossed an ungodly $785 million in the U.S.  Internationally, it made $2.1 billion.
 
(Its 2022 sequel made $684 in the U.S. Around the rest of the world, it took in $1.6 billion.
 
Barbie made $636 million in the U.S.  Overseas , it made $811 million.
 
You get the point.  Although, no, you probably don’t.  Because most people in Hollywood don’t really get it.  Here’s what I mean.
 
When they made Bridget Jones Diary, it grossed $71 million in the U.S.  But the sequel, Bridget Jones: Edge of Reason, was considered a big flop by Hollywood experts, only making a paltry $40 million here.  But if you’re wondering why they’ve made two other Bridget Jones movies – that’s because that Edge of Reason sequel gross $224 million internationally!!
 
Or better still – the sequel to the hit comedy Johnny English with Rowan Atkinson was called Johnny English Reborn.  And it only took in a threadbare $8 million in U.S.  It wasn’t just considered a flop by Hollywood so-called experts, but a massive disaster.  However, around the rest of the world, it made – are you ready? -- $151 million!!!  That’s why there was a third Johny English film.  (Alas, it made a microscopic $4 million in the U.S.  Although – and yes, you may have figured this was coming if  you’ve figured the point out by now – it made an additional $154 million overseas.
 
So, yes, Hollywood loves the U.S. market.  It's huge.  Important.  Very important.  But as a core, overriding, foundational principle, no, it doesn’t need it.  The world market is 2-3 times bigger, sometimes much more. That's something most people, including Trump, haven’t grasped.  It's U.S. movie theaters who need it.  
 
Though, putting aside how ignorant this is on moviemaking --  I'm not sure what Trump is putting a tariff on.  When a film is made overseas and the footage is "brought" into the U.S., does Trump think that product – the raw stock footage, or the digital content -- is then “sold” to Americans???  Of course it isn’t.  A copy is shown in theaters for the public to watch, or its streamed into homes.  They don’t even make DVDs to sell anymore.
 
For that matter, for all I know, films could be streamed from Europe without even going through Customs.
 
But there’s Trump, trying to pretend he’s an expert on everything, this time on Hollywood and moviemaking.  Not beginning to understand it, not understanding how really well it’s doing for the United States and much revenue it brings into the country.  Not understanding what “runaway productions” really are – nor understanding that taxes were just lowered to address the problem.
 
I was asked by someone what in the world the point was to put tariffs on movies made overseas.
 
There is none.  Because this action is so ludicrous that it borders on insane.  The closest I could figure is that it’s Trump’s dementia.  His existing tariffs have been horrible for the economy already, and haven’t even seriously kicked in yet.  And then he’s started to pour out more tariffs – and then added even more, on big trucks, upholstered furniture, kitchen cabinetry, and drugs.  And now…movies made overseas???!  Tariffs are all his dementia obsessed mind can focus on.  So, it keeps repeating, and we get more and more and more.  And it will get worse because dementia is degenerative.  And there’s no one he’s put around him who is competent to help him – if they even wanted to, at risk of losing their jobs.
 
And this is not just about Trump.  It’s about the MAGOPs in Congress who enable and support him.  And are unwilling to vote to stop Trump’s declare “emergency” and take back their Constitutionally mandated authority as the only branch of government who can create tariffs.