There were stories swirling yesterday that, based on a variety of clues, Robert Mueller may be wrapping up his investigation within a week or two. Of course, there have been such reports over the past six months (and longer), so such rumors don't carry a great deal of weight. However, the current "clues" are offering more weight than usual.
The two most notable are the timing of a new Attorney General who is on the record as being against the Special Counsel investigation, and also that quite a few members of Muller's team have apparently contacted their old firms about getting their jobs back. While coincidences of timing are rare, I also think it's important to look at this "clue" of a new Attorney General as being the horse before the cart. It's not that there is actual, known movement to end the investigation -- but rather a case of people seeing the new Attorney General and therefore drawing a conclusion by imposing that on other perceived "clues." A dog barked and the sun rose -- therefore the dog barking must have caused the sun to come up. In addition, there have been other times when lawyers in the Special Counsel's office have re-applied to their own firms. And at those times it wasn't because the Mueller investigation was ending (obviously), but rather because one portion of the investigation was concluded. And freed of that focus, Mueller then was able to move on to another part of it. Is that the case here? No idea, but the concept should at least be considered. There's also the "clue" that Michael Cohen will be testifying next week, which some analysts are suggesting wouldn't happen if Mueller wasn't finishing and therefore he gave his approval. Lost in this reasoning, though, is that Cohen was supposed to have testified weeks ago, but called it off himself. And only now he has agreed again to testify in public. And left out of almost all the analysis is a "clue" as to why the investigation is not ending. And that comes from a comment by, I believe, legal expert Harry Littman who said there are areas of the investigation that we know are active but not anywhere near concluded, most especially that Mueller hasn't yet interviewed Roger Stone, along with all the avenues of investigation that would come from that, So, we'll have to see how this all plays out and what the reality is. Amid all the discussion of this is angst over whether -- if the investigation is ending -- it is being shut down by the new Attorney General at the behest of Trump. For the sake of argument, let's say both issues are true. If so, yes, that would be awful in terms of the legal process (though perhaps another notch on the obstruction of justice belt). But I'm not sure if the situation would be as angst-ridden in terms of the evidence. Keep in mind that Robert Mueller has been conducting this investigation for over two years. Shutting down early doesn't mean that all that massive material doesn't exist. It's in stacks just waiting to be released. And it's hard to imagine that that massive material isn't focused on Trump, Don Jr., Jared Kusher and other White House insiders. That Mueller hasn't indicted any of them yet (or named Trump as an unindicted co-conspirator, doesn't mean he doesn't have the information to do so. It could mean that, but it could just as likely -- if not more so -- meant merely that he hasn't done so yet because he's building his cases to be even stronger by going down as many avenues as possible. And then, of course, there are the Justice Department's investigations by the Southern District of New York, and the growing piles of investigations by a growing range of House committees. So, if the Special Counsel's investigation is ending, and if it's because the Attorney General is shutting it down, there should be great anger, but no angst. There is a tsunami coming from a wide range of directions, I'm certain of it. How much of it we'll see, no one can be certain. But tsunamis leave devastation in their wake. The SDNY's report and indictments will be known. The House hearings and reports will be known. And even if the Attorney General blocks the Special Counsel's report, I suspect at least some of that will make its way out. The American public would be too utterly outraged by a total blackout. Some may leak out to elected officials by members of the Justice Department furious at the obstruction of justice. Some will get subpoenaed by the House committees. Some will be dug out by reporters going for a Pulitzer Prize. Some may get released in redacted form. And...in the end -- most of it may ultimately see the light of day and get released. Or not. But for all those reasons above and more, I suspect it just doesn't stand a chance of being fully or even mostly hidden Tsunamis leave devastation in their wake.
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AuthorRobert J. Elisberg is a political commentator, screenwriter, novelist, tech writer and also some other things that I just tend to keep forgetting. Feedspot Badge of Honor
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