On Wednesday, a friend called me – a bit distressed (not to the point of panic) – to ask if I’d heard that people were saying Joe Manchin was thinking of dropping out of the Democratic Party. I said, yes, but that it wasn’t a case of “people were saying,” but that one reporter, David Corn, had written an article about it for Mother Jones. That doesn’t make it untrue – actually, he’s an excellent reporter – just proper perspective.
What I said beyond that, though, was that while it’s always been possible that Machin could quit the Democratic Party, something I’ve written about often on social media when people get especially vociferous about Manchin and call him a Republican, it’s also something I consider unlikely. It really takes a great deal for a politician in Congress to switch parties, that they just are so deeply out of step with their party and have much more in kinship with the other. And Manchin’s been a lifelong Democrat in a deeply Red state that voted for Trump by 40 points, so being “so deeply out of step” is second nature to him. If he felt the Republican Party had more to offer him, he had decades to switch and make his life easier for himself in West Virginia, yet he stayed a Democrat and was elected the Secretary of State and then Governor – and then U.S. Senator. And it’s not like he’s grown closer to today’s GOP, since it’s been moving so far to the right that it’s now fascist. So, I don’t expect Joe Manchin to switch and become a Republican. Not just for the reasons above, but especially too since he knows that would mean his lifelong party losing control of the Senate and turning leadership over to Mitch McConnel and all committee chairmanships to Republicans. He certainly could become a Republican – I just think it’s deeply unlikely. What I think is more likely if he drops out of the Democratic Party – and again, I reiterate that that’s an “if” and something I think unlikely -- it’s that he would do so and become an Independent. And if he did that, I told my friend that I was sure he would still caucus with Democrats (like Sen. Angus King of Maine does), which would keep the 50 vote plus Vice President majority with the Democratic Party. Consider: Joe Manchin was given the opportunity by Majority Leader Schumer to put together his own version of a voting rights bill and developed one that he was certain could attract enough Republican votes to pass. He got zero votes from Republicans -- not zero to vote for his bill, but to merely just debate it. Earlier in the year, when the Democrat's $1.9 trillion Stimulus Bill passed, Manchin voted for it. Zero Republicans did. As much as many Democratic voters want to think Joe Manchin is a "Republican," in the real world, he's not even close. He's a moderate to conservative Democrat. And today's fascist Republican Party is at odds with much of what Manchin has been his long political career. That’s what I said on Wednesday. Then yesterday, I saw an interview with the author of the story, David Corn, who said the same thing. That if Joe Manchin dropped out of the Democratic Party, he’d still caucus with them. What Corn also said is that it’s possible Machin has said different things to different people. So, he may have told other Democrats as forcefully as he told the press on Wednesday that he wasn’t leaving the party. And Corn added that Manchin may also have said to others the more toned-down story he told reporters earlier in the day, that he told Majority Leader Chuck Schumer if it was ever an embarrassment and caused problems for Democrats to have him in the party, he’d step aside as an Independent. (In fact, he himself added that if Schumer ever wanted him to do that...he'd caucus with the Democrats.) Corn additionally stood by his own reporting that Manchin told at least some people that if he didn’t get what he wanted, he’d considered dropping out of the Party – though even that could have been a negotiating ploy. The point being that all three could be true. The additional point is that even if Joe Manchin dropped out of the Democratic Party (which, again, I doubt will happen), he will continue to caucus with the party, and Democrats will hold their majority in this Congress.
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AuthorRobert J. Elisberg is a political commentator, screenwriter, novelist, tech writer and also some other things that I just tend to keep forgetting. Feedspot Badge of Honor
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