The Colbert Busch Report

Though you might likely be aware that Elizabeth Colbert Busch (best known officially as "Stephen Colbert's sister") is running for Congress in South Carolina's First District against former governor Mark Sanford, you might have no idea how the race is going.  Well, giving you all the late-breaking news here at Election Central, at the moment a poll has her ahead by nine points, 50-41.  It was conducted by Public Policy Polling, which is a Democratic firm.  However, PPP has a pretty good track record for accuracy.

In the last poll in March, Colbert Busch was also up, but only by two points.  There have been a few changes since then.  One is that a complaint was filed against Mr. Sanford for trespassing at the home of his ex-wife, when he says he went there to watch the Super Bowl with his son who was alone.  Another change is that a Green Party candidate has entered the race and picked up three points.  A third change is that people have likely gotten to known Ms. Colbert Busch better.  Also causing problem for the former Republican governor is that he only has a 38-percent favorable rating in the district.

If the poll is accurate, it points to a big problem for Mark Sanford since the election is in only 15 days, on May 7, so there isn't much time to make up an almost double-digit deficit.  The last time South Carolina voters elected a Democrat to Congress in the First District was 1981.