Reversal of Fortune

After everything going against him the whole race, a new PPP poll surprisingly shows that former Gov. Mark Sanford (R-SC) has pulled one point ahead of his Democratic challenger Elizabeth Colbert Busch, who had been up by nine points only two weeks earlier, in the race for Congress.  With the 2.8% margin of error, this is a statistical tie.  Or Ms. Colbert Busch is up by two points.  Or Mr. Sanford is up by four points.

According to the polling organization, the former governor has had success painting his opponent as a liberal.  Ms. Colbert Busch saw her favorable opinion drop 56-31% to 50-44%.  That's still +6, of course.  And it remains the biggest hurdle for Mr. Sanford, whose favorable rating remains negative and about the same as before, at 43%-54%, for -11. 

On the one hand, this bodes well for the former governor, since he's moving in the positive director and his opponent is dropping.  On the other hand, it bodes well for Ms. Colbert Busch, since polls tend to suggest that when a known candidate (as is Sanford) has a negative favorability -- and by -11 points -- then public ultimately won't vote for that person when they actually enter the ballot booth.

The election for South Carolina's First District is tomorrow.  What this means is that either Elizabeth Colbert Busch will will, or Mr. Sanford will win.  Or -- congressional districts are too small a sample to poll.  Or not.