Polls Apart

I’ve long felt that single polls without context have limited meaning.  It’s only when other polls corroborate them or what the trend of the poll is that they have the most substance.
 
So, on the heels of the ABC/Washington Post poll last week showing Trump dropping to a 36% approval, it was a joy to see the Qunnipiac poll yesterday giving him only a 38% approval.  And a mere 32% of Americans think that Trump is honest and trustworthy.  Oddly-enough, that may be the most significant number.  People’s approval regularly go up or down – but I suspect there’s little that Trump can do in the coming days to make people think that finally he has changed who he is and suddenly become honest.  I would think that that number can only go down, as myopic hold-outs at last see the light, have their 'Ohhhh, I get it now" moment, and become convinced.  Indeed, that's already started to happen, as the number is already down six points from the last study.
 
And following on the heels of Quinnipiac, a new CNN poll has Trump’s approval at the same close-range as theirs, 36% -- the exact same as ABC/WaPo last week -- and a figure that importantly is down significantly from their previous 42%.
 
So, what we have are not only terrible numbers for him, but the trend is extremely bad, as well.  The problematic Daily Double.
 
And as for trends, this is worse –
 
That CNN poll says just 31% of all-important Independent voters in the middle now approve of Trump's job performance.  What's significant is that only last month that number was 47%!  That's a drop of over a third, almost unprecedented.

By the way, keep in mind that there is probably 20% of the public who will support Trump for EVERYTHING, no matter what he says and does.  People who might actually support him even if he shot the proverbial person on 5th Avenue.  So, 20% is pretty much the foundation that Trump support is not going to be under.  To therefore have only 36% approval -- let alone merely 32% who find him honest and trustworthy -- is horrific,
 
And this is before Bob Woodward’s book is officially published.  And before higher health care costs are felt.  And higher costs from tariffs are felt.  And before results from the second trial of the already-convicted Paul Manafort.  And before there are more defections by administration officials to save their necks.  And before North Korea keeps abusing the disastrous Trump deal.  And even more problems start to fray without anyone in the administration with competence  or experience to deal with him.  And before President Barack Obama hits the campaign trail in full.  And…and…and…

To be clear, these are just poll numbers.  And while people should pay attention to them -- one shouldn't rely on them. Polls change, and it's only votes that matter.  Still, it's always important to act from a foundation of strength and confidence, because people see that in your actions.

In the meantime, days after Nike announced its Colin Kaepernick ad campaign, which got reviled by the far right, as some of the outraged souls said they were boycotting the company and others even burned their Nike gear, online sales for Nike went up 31%. 

(I have a quip theory about that -- many of the people who burned their Nike gear woke up the next morning, looked around their closest and realized, "Oh, my God!  I destroyed all of my Nike gear!!!" -- and quickly went online to reorder it...)

​Still, amid all this news about dropping poll numbers, it's good to see some numbers go up...