Elisberg Industries
  • Home
  • Blog
  • Products
    • Books
    • Movies
  • About Elisberg Industries
    • Our Corporate Board
    • Information Overstock
    • Elisberg Industries Entertainment Information
    • Elisberg Statistical Center of American Research
    • Consultancy Service
  • Contact
    • How to Find Us
  • Kudos
  • Good Things to Know
    • The BOB Page
    • Sites You Might Actually Like
Decent Quality Since 1847

Polls Apart

7/31/2019

0 Comments

 
Yesterday, I came across a very interesting, different take on polling.
 
What this map does is look at Trump NOT by “Who will you vote for?” but  his approval rating state-by-state in all 50 states.  It was done after Mueller's testimony from Civiqs daily tracking polls and then converted from approval  ratings into an Electoral College format.  In other words, if Trump has a strong disapproval in a state, it’s marked heavy Blue.  Solid disapproval in a state will color that state in basic Blue.  Narrow disapproval is light Blue.  And conversely, states where Trump has a positive approval are colored dark Red and so on.
 
To be very clear, none of this is meaningful.  But it gives an indication of where things stand at the moment. 
 
In the top categories of Strong Approval and Strong Disapproval, Democrats lead in “Electoral votes” compared to Trump by 216-62.  (270 is needed to be elected.)  In all categories regardless of how strong the approval and disapproval is, Democrats lead in “Electoral votes” by 374-164.
 
Again, this isn’t meaningful.  Further, it's 15 months before people actually vote.  And we know that for Democrats to win they not only have to stay strong, focused and aggressive, but perhaps more than anything can take absolutely nothing for granted.  But it’s better to be on the 374 side than 164.

And given how Trump clearly has a strategy to appeal solely to his racist base and not reach out to moderates, it’s going to be incredibly difficult for him bring his numbers up and bridge that gap.  Making his problem worse, his additional hurdle is that if for some bizarre reason he does try to appeal to moderates, he’s painted himself into such a corner that he’d now probably lose support from his racist base.)

Picture

​More meaningful, though, is one particular result in a Quinnipiac Poll this week.  Most media covered the Quinnipiac results of where things stood in the Democratic primary race, but the one number that stood out for me was different.  It was how likely people were to vote for Trump.  And 32% said that they would absolutely vote for him.  That's low, but basic for starting foundation.  However, more notable is that on the other end of the equation, the number isn't similar -- rather, a massive 54% said that they would NEVER vote for Trump.  As one long-time campaign official said, the hardest figure to change is “I will never vote for a candidate”. 

Now, of course, we don’t elect a president by popular vote.  But in 2016, Hillary Clinton got 48% of the vote – so there is a 6-point increase that has to come from somewhere.  Now, of course, some of this number could come from states that are already heavy-Blue.  However, it doesn’t seem likely that there would be much increase from a state that is heavy Blue.  Being so-heavily Democratic, they likely already got most of their Democratic votes.  Yes, those states could conceivably pick up some support from alienated Republicans.  But if that's true, it can be true in any state for any Republican.  So, it seems more likely that the increase is spread across the board in all states, especially those that were the most toss-up, people who had voted for Obama but switched to Trump, or independents who voted Republican.

 
Again, none of even this is substantive.  But having 54% saying that they would NEVER vote for Trump – however that number is derived – is a very strong starting point for Democrats and has to be a concerning issue for Republicans.
0 Comments



Leave a Reply.

    Picture
    Picture
    Elisberg Industries gets a commission if you click here before shopping on Amazon.
    Picture
    Follow @relisberg

    Author

    Robert J. Elisberg is a political commentator, screenwriter, novelist, tech writer and also some other things that I just tend to keep forgetting. 

    Elisberg is a two-time recipient of the Lucille Ball Award for comedy screenwriting. He's written for film, TV, the stage, and two best-selling novels, is a regular columnist for the Writers Guild of America and was for
    the Huffington Post.  Among his other writing, he has a long-time column on technology (which he sometimes understands), and co-wrote a book on world travel.  As a lyricist, he is a member of ASCAP, and has contributed to numerous publications.



    Picture
           Feedspot Badge of Honor

    Archives

    March 2023
    February 2023
    January 2023
    December 2022
    November 2022
    October 2022
    September 2022
    August 2022
    July 2022
    June 2022
    May 2022
    April 2022
    March 2022
    February 2022
    January 2022
    December 2021
    November 2021
    October 2021
    September 2021
    August 2021
    July 2021
    June 2021
    May 2021
    April 2021
    March 2021
    February 2021
    January 2021
    December 2020
    November 2020
    October 2020
    September 2020
    August 2020
    July 2020
    June 2020
    May 2020
    April 2020
    March 2020
    February 2020
    January 2020
    December 2019
    November 2019
    October 2019
    September 2019
    August 2019
    July 2019
    June 2019
    May 2019
    April 2019
    March 2019
    February 2019
    January 2019
    December 2018
    November 2018
    October 2018
    September 2018
    August 2018
    July 2018
    June 2018
    May 2018
    April 2018
    March 2018
    February 2018
    January 2018
    December 2017
    November 2017
    October 2017
    September 2017
    August 2017
    July 2017
    June 2017
    May 2017
    April 2017
    March 2017
    February 2017
    January 2017
    December 2016
    November 2016
    October 2016
    September 2016
    August 2016
    July 2016
    June 2016
    May 2016
    April 2016
    March 2016
    February 2016
    January 2016
    December 2015
    November 2015
    October 2015
    September 2015
    August 2015
    July 2015
    June 2015
    May 2015
    April 2015
    March 2015
    February 2015
    January 2015
    December 2014
    November 2014
    October 2014
    September 2014
    August 2014
    July 2014
    June 2014
    May 2014
    April 2014
    March 2014
    February 2014
    January 2014
    December 2013
    November 2013
    October 2013
    September 2013
    August 2013
    July 2013
    June 2013
    May 2013
    April 2013
    March 2013
    February 2013
    January 2013

    Categories

    All
    Animals
    Audio
    Audio Land
    Books
    Busienss
    Business
    Chicago
    Consumer Product
    Education
    Email Interview
    Entertainment
    Environment
    Fine Art
    Food
    From The Management
    Health
    History
    Huffery
    Humor
    International
    Internet
    Journalism
    Law
    Los Angeles
    Media
    Morning News Round Up
    Movies
    Music
    Musical
    Personal
    Photograph
    Piano Puzzler
    Politics
    Popular Culture
    Profiles
    Quote Of The Day
    Radio
    Religion
    Restaurants
    Science
    Sports
    Technology
    Tech Tip
    Theater
    The Writers Workbench
    Tidbits
    Travel
    Tv
    Twitter
    Video
    Videology
    Well Worth Reading
    Words-o-wisdom
    Writing

    RSS Feed

© Copyright Robert J. Elisberg 2023
Contact Us    About EI    Chicago Cubs
  • Home
  • Blog
  • Products
    • Books
    • Movies
  • About Elisberg Industries
    • Our Corporate Board
    • Information Overstock
    • Elisberg Industries Entertainment Information
    • Elisberg Statistical Center of American Research
    • Consultancy Service
  • Contact
    • How to Find Us
  • Kudos
  • Good Things to Know
    • The BOB Page
    • Sites You Might Actually Like