NBC News released a poll yesterday, and it had two numbers that leaped out to me. Both of them of positive note for Democrats. There's a caveat to all this, of course, and it's that this is just one poll. But let's dive in.
The first intriguing number was about the Enthusiasm Gap, which measures how much members of a party are excited about voting in the coming election. A few months ago, the Gap favored the Republican Party by a substantial 17 points. Today, Republicans still have the lead, but it’s been cut to just 2 points. It’s not that, with the margin of error, that is essentially tied, but more important it shows that the trend – which is always among the most critical things in a poll – is heavily favoring the Democrats. On the chart, GOP numbers were steady, but Democratic numbers were heading upwards in a fairly-steady diagonal angle. That may even out, but if not, if that trend builds on itself, since enthusiasm breeds enthusiasm, then the Enthusiasm Gap couple not only favor Democrats in 78 days but have a substantial advantage. It’s important, too, to keep in mind that voting will start earlier than 78 days, so the “enthusiasm” doesn’t have to be maintained as long. We read about how the search of Mar-a-Lago has energized Republican voters. While I’m sure that’s true, three things have to be kept in mind. The first is that I suspect most people who are most energized by Trump getting a search warrant are people who were heavy supporters of him already and planning to vote anyway. The second is that the NBC News poll was competed after the search warrant was issued, so any Enthusiasm Gap numbers for “outraged” Republicans are built into the results. And they show that Democrats have cut the gap by 15 points and are just 2 points behind. And the third thing is that the poll showed that a strong majority of registered voters support the search of Trump. A full 57% of registered voters say that the investigations of Trump should continue, while just 40% say they should stop. That’s not a divided opinion. In an election it would be nearing landslide territory. The second poll number that leaped was the even-more surprising one. That when voters were asked to rank the issues that they thought were the most important facing the country. And not only was “Threats to democracy” now on the list of concerns – but it was also the Number One issue. Yes, that means it was above “Cost of living” and “jobs and the economy.” I was amazed just to see it mentioned at all, I’m absolutely boggled that it was listed first. And listed first by a notable amount. “Threats to democracy” was named by 21% as the most important issue facing the United States today, while “Cost of living” was listed by 16%. (“Jobs and the economy” was at 14%.) I think it’s important to remember, too, that people don’t only vote on what the “most important” issue is to them, but a collection of issues. So, while “abortion” was named by only 8% of respondents as the most important issue, I have to suspect that those 8% are highly-motivated voters. The short version is that while the economy and inflation will always be highly critical issues to voters, the fact that “threats to democracy” is at the top of the radar means that the top issue that Republicans were counting on, inflation, has been taken away from them. Further, I am sure that the “threat” to democracy people are referring to is growing GOP conservative fascism. Could it mean “liberals”? Honestly, no, I don’t think so. Republicans have long railed against liberals and supposed socialism and commies – and it’s never registered on the polls at all as a threat that is most important to the country. So when the “threat to democracy” suddenly does show up on the poll (let alone as Number One), then it must be something else. And that “something else” has to stem from the growing concern over voter suppression, repealing the Constitutional right to abortion, threat of repealing the Constitutional right of same-sex marriage, threat of repealing the Constitutional right of contraceptives, threat of Republicans refusing to accept election results, not just from 2020 but in elections across the country since then, including their own primaries, the threat of Trump taking sensitive documents from the government and more. The only downside from the poll is that President Biden hasn’t seem to pick up any support from all the major Democratic bills that have passed recently. His approval stands at 42%. And this is in line with Nate Silver’s fivethirtyeight.com that has his approval rating at 41%. And since this NBC News number is steady, then as low as it is, he seems to have stopped it from dropping. (Actually, if we look at Nate Silver's weighted polls, it's even better for Biden and appears that Democratic successes are having an impact, and his approval is going up. That's because a month ago, the fivethirtyeight.com approval number was 37.5%.) To be clear, as I said at the start, for all these NBC News results, it's just one poll. And one poll of anything is borderline meaningless. But it’s certainly better for Democrats to have these results as your starting point than the other way around. And the NBC News poll has a B+ rating by fivethirtyeight.com. Yes, it’s odd that “threat to democracy” is actually seen as a good thing. But then, if there’s a spark that flares up in your home which is at threat of bursting into flames, it’s a good thing that people notice it – and are getting enthusiastic to do something about it.
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AuthorRobert J. Elisberg is a political commentator, screenwriter, novelist, tech writer and also some other things that I just tend to keep forgetting. Feedspot Badge of Honor
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