Polls Apart

For a long while now, the media has been writing stories about the support he has today from black voters, which is very high (around 69%) but not as high as the 87% who voted for him in 2020.  The focus became particularly prominent in relation to the South Carolina primary.  And that's understandable ​because the black community is one of President Biden's most important constituencies.  If that has a big drop-off, not that they'd all or even many would go vote for Trump, but choose not to vote, it could cause problems for his campaign.

However, one thing missing from the ongoing reporting which I'd love to see, but haven't, is an "apples-to-apples" poll.  All the polls I've seen thus far have been to look at his numbers now in comparison to the results he got actually voting for him in the 2020 election.  But those are two entirely different fish.  

Right now, 10 months from the election, people are more voicing their approval of the president and "What has he done for me during his time in office?"  But when it comes to voting, once there are two official nominees, with the election a month or two away, people not only become far more focused on the candidates and the issues, but much more importantly voters also know that one of these two people will be the next President of the Untied States, so even if you have problems with one of the candidates, you might be well-aware that the other is worse.  Or, in the case for black voters especially with Trump as the alternative, and you have to mark your ballot, massively worse.

Furthermore, I would think it not only likely, but near-certain that almost any sitting president's support among any constituency would be higher when they actually cast a vote in a re-election than when merely being polled three years after being in office, when voters are prone to voice their frustrations to a pollster.  Until being required to decide whether they instead want to vote for The Other Guy.  Who, in this case, with this constituency, The Other Guys is not only same guy they didn't vote for before but is a racist who enables white supremacists and takes pride in claiming he's responsible for getting rid of abortion and tried to overthrow the government and still complains he won, while having been found liable for the equivalence of rape. 

So, looking at Joe Biden's poll numbers with black voters right now in February 2024 before the election (when he and Trump are not yet on the same ballot) and comparing those numbers -- not to how people ultimately voted three years earlier, but rather -- to what his poll numbers were with black voters in an equivalent situation back in February 2020 before the election (when, like now, he and Trump were not yet on the same ballot) would seem to be a much more interesting and meaningful contrast.

I have no idea what Joe Biden's poll numbers among black voters were four years ago at this time.  Perhaps the difference would be huge to what he's polling now, but for all I know it was even less.  And certainly, Joe Biden wasn't president then like he is now, so, the situation, of course, is not the same.  But still, comparing poll to poll is "more" the same than comparing poll to vote.  Polls are flexible, voting is definitive, no changing your mind, one of these two guys will be the next president.  And if I had to guess -- and it's just a pure guess -- in February 2020, Joe Biden was not yet getting anything in polls remotely close to the 87% support from black voters who (after hearing Trump campaign, being horrified by him and liking Biden) ended up voting for Biden that November.

Biden still has to raise his support among Black voters.  But it does not at least seem unreasonable that, once there are two official nominees and voters begin to focus on the election and Trump's racism, white supremacist support, echoes of Hitler and lunacy come back into full focus, Biden will be able to do that.