I follow Nate Silver's 538.com website pretty steady, checking it several times a day. He's more conservative than most of the other aggregators, but I don't necessarily think that's a bad thing, especially when his track record is so impressive. Perhaps the results are what he has come up with. Perhaps he's a little low, and the others are a little high, and it's somewhere in between. We'll see soon.
I've noted something very interesting in his polls. For the past two weeks, and especially after the first FBI email "discovery," Hillary Clinton's odds of winning went steadily down from around 78% to 64.5%. However, since the new FBI report that "cleared" her, her odds of winning have steadily gone up. And in only one day, it's now 70.9%. To go up 6.4 point in just one day is remarkable.
Now, I can't say it's all because of the new FBI report, but the timing makes it hard to think that's not some connection. But whatever the reason...going up 6.4 points the day before the election is significant momentum. Especially when you're hitting 71% change of winning. Hopefully that will impact the down-ticket races, as well, particularly the Senate. We'll see...
Robert J. Elisberg is a political commentator, screenwriter, novelist, tech writer and also some other things that I just tend to keep forgetting.
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