Of Primary Interest

​Tuesday was a big election night, at least for television.  But it was all primary races, and therefore, though there were many interesting results, only two national races were of any notable importance, both of them in Texas.  And of those two, only one of them was of particular significance – for me, for a reason I’ll explain.  (Still, I love watching Election Return Nights, even for primaries in all the various races.  So, it a joy, regardless.)

There was also a surprise twist, though, and it was in Texas, too.  Because – hey, it’s Texas. Texans love to swagger, "Don't mess with Texas."  I think the "mess" part they're referring to is how they run elections. 

The Senate primaries in North Carolina were completely as expected.  Roy Cooper got 92% of the Democratic vote.  And MAGOP Michael Whatley won, as expected – though only with 65% of the vote.  Given that North Carolina is considered the state most likely to flip (in this case from Red to Blue), Whatley’s less-than-overwhelming support doesn’t help him.  Cooper is the state’s former Governor and Attorney General and is hugely popular in the state – running in a year when Democrats are heavily outperforming their past results from the unpopularity of the Trump administration.  Whatley, by contrast, is the former head of the Republican National Committee.

Arkansas also held Senate primaries.  But even in this year that appears to be leaning toward a Blue tsunami, this is…Arkansas.  And it seems improbable that incumbent Senator Tom Cotton – who won re-election in 2020 by 33 points…and he didn’t even have a Democratic opponent, but a Libertarian – will not win.

That leaves the two Senate primaries in Texas.

By the way, before we get to that, it’s important to note that there are House and gubernatorial races in all three states, but almost none are under national focus.  Perhaps the only is in…well, Texas again.  But even there, the results are as anticipated.  Gov. Greg Abbott easily won his MAGOP primary for another term, and the expected Democratic opponent Gina Hinojosa was nominated.  The reason why this race has at least some national significance is for what it says about Texas – and that’s that polling shows a general election race between Abbott and Hinjosa fairly close.

So, back to those two Texas primaries.

Of the two, the only one that had the most impact on the general election race – for me – is the MAGOP one.  I say that for a slightly disingenuous reason.  After all, I am extremely interested who wins the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate.  But why it doesn’t have the most impact on the general election – for me – is that I like both candidates.  So, it’s a no-lose situation for me.

I think Jasmine Crockett is great.  A dynamic, outspoken, blunt member of Congress.  As Michael Steele described her last night, “Brazen, bold, in your face.”  And I’d be extremely happy if she won.  The only thing is that, as a dynamic person, she’s a firebrand, and in Red Texas, I don’t know if that’s what is needed in the state to bring unhappy MAGOP voters to leave their party and vote Democratic.  “I don’t know” is the operative term.  Maybe she can.  “Bold” can be a good thing at times, especially in this election year where Trump’s approval in Texas is actually under 50%, around 48%.

James Talarico, on the other hand, is not only a statehouse representative, he’s also a Presbyterian seminarian and has a very nurturing way about him that is very impactful for reaching across party lines, and – I think – in a state like Texas, he may have a better chance of attracting MAGOPs angry at their party.  The downside for me with him is that religion is very important to his politics, which I don’t like mixed in politics, whatever the religion.  They should be separate.  That said, I find that as much as his religion drives him, I don’t find him at all evangelical about it, trying to impose his religion on others, just using it often to inform his liberal politics.

So, either way, I like them both.  And whoever wins.  My one other reaction, though – oddly – is not about who wins, but loses.  As I said, I think Jasmine Crockett is great, and it’s a shame that she got gerrymandered out of her district – and if she doesn’t get the nomination, she’ll be out of politics, which would be a great disappointment.  I don’t feel that as strongly for Talarico.  Though I hope they both stay in politics, whoever doesn’t advance.

That makes the MAGOP primary the one I find most interesting.  I dislike both of the main candidates.  Incumbent Sen. John Cornyn votes with Trump about 99% of the time.  Though, because he’s voted against Trump that 1%, he’s not viewed as True Red, while Ken Paxton (the sitting Attorney General) is pure MAGA, a Trump guy to the core.  But he’s so awful, overloaded with baggage – as an analyst said last night, he has political, legal and moral problems.  And as such, it’s believed that if he gets the MAGOP nomination, he’s more disliked throughout all of Texas, and is seen as the one Democrats have a better chance of defeating in the general election.  I usually don’t like hoping “the horrible” but easier candidate to beat gets nominated against a candidate I support, just because on the unlikely chance something unexpected happens and he or she wins.  But in this case, not only would Paxton be the better candidate for Democrats to run again, but – getting the nomination means he would have to stop being the Texas Attorney General.

It’s a fascinating race because there’s a third MAGOP candidate with no chance, getting only about 13% -- but that means that neither Cornyn or Paxton will likely get the 50% needed to avoid a run-off.  But why this is fascinating is because one analyst said about 12% of MAGOPs have apparently registered as Democrats to vote in this primary.  And the analyst noted that these are most likely people who would otherwise vote for Cornyn.  But if there’s a run-off, because they’re registered as Democrats…they won’t be allowed to vote in the run-off!  Which means, the analyst said, it will be very hard for Cornyn to win, if he doesn’t get 50% in the primary.  And he only got 43% on Tuesday, the race has been called for a run-off.

By the way, related to this, Democratic early voting was massively up in Texas, and MAGOP voting was not.

Which leaves the surprise twist.

I won’t go into details too much, since they’re convoluted.  But it’s the result of the “twist” that is meaningful.

The short version is that Texas has long had countywide voting, where you can vote in any polling place in your county.  MAGOPs would go along with that, so it changed.  As a result, there was a lot of confusion in Dallas County (in large part because the Texas Secretary of State’s website left out this information for Dallas…)  And so a judge issued an order to allow voting to continue there for another two hours.  Then came the twist:  Ken Paxton – who of course is running for the Senate, but is also the Attorney General – asked the Texas Supreme Court to overturn that court order.  They didn’t overturn the ruling, but did issue a temporary block, saying that all “late” votes should be counted, but kept separate and not included in the results until a later hearing determines what should be done.

This is believed to most-hurt Jasmine Crockett because the district she represents in Congress is in Dallas County.  She issued a blistering statement – and James Talarico also said that "All votes must be counted.  Every voice must be heard."

The interesting result of this is that, whoever ends up winning the Democratic primary, this attempt to create chaos and uncertainty in the election process is most likely to hurt the MAGOPs in the general election.  Already, in her statement, Jasmine Crockett said that this is specifically what MAGOPs do, always trying to disenfranchise voters from participating. 

“This effort to suppress the vote,” she said, “to confuse and inconvenience voters is having its intended effect as people are being turned away from the polls.”  Adding, ““It is wrong for it to be done to anyone — a Democrat or a Republican. But the Republicans didn’t even have enough sense to do that.”

So, if Democrats can keep drilling that message in, especially if it’s Ken Paxton who ends up being the MAGOP nominee, it could possibly – as Michael Steele, former Republican Party National Chairman, said more bluntly – “give the election to Democrats.”

The thing is, it’s not yet know if these “provisional” ballots will necessarily make a difference. If, after all the “official” votes are counted, James Talarico is ahead by more votes than there are “provisional” votes (an “if”, since for all we know, he might not even be ahead at all -- at the moment, as I write this around 11:30 PM Texas time -- he's ahead by 140,000 votes, but there's still 22% of votes left to count; most day-of voting, which is believed to mostly help Crockett, haven't been counted yet; and most votes haven't yet been counted in Dallas County which is Crockett's base), then the “provisional” votes won’t matter.  Yet the Ken Paxton/MAGOP effort to block voting is still likely to remain a significant issue, added to everything else, that all the Democratic candidates in Texas run on in November.

What Democrats should add as a slogan is "Don't Mess with Texas -- Republicans Can Mess It Up Here All by Themselves."

Or perhaps even better:  "When we say, 'Don't Mess with Texas,' It's the Republican Party We're Talking To."

I will add one state race that seems very significant, too.  It's for the North Carolina statehouse.  One of the most powerful MAGOPs in the state, Phil Berger, has been the Senate President for 15 years.  He raised millions of dollars and had Trump's endorsement.  His opponent was Sam Page -- who has been a sheriff for 28 years, led Sheriffs for Trump in 2016 and was the President’s N.C. Campaign Chair in 2020, but raised only $45,000 through the end of 2025. And didn't get Trump's endorsement.  But he ran as an outsider against the political establishment.  And -- for the moment -- Paige won the primary...but just two votes!  There will obviously be a recount.  But the fact that an establishment, powerful MAGOP with Trump's endorsement is (at worst) in a tie with an outsider, speaks loudly to disaffection with today's MAGOPs, even within the party.  This is terrible news for the MAGOP.  Which helps explain why, thus far, Democrats have gained an average of 16 points in every Special Election since Trump took office.

Updates as they occur.