Of Primary Importance

What stood out the most for me about the three primaries on Tuesday is how many people voted in the middle of a pandemic.  More than anything, it shows how energized Democrats are to vote, bursting at the seams after three years to get Trump out of office.

It's not that they all showed up at the polls yesterday -- a lot did -- but I'm actually glad that most didn't, showing the viability of other ways to vote which is seriously impactful for the general election.  In Illinois, for instance, they broke a 75-year-old record from WWII for voting-by mail applications.  And they also set a record for early voting at the polls, breaking the previous record set in 2016.  As it happens, the state even did well on Election Day -- it started very slow but picked up significantly later. 

(Honestly, I had very mixed feelings about in-person voting on Tuesday in all three states.  I'm glad it took the Democratic race to the next level, but it was very risky.  Of course, there's no guarantee that conditions would be better in 2-3 months, and they could be worse.  But still.  Hopefully, though, as I said, this will all be a foundation for setting up vote-by-mail for November.)

As for the results, the race certainly appears to be over.  Joe Biden has not only swamped Bernie Sanders in about 15 of the last 20 races -- and the ones Sanders won were reasonably close -- but he's now ahead by 317 delegates at the time of writing, and only about 800 short of earning the nomination.  More to the point, it's hard to imagine that the public has its mind strongly on the primary, with the margin being so wide and the pandemic disrupting life.  It's just had to imagine Sanders turning things around at this point, having to win with his own regular landslides, when none are on the horizon.

As I wrote the other day, I suggested that when Bernie Sanders decides to drop out of the race, he should say that he’s getting out because he doesn't want to put the public at any additional risk from the health crisis by continuing the primaries when his path was so challenging.  And he should add that it was time to unite the party to defeat Trump.  As I noted, this would give him a graceful way out, it would make him a hero to his supporters who wouldn't have to acknowledge defeat, and would make him noble in the eyes of his opponents.  What occurred to me last night, though, was a new thought – that I think the opposite could kick in if he doesn’t withdraw.  If Sanders stays in the race and prolongs the primaries – and most especially prolongs it during this health crisis -- I could see him really infuriating a lot of people and lose even more support.  Not just for future 2020 primaries, but of his whole agenda for the future beyond this election.

In the end, I think it's pretty clear that it is ​the end.  When Bernie Sanders decide to plant the stake and how he announces it are the questions that remain.