Yesterday, a friend asked what my reaction was about the NBC poll showing Trump 4 points behind Biden, just as in 2020? He noted that this would give Trump more independents than he thought would be the case. And added how it’s other-worldly to believe that after everything that's happened, everything we know, how anyone other than the most cultish GOP base could actually vote to put him back into the Oval office. How could 80% of women oppose Dobbs and 60% of all voters find his behavior deserving of criminal indictment, he asked, and have that translate into a mere 4 point edge for Biden?
Much as I wish the margin was larger, indeed massive, and I’m sorry to see it as close as it is, I don’t give this poll much thought, bordering on zero. My only reaction is a bit of general surprise, rather than it having the slightest impact in terms of the election. (And even at that, I don’t think I’d have expected more than a 10-point difference. So, 4 points is not only in semi-range, but maybe even close given margin of error.) This is SO far out from the election. Most people aren’t even thinking about it yet. There are no nominees. And so, I don’t sense this is really a head-to-head match-up poll, but more Biden’s numbers are low because of his popularity, and Trump’s are high because Republicans support him. It’s not until they’re actually running against one another and laying out their plans and debating each other and more indictments come down and more details of the evidence that people will start focusing on “Which of these two people do I want to be president?” In this poll, it just asks preference right now – there’s nothing about abortion, guns, the environment, more factoring in. And when it comes time to vote, those will all be at issue. And further, as we all know, we don’t elect by national vote. So, the more important question is how does this break down in terms of Electoral College votes? For all we know, Biden could be “leading” by just five points in swing states – but in ALL swing states – while Trump could be leading massively in Red states, making his numbers seem better than they are. (And leading by five points right now in every swing state – if that’s the case – is significant. In fact, more than merely significant: it’s what is necessary for victory,) There’s about 6 points undecided in the NBC poll. Once issues come into play – abortion, guns, the environment, banning books, inflation should be down even more, and the Infrastructure Bill’s projects should be in greater operation -- let’s be conservative and say that those undecideds breaks for Biden 4-2. That makes the margin for Biden 6 points. And support for Trump among Republicans should likely drop off a point or two when there are more indictments, and it comes to actually voting for him to be president again. The four closest swing states are Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona and Georgia. Of those, Michigan has swung pretty Democratic since 2020. And I think Kari Lake going full lunatic has screwed Arizona Republicans for 2024, and it should be more solidly Democratic. Wisconsin is a question mark, but when issues come to play, especially abortion and guns, I don’t think it will back Trump. And though Georgia was very close in 2020, it should be more solidly Democratic given all the things going on in that state – two Democratic U.S. senators, a likely Trump indictment for election fraud and a record of rebuking Trump by electing state officials he opposed. To be clear, these are all “should,” but they’re “should” based on supportive reasons. That said, there’s a reason that the NBC poll numbers are fairly close – as national numbers. Much as I think Democrats are in much better shape than Republicans, I actually love to have Democrats wary, which means they won’t take anything for granted and will keep working very hard to get the message out and get the vote out. I don’t like people being “scared” (because I don’t think you ever win running scared), but – outside of swamping the other side with a 20 point margin… -- I like people being wary. Still, yes, it’s surprising to have only a 4-point national margin. But I just think a lot of it is a momentary snapshot of personal party-line approval (or lack thereof) and has little to do with actually voting on issues in the election and who you want sitting in the Oval Office. And yes, it’s just numbingly sick that so many Republicans support Trump. But I think that will change as issues are on the table and as more indictments come and…as he begins campaigning as a lunatic. You know my long-held belief that a big turning point will be the first debate when he’s asked, “Who won the 2020 election?” – and he then goes on a long rant that he won and why. But yeah, it’s pathetic that so many Republicans still support a man under two current indictments (one of them for espionage), who has at least two likely-indictments coming soon, was found liable for sexual assault, was impeached twice and has a long track record of losing elections for the party. And is a white supremacist, pathological lying, anti-Semitic fascist. For starters.
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AuthorRobert J. Elisberg is a political commentator, screenwriter, novelist, tech writer and also some other things that I just tend to keep forgetting. Feedspot Badge of Honor
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