The other day, a friend asked me if I had any predictions about the Mid-Terms. And I had to tell him that I just don’t have any strong guesses. I certainly don't have a sense of optimism like I often try to bring as an overall perspective for most elections, though lest it seem otherwise I'm equally not pessimistic either. I just don't know yet, even with two weeks to go. Perhaps more will become clear by Election Day. But even that seems unlikely. Hence -- I don't know.
I do feel comfortable that it won’t be the blowout of Democrats that was once predicted by many. And I think the Democrats should retain control of the Senate – but I do not remotely feel comfortable about that as a serious prediction. After all, I don’t know what will happen in Pennsylvania, and if Tim Ryan can hold on in Ohio. I think they both should, and think Raphael Warnock should win (and is finally creating very slight distance) – but wouldn’t bet on any of them. In fact, I wouldn’t even place a bet on John Fetterman in Pennsylvania – his lead has not only tightened, but consistently so. I don’t have a clue what will happen in New Mexico – Democrat incumbent Catherine Masto-Cortez has been solidly behind much of the race, but now it appears only 1-2 points. Incumbent Maggie Hassan in New Hampshire looks like she’ll hold on to her Democratic seat – but “looks like” is still up in the air. I’m sorry that it looks like Marco Rubio will likely hold on to his GOP seat. So, that’s why “should” is a very flexible term. And while I actually think Democrats could win the House (for reasons I’ll get to in a moment), I suspect they won’t. National polling on that is meaningless. Initially Republicans were far ahead there, then Democrats took a surprising lead, but not Republicans have pulled ahead again, but only by two points. But since there are 435 independent districts, it just doesn’t matter what national House polls say. It’s certainly better to be ahead than not – but a Republican can win a red House district by 40 points and a Democrat can win a purple district by two points, and both winners end up in the House. Though not related to control of Congress, there are several governor races of note that were all excepted to go Republican, and that appears to be the case. I’m sorry it doesn’t look good for Beto O’Rourke in Texas, even if that’s tightened a bit. And sorry that Ron DeSantis seems safe. And that Brian Kemp appears poised to win over Stacey Abrams. But I’m especially sickened that the lunatic, deep fascist Kari Lake will win in Arizona (and has the possibility of being positioned as “a new face for the GOP”). That one is still close, so it’s one I’m most hopeful for a turnaround. On the hand, it looks like Democratic governor Gretchen Whitmir in Michigan should hold off the challenge. There are two factors we don’t know which impacts all of this. One is if the polling numbers for MAGA voters will again be undercounted, and the other is if the fury at overturning Roe is being undervalued. My pure guess is that MAGA numbers aren’t being undercounted – not only is Trump not on the ballot, but also I think that MAGA voters have become emboldened to be vocal by Trump and so are less likely to lie to pollsters about their support than in years previous. As for the abortion vote, because we’ve seen actual results in special elections of the Roe outrage being undervalued, that the outrage will provide a greater turnout across the country than poll numbers show. I know polls show that abortion has dropped as a top reason for voting – but people vote for more than one reason, and those for whom it is a top reason are, I believe, virulent in their anger to vote. And hopefully that will push some close elections into the Democratic column. After all, a shift of just 2-3 points in many races can alter the results. But…I don’t know. You will note that “I don’t know” is a recurring theme here. My biggest reaction, though, is how utterly galling the Republican Party has become in throwing away any sense of being honest and supporting basic decency. The pure lies and delusions transcend soulless and disreputable (like Kari Lake saying that she truly believes that if the Founding Fathers, JFK, and Martin Luther King were alive today, they would all support America First polices. Happily, MLK’s daughter wrote back to disabuse her. I replied back that, in fact, JFK and MLK were alive when the America First movement began, and they not only did NOT join, but they spent their lives fighting against those positions. And that it could be argued that they were both killed because they supported democracy and freedom. What bothered me is that her opponent on the debate stage, Katie Hobbs, was not reported as responding how she should have. Not just disagreeing, which I assume she did, but saying bluntly, “If you truly believe that, then you are ignorant of history and reality, and are actually delusional. And here’s why…”) And that Republicans officials are flocking to Herschel Walker, one of the most wildly-unqualified people ever to run for the U.S. Senate, purely because they want to control the Senate, never mind the cost, speaks loudly to who they are. (And though he’s not a candidate, the silence of Republican officials about Kanye West’s violent anti-Semitic comments speaks loudly to who the party is.) The short version to all this, but especially Republican silence (and occasional defense) of Kanye West, is that any Republicans who’ve been whining about their party today being called fascist now have one more reason to add to the list. I also find that Republican Kevin McCarthy’s talk about defunding Ukraine to be profoundly disturbing, and even that description is the oh-so polite term. Given that he is in the shaky lead to become Speaker should Republicans take control of the House, his words are basically a dog whistle to Putin to hold on, you’ll have your opportunity soon to go ahead and roll over a democratic country. Separate all this, though related to Congress, I was angry at the New York Times for publishing two articles on Marjorie Taylor Greene last Monday. Yes, two of them. One was a massive profile for the NYT Magazine, and the other was about her “comeback” in the GOP – where the only critical comment in it I saw was that a few Republican officials were concerned that her “style” – her style! -- might hurt them in the Mid-Terms. Needless-to-say, it’s horrific that she has gained a voice in the Republican Party. Chalk up another reason in that “Why are We Republicans Called ‘Fascist’ List?” In the final days of the election, where early voting has already started in many states, I remain hopeful that Democrats will aggressively use Republican insistence that if they regain control they’ll cut Social Security and Medicare. And ban all abortion. But Democrats have to use it and loudly and vociferously. We’ll see. I don’t know. (tm) The closest I have to something that could be called "optimism" is that if Republicans take control of either house of Congress (let alone both), Joe Biden is still president and will veto anything draconian the GOP will pass. And further, if Republicans take control of Congress I feel confident (based on seeing their growing hubris without merit) that they will be their own worst enemy by trying to be as reprehensible as possible by passing bill that please their racist, hate-filled base. And so they will pass bills to ban abortion in all states, and ban the use of contraceptives and ban mixed marriage and cut Social Security and cut Medicare. (All of which President Biden will veto.) And they'll vote to impeach President Biden. Maybe several times to beat Trump's record. And hold hearings to demonize Dr. Anthony Fauci and science. And vote to shut down the government. And maybe even vote against raising the debt ceiling, which will undermine the economy. And they will give people like Marjorie Taylor Greene and Matt Gaetz and Lauren Boebert more authority in the party. And...they will not propose any actual policies to actually help people. And after all that -- I do believe the solid majority of the public will hold that against them and even increase President Biden's approval, because that's what has happened every time Republicans have shut down the government and when they impeached Bill Clinton for no reason the public thought justified. Now, add in all these other monstrous attempts to impede freedom and democracy. While offering nothing. Zero. (Hey, we're still waiting for Trump's Big Beautiful Health Care, not to mention all his Transportation Weeks.) And all that will be a massive hurdle they'll have to get past in 2024, having revealed themselves as the actual, literal fascists they are. So, I call that Long-Term Optism. As for this election -- well, we'll find out...
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AuthorRobert J. Elisberg is a political commentator, screenwriter, novelist, tech writer and also some other things that I just tend to keep forgetting. Feedspot Badge of Honor
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