Hit and a Myth

The other day, I saw a headline that said something like, “International box-office turns around story of Indiana Jones flopping.”

Gee – who could possibly have seen that coming…?
 
(After what was called a very “soft” U.S. opening, it’s now made around the world in little over a week a quarter of a billion dollars.)

It is amazing that after all these many years, the core of movie analysis still doesn’t grasp how massive the international market is, especially for big action-adventure epics.

I wrote an article about this huge misperception for the Huffington Post almost 16 years to the day – in August, 2007 – about the huge size of the international market.  From my own simplistic research, basically picking a bunch of action-adventure epics at random, it was blatantly clear that they tended to gross at least double what the films made in the United States, and often three times.  However I realized it wasn’t only these kinds of movies, but so many (if not most) movies made more money internationally, even if not at that lofty rate (though even some did.  The sequel to “Bridget Jones’ Diary” was considered an embarrassing flop, only grossing $40 million domestically, just half of what the original film did.  The problem with that crack analysis is that the worldwide box-office ended up $265 million!)
 
By the way, it took Hollywood 12 years to glom on to this fact when they finally decided it might be a good idea to make a third “Bridget Jones” movie, in 2016.  But alas, 12 years is a very long time between sequels, and the “expert analysts” had their laugh when that film was seen as an even more massive disaster, and so after too long a passage of time it grossed only a paltry $24 million in the U.S. 

Except…oh, by the way, they were incredibly wrong again -- worldwide it made $212 million!!! 

And here's another example worth noting because it's a trifecta, of sorts.  The spy comedy "Johnny English" with Rowan Atkinson only made $28 million in the U.S. But worldwide, it grossed $160 million.  When they released a sequel, it made a paltry $8 million the U.S. -- but grossed $160 million (again!) around the world.  And when they made a third film in the series, it only grossed a laughable $4 million in the United States, just a total, pathetic, joke of a flop to analysts...but made $158 million internationally.

​I began referring to this sort of “analysis” as “myth-perceptions.  It was largely based on the concept of “I heard that…” when people in Hollywood pass along rumors that they heard from others – which counts as “research” in the movie world -- until they become accepted fact. 
 
In fact, I wrote several articles about it all, using just some incredibly rudimentary searching on the Internet, facts that anyone could brain-dead easily find.  All because these myth-perceptions cover a lot of ground.  Not just the myth-perception that ignored the reality that movies have a significant life outside the U.S., but also that they have a life outside the first weekend.  And how supposedly sequels never make any money (which was once a big article in the Los Angeles Times) – and later, how sequels always make money -- which had by then become gospel. And how action movies that star women don’t make any money.  (I wrote an article about that back in 2011 – long before the spate of monumentally successful women’s action movies not only proved the myth-perceptions wrong, but opened up a whole new genre for movies – which many in the film industry still don’t fully grasp.  I re-posted that article here.)
​
I have a good friend (all the way back from the same cabin at summer Camp Nebagamon) who wrote about entertainment for the Los Angeles Times, Patrick Goldstein.  When we’d discuss movie box office, I'd keep relentlessly pounding away at this reality of the international market, and being the good journalist that he is, he eventually started checking into what I was yammering about – and eventually became the first major writer I was aware of who began actually referencing the world market.  No one else on staff did.
 
I remember going to a screening back in 2007.  Afterwards, I ran into Patrick.  He, in turn, ran into a Major Agent and began talking.  Eventually, people split off, and I found myself with the Major Agent, and the conversation came around to the movie The Golden Compass, with Nicole Kidman and Daniel Craig, which had recently opened and was seen as a gargantuan flop.  It was a very expensive film that had a poor U.S. opening and would only end up making $70 million at the U.S. box office.  But I commented that it was the kind of movie that would do very well overseas.  This Major Agent looked at me with the scathing look he reserves for utter nobodies (which I suspect was most people) and pretty much dismissed me as an idiot.  I offered to make a bet, but Major Agents don’t bet with idiots.  Still, I did think about calling him later when the numbers were all in, and The Golden Compass had grossed $372 million.
 
Anyway, after this latest myth-perception about Indiana Jones supposedly flopping until it turned out that it didn’t, I thought it would be appropriate to return to 13 years ago and see what so many ace experts still haven’t figured out. 

NOTE: Some of the final box-office figures have gotten bigger since I wrote the article, and I've adjusted them, with updated links.

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                     Hollywood:  Where Ignorance Actually is Bliss
                                              August 7, 2007
 
 
It was the quintessential Hollywood disaster film.  But not the way you think.  This Christmas disaster wasn’t on-screen but at the box office.
 
Gleeful pundits didn’t even try to keep the holiday twinkle from of their eyes.  The L.A. Times had two separate articles already burying "The Polar Express” after only its opening weekend.  Dead on arrival.  “The Polar Express” was a colossal, unthinking debacle.  
 
One little problem.  The movie’s worldwide box office ended up at $314 million. 
 
The point here isn’t whether the terribly-expensive “The Polar Express” was a hit.  That’s for video rentals and accountants to determine.  Nor is it to debate whether the movie was any good.  Rather, the point is that Hollywood and its lapdog press love leaping to conclusions, and often wrong ones.
 
Does it matter?  Why even care? 
 
Realize that when Hollywood gets scared off by the false perception of some failure, it means that deserving, similar films won’t get made – even though audiences (you) actually loved them.  Filmmakers who made those movies may have a difficult time making others.  Studio executives involved with approving “The Polar Express” got fired early on – long before the reality of the $301 million box-office figures were in.  (Not to mention DVD rentals.)  If you don’t think getting fired puts a chill on Hollywood decision-making, just know that there are studio executives now who probably won’t approve a movie if it even has the word “polar” anywhere in the script.  So, not only do filmmakers suffer, but audiences (you) suffer, as well.
 
Of course, sometimes the perception does fit the reality.  Tom Cruise was an object of ridicule when “Mission Impossible III” was released, so it was simply fun to keep piling it on when his movie died.  Ask anyone.  Just don’t ask them how much it made.  Worldwide, that would be $398 million. (Surprised??)   Hmm, okay, so then this isn’t one of those times when perception matched reality. 
 
Film industry misperception and its perpetuation by the Hollywood press have long gone hand-in-hand. 
 
Part of this is due to a provincial view in Hollywood so limited that it doesn’t recognize existence of an area known as “the rest of the world.”  Part is the Hollywood love of Schadenfreude, German for “taking joy in the failure of others.”  Part, too, is because Hollywood is made up of freelancers, even at the executive level, always looking over their shoulders, terrified.  But most is because of a crushing lack of interest in a bothersome concept known as “Facts.”
 
Consider two movies that the myth of Hollywood perceived into disastrous flops.  One is even perceived as a flop of epic proportions.
 
That would be the second “Charlie’s Angels.”  After the massive success of the original film, “Charlie’s Angels: Full Throttle” flopped so horrifically that it literally destroyed the franchise and any thought of future sequels.  Right?  I mean, right??  But – well, surprise.  The sequel actually grossed a quarter billion dollars around the world!   That is only $5 million less than its megahit original.
 
The other disastrous flop was the sequel to the wildly-successful “Bridget Jones’ Diary.”  That sequel made a paltry $40 million in the U.S., barely half what the original took in.  It was dismissed as a disaster of numbing embarrassment.  The problem is that Hollywood is so egocentric that it forgets something called “other countries” exist outside of the American landmass.   In truth, the worldwide box office for that pathetic flop, “Bridget Jones’ Diary:  The Edge of Reason,” was a monumental $265 million!
 
Perceptions are lovely.  And Hollywood perceptions are an art form all their own.  Hollywood is an industry that is about myth-making, after all.  So, who cares if perceptions aren’t true?
 
Let's go further.  After all, actual facts really, truly are preferable to fake Hollywood Theories that the Wags draw out of thin air, or crevices of their lower extremities.

People love to sound esoteric by saying that "Perception is Reality."  Then they puff on their mythic pipe.  I like to add, "Except that reality is actually reality."
 
Here are some other realities – false perceptions aside.
 
“Van Helsing,” “Kingdom of Heaven” and “Kingdom Arthur” were three recent extravaganzas that the myth of Hollywood perceived into disastrous flops, and this helped put a hold on other such historic epics being made.  However, worldwide, "Van Helsing" actually grossed $300 million – and “Kingdom of Heaven” made $218 million.
 
As for “King Arthur”, we know that it wasn’t just a flop, but a laughable one.  After all, it only made $52 million in the U.S.  Except – its worldwide total was $204 million.  Yes, it was laughable, all the way to the bank.
 
Did any of these make profits?  Studio bookkeepers alone know (and, of course, don’t tell) – but regardless, the point is that those impressive totals are clearly far from the empty-wallet “disasters” people perceive.  Yet even more important to remember, all of these figures don’t even include massive video/DVD rentals and sales, pay-per-view and cable deals.  How massive?  According to an industry spokesman in USA Today, the home market is three times that of theatrical release and "drives most of the profit for studios and films.”
 
Let’s repeat that clearly:  as huge as all these worldwide theatrical grosses are – the home market is three times bigger, on top of that.  And studios don’t have to split what they make there with movie theaters.
 
Okay, pull up a chair.  Here’s a noteworthy illustration of how these misperceptions affect the movies that the audience (you) sees.  And therefore, why it matters:
 
The aforementioned “Charlie’s Angels 2” was the cornerstone of perhaps the finest example of Hollywood’s myopic perception problems ever, the famed Deadly Summer of Sequels, the summer of 2003.  “Tomb Raider 2.” “Legally Blonde 2.”  “Charlie’s Angels 2.”  It still gives Hollywood shivers.  “Expert” pundits declared the sequel dead-dead-dead.  The L.A. Times had articles about how audiences don’t want to see sequels anymore.  Studio Executive Panic burned rubber peeling away from anything that even had a number in it, or smelled sequelish.  No More Sequels!!
 
As you may have surmised by now, there’s one tiny difficulty with this misperception.  (Or more accurately, myth-perception.)  The problem is that the same summer the following sequels were also released: 
 
“The Matrix Revolutions” ($424 million).  “X-Men 2” ($380 million).  “Spy Kids 3-D” ($192 million.)  And of course “Charlie’s Angels 2” ($253 million).  In fact (ah, that pesky word, “fact”), even “Legally Blonde 2” made $125 million around the world, a mere $17 million less than the first – which was considered a Big Hit.
 
In truth (ah, “truth”), of those six sequels that summer, only “Tomb Raider 2” did poorly.  Just possibly, just maybe…its single failure may not have been because people simply didn’t like any sequels.  Maybe – maybe they just didn’t like “Tomb Raider 2.”
 
Hollywood analysts like easy answers because…well, they’re easy.  It doesn’t require research.  Or even thinking.  It only requires calling up other Pundits and reading other Wags and repeating what they said, making it the Conventional Wisdom.  Yet it’s not remotely wise.
 
And so the misperceptions linger on.  Studio execs joyfully dance on the graves of competitors, whether anyone is actually dead or not.  And then Hollywood pundits take these myths and pass them on as facts. 
 
It should also be noted that it’s in the studios’ best interest for its industry to think it’s failing.  Whenever contract negotiations roll around, the studios always – ALWAYS – claim they are losing money.  How many of you think “Hollywood” is losing money?  Hands?  Anyone?  You studio executives in the back don’t count.
 
Oh, by the way, remember that flop remake of “King King” that the Hollywood myth machine told everyone to ridicule?  Sit down, are you ready?.  It actually grossed $556 million. 
 
Finally, it’s worth noting the reverse, as well.  After having buried sequels just four years earlier and delivered their mournful eulogy, the L.A. Times is now falling over itself in article after article raving about the unearthly, ungodly, record-breaking success of sequels from “Shrek” to “Spiderman” to “Pirates of the Caribbean,” “Harry Potter” and now “The Bourne Ultimatum,” as well as describing how the number of summer sequels have dramatically risen specifically because they’re “safe.”  Their explanation now, after having killed sequels off in 2003?  “Hollywood makes sequels for one good reason: They make money.” 
 
And the reality is – yes, finally…finally…this is true. 
 
Except for those that don’t make money. 
 
Ask the producers of “Baby Geniuses 2” ($9.4 million.)  “Basic Instinct 2” ($27 million, compared to $353 million for the original.)  “Miss Congeniality 2”  ($81 million, down from $212 million.)  And “Blair Witch 2”  ($48 million, after $249 million.)  “Agent Cody Banks 2.”  “City Slickers II.”  “Species II.”  “Weekend at Bernie’s II.”  “Beyond the Poseidon Adventure.”  “Caddyshack II.”  “The Sting II,” “Tomb Raider 2.”  And on and on and on…
 
Hollywood.  The land of hits and myths.  It’s dangerous out there: think first.