I just read in Forbes of a poll in Georgia as of two weeks ago. It's the most recent that I could find. The poll said --
“Warnock leads Walker 51% to 47%, results that are within the poll’s 4.4 point margin of error but slightly more favorable toward Warnock compared to the midterm election results, when Warnock netted 49.4% of votes compared to Walker’s 48.5%.” A few things: While I’m slightly surprised it’s this close, I don’t think it’s as close as it appears, and what Forbes writes is a very generous interpretation of the poll. Yes, four points is within the 4.4 margin of error. But only by the edges of one’s fingertips. Also, the margin is four times as big as the actual election night margin (not “slightly more favorable”) – an election that Warnock beat Walker by 36,000. Warnock’s poll numbers are increasing. Not the direction a candidate wants who is starting out behind by 36,000 votes. Walker is starting from the perspective of 36,000 votes behind. He can’t afford to be one percent behind in polls, let alone four percent behind. He has to pick up votes, and a lot of them. This poll is just asking who you prefer, not who you will go out to vote for. I am sure a lot of Republicans held their nose voting for Walker because it meant taking over the Senate. Without that being on the table anymore, it seems likely many of those GOP voters won’t hold their noses again and go out to vote again, so Walker has to pick up more voters and not be four points behind. Warnock won 49.4% in the election. So, he only has to pick up .6% to win. Being up in the polls by four percent is much better than “slightly more favorable.” The one thing that Walker has to hope for is that almost all the 2.1% of voters who voted for Libertarian Chase Oliver will vote for him. But what seems more likely is that they won’t vote. And again, the poll has Warnock ahead by four points. And that suggests many of those Libertarian votes went to Warnock. Being up by four points and within a hair’s breath of the 4.4% margin of error means that if Warnock only picks up .5%, he will be ahead by 4.5% and outside the margin of error by THAT MUCH – by contrast, for Walker to be ahead by the same amount as Warnock is now, the numbers would have to flip by eight points! (Well outside the margin of error.) And this poll is from two weeks ago, before the follow-up story of the second woman speaking out publicly about Walker paying for her abortion and before the story that Walker is getting a tax break for having his primary residence in Texas. (By the way, left out of most stories is that the Texas law Walker is getting is tax break under says that he must return to Texas within two years – quite a conundrum for someone asking Georgia to make him their senator for six years…) Yes, this is just one poll. And I don’t know who did it and how accurate they are. But it’s all we have to go on.
0 Comments
Leave a Reply. |
AuthorRobert J. Elisberg is a political commentator, screenwriter, novelist, tech writer and also some other things that I just tend to keep forgetting. Feedspot Badge of Honor
Archives
May 2024
Categories
All
|
© Copyright Robert J. Elisberg 2024
|