Biden His Time

When you not only lose your firewall state which you won four years ago, but lose it by a landslide, that’s not generally considered helpful to your campaign.
 
Especially when you also lose Missouri – in an even bigger landslide.
 
And get so overwhelmed in Mississippi that the only question is if you are going to pass the 15% threshold to get any statewide delegates.
 
At the time I write this, it looks like the races in North Dakota, Idaho and Washington are going to end reasonably close -- Biden is ahead in Idaho, with Sanders ahead in Washington and razor-thin ahead in Washington -- but all that's almost a moot point since the difference in delegates won (which is pretty much the only important point when the nomination is decided purely by who gets the most delegates) is going to be a wash between the two candidates.

And none of this even takes into consideration Florida next week with its 248 delegates that Biden is apparently ahead right now by landslide proportions…
 
A friend asked me if I thought Bernie Sanders would get out out of the race this week.  The question is certainly premature, though understand given a) the results the past two weeks, b) that Sanders flew back home last night, not to the next state to campaign in, and c) Sanders didn't even give a speech and ceded the entire evening to Biden.  That said, on the one hand, I look at Sanders like Michael Jordan who was so profoundly competitive on basketball court that he famously always had to have an “enemy” to battle against, and if there wasn’t an enemy, he’d create one, take any comment from an opponent and figure out a way of making it a personal slight.  And I think Bernie Sanders is somewhat the same way.  Everyone is always against him – the Republicans, the billionaires, the Democratic establishment.  And a person like that doesn’t give up and quit.  They battle all the way to the convention.
 
On the other hand, I think he knows that Trump is the real enemy here and must be defeated.  And if there’s just no path to win, and he risks humiliating his movement, then at that point he might drop out in part for the good of the party to beat Trump, but also to keep his revolution from being discredited for the future.
 
I would not remotely be surprised by the former, but I expect the latter.  The question is when does he cross the line of no-return to avoid humiliation. My guess is that he’ll keep running through the primaries next week, if only to get one more chance to debate. 
 
Being on a debate stage with Joe Biden one-on-one will likely be what he sees as his only opportunity to turn the race around.  And if you're debating on Sunday, you'll of course stay in the race through Tuesday.  And we'll see what happens then.

Perhaps the best comment of the night related to this and was made by former senator Clair McCaskill.  She said that it's totally up to Bernie Sanders what he wants to do and if he wants to stay in the race.  "But if he does, I hope he drops the negative ads."

And the stupidest comment of the night also was in regards to this upcoming debate.  It came from Richard Kim of the Huffington Post.  Almost bouncing in his seat, he said there are two issues he wants to hear Bernie Sanders address.  I leaned forward to listen closely, wondering what these two issues were that the thought could help turn the race around for Sanders.  The first was -- the coronavirus. I thought, well, that's bizarre.  What, does he think Joe Biden is going to come out for the disease, and Bernie Sanders is going to run circles around him by explaining how bad it is??  If his point is to make it a matter of healthcare plans, Biden handled the question well in his long interview on Monday with Lawrence O'Donnell -- he said it isn't a matter of plans, since plans don't take away people's concerns, it's to let the doctors and scientists take the lead in how to best address the crisis.

And Kim's second issue he wanted to hear Sanders raise to turnaround the race was -- fracking.  Yes, fracking.  That's supposedly what will help Democrats see that they've been wrong all along, and Sanders should lead the party.  I'm going to guess that at least half of all Democrats have no idea how to exactly describe fracking.

In the end, yes, it's Bernie Sanders' decision whether or not to stay in the race, and it's understandable if he does. But he should nonetheless be asked what he sees his path to getting the nomination is.  And it appears that the only real, viable path is if Joe Biden has a meltdown on the debate stage.  And while that's always a possibility, and Biden isn't a great debater, the reality is that he's done fine in the debates thus far, having one poor debate, and the rest solid while even considered to have won a couple.  And if Sanders' only path to the nomination is Biden floundering in the debate, then that means his path is not a whole lot different from Tulsi Gabbard's.  Or even Elizabeth Warren, Mike Bloomberg or Pete Buttigieg, who only suspended their campaigns and could get back in the race.  The point is, yes, he has a path.  It just appears to be a narrow one.

For now, though, Joe Biden has had a couple of very good weeks in a row and started to form a little distance with Bernie Sanders.  And in addressing the situation, I liked the speech Biden gave.  To be clear, it wasn't a great speech, but it was the right speech.  Very low-key, but pointed.  And that’s what’s needed for bringing in Independents and moderate Republicans.  In fact, that's why I think Trump is hurting himself each time he uses his current nickname for Biden, “Sleepy Joe.”  Polls show there is a Fatigue Factor with a large group of people over Trump (especially women, those polls show), and “Sleepy Joe” is probably what a lot of them actually want.
 
But for all the attention given to Biden's second big week in a row, to me the biggest story of the night may not have even been the results, but rather the turnout.  It was exceedingly high, all over – which shows how deeply motivated Democrats are.  And that's an issue that carries over to the general election.  That said, it also importantly raises the question of how the coronavirus might depress voting in November, something Democrats have to prepare for.  After all, lower turnout helps Republicans more.  However, I'm sure Democrat are very focused on turnout, and think it will be huge for Democrats who have been waiting for three years to vote against Trump.  I also think Democrats will make a push to use vote-by-mail more, as well.  In fact, for all I know, voting by mail might even bring about more Democratic votes since it’s easier to do.

One final issue is something that I haven’t heard mentioned in any political analysis – mostly because it’s not only premature, but much too premature – but we may be getting to the point where that's no longer the case.  And it's that as much attention has been given to the many major endorsements Biden has gotten, there’s one endorsement he’s yet to get -- but if he gets the nomination, will.  And just imagine how aggressive I am sure Barack Obama will be campaigning for Biden, who he loves.  Against Trump who’s trying to undo everything Obama did and is undermining the country.  Imagine the speech he gives at the Democratic National Convention.  And imagine him on the campaign trail.  He'll do it for whoever the nominee is -- but his love of Biden and deep knowledge of him will glow through.

In the end, Nicolle Wallace probably had the best line of the night as Biden's lead in the delegate count towards being the Democratic Party's nominee grew.  She said – “Donald Trump got himself impeached just so this wouldn’t happen.”