In the last poll in March, Colbert Busch was also up, but only by two points. There have been a few changes since then. One is that a complaint was filed against Mr. Sanford for trespassing at the home of his ex-wife, when he says he went there to watch the Super Bowl with his son who was alone. Another change is that a Green Party candidate has entered the race and picked up three points. A third change is that people have likely gotten to known Ms. Colbert Busch better. Also causing problem for the former Republican governor is that he only has a 38-percent favorable rating in the district.
If the poll is accurate, it points to a big problem for Mark Sanford since the election is in only 15 days, on May 7, so there isn't much time to make up an almost double-digit deficit. The last time South Carolina voters elected a Democrat to Congress in the First District was 1981.