Tennis star Novak Djokovic, perhaps the #1 player in the world, has been hosting a tournament in Serbia and Croatia.  At least four players have tested positive for COVID-19, including Djokovic, as well as his wife. The tournament has been cancelled, and Djokovic has issued an apology.

On the surface, this is a very nice apology.  But living on just the surface never tells the full story.

​For one thing, Djokovic -- if not a "science denier" per se -- has been living by somewhat alternative "skepticism" standards after beginning a relationship with a self-styled wellness guru Chevrin Jafarieh, who previously was a real estate businessman...which is, of course, where all ace science practice comes from.  Among other things, Jafarieh preaches that you can change the molecular structure of water by positive thought.  And that bending your body in certain ways can release toxins.  And that using a trampoline can detoxify the body. 

Djokovic has embraced these attitudes, and has been an outspoken anti-vaxxer, including about not taking a vaccine for the coronavirus.  He also has stated that he holds a strong friendship bond with a fig tree in Brazil.  And he supports his wife's belief that the coronavirus is part of a conspiracy involving 5G broadband technology.

So, y'know, when he writes that they organized the tournament "believing that the conditions for hosting the Tour had been met" -- well, yeah, not so much.

Among other things, for example, players hugged each other, there was high five-ing with fans, there was no social distancing in the stands, and parties were held at night

Yes, I know.  It's pretty ghoulish, most especially as far as meeting safe conditions goes.

And Djokovic also took time to relaxing playing some basketball with other tennis pals during a break in the tournament, here  on the right along with Grigor Dimitrov.

Oh, by the way, it may not shock you to learn that Grigor Dimitrov is one of the four tennis players who, with Djokovic, tested positive for COVID-19.

So, yeah, "believing conditions for hosting the Tour had been met" requires a very flexible defining of the word "believing."  And "met."

To be completely honest, I'm very sorry that anyone gets COVID-19, and I hope everyone at the event has a healthy recovery. Good luck to them all.

However, the issue isn't having a tournament, which is what Djokovic is apologizing for.  The issue is the willful disregard of science protocols for safety at the event. Hugs, parties, no masks, no social distancing, high-fives, basketball. It put OTHERS not at the event at risk -- of spreading infection and death.

So, on full consideration, while the apology some nice things in it and which seem heartfelt, it's largely apologizing for the wrong thing.  At best, as standards go for the Apology Institute of America from Nell Minow and myself, I initially decided I could give this a C- by stretching kindness as far as I could because of him being infected along with his wife, his philanthropic intent, and his sincerity of what he is saying -- though after more thought, it gets downgraded to a D+ because of what it doesn't say and when you remove the sympathy factor and good intentions for putting others at risk of their lives and then prorate for the photos and total disregard for science, which he tries to whitewash.  If perhaps he had noted "I was a total asshole and will work hard the rest of my life, which I hope is long, to make up for this and will be donating time and money to the World Health Organization," he might have gotten a bump..

Mainly, though, this isn't about apologies.  This is about reckless stupidity.

​No Djok.

If you missed last night's episode of Last Week Tonight with John Oliver, it was an interesting broadcast.  The Main Story was about the coronavirus in prisons and jails.  And though that's a top some people might feel should be lower on the list of concerns, the Oliver team does an excellent not only showing its importance on a human level, but also how it affects others.  And they do it with great skill and humor.

You may have seen Rep. Karen Bass on the news a lot lately.  She's the head of the House Black Caucus, and was tasked by Speaker Nancy Pelosi to head up the effort to bring a new police reform bill before the House.  Ms. Bass is my representative, and last night she did a telephone town hall.

At one point, she mentioned how the India Ambassador was talking with her the other day, and he wanted to brag.  She explained that India has a population of 1.3 billion (which is four times the United States), but the Ambassador noted they only have had 16,000 deaths from COVID-19 -- which she quickly corrected herself, and said, "I mean 12,000."

The United States has 120,688 deaths due to the coronavirus.  And Mike Pence is telling us this is a "cause for celebration."

I mention this all because of what happened in Montgomery, Alabama.  The city has been building towards a hospital crisis, as coronavirus cases have been heading up precipitously.  On Wednesday, the City Council took a vote on a proposal requiring the public use of face masks.  A group of doctors showed up to make an impassioned case for the issue -- but the vote failed to pass by a 4-4, split along racial lines.  When the measure didn't pass, Montgomery mayor Steven Reed, who understood the emergency and crisis, stepped in and issued an executive order.

That brings us to yesterday.

One of the City Council members who voted no, Glen Pruitt, called a press conference.  He also invited the doctors who had spoken before the City Council the day before.  And he explained why he was mortified by his voted and apologized.

As readers of these pages know, Nell Minow and I have formed the Apology Institute of America, of which we are, I believe, the only members.  I'll have to check the minutes.  We grade public apologies by public figures, most of which are pretty poor, though occasionally an impressively good one crops up -- though even those rarely make an A grade.  I can't speak for my partner here, but I'm not only giving Councilman Pruit an A, he gets a rare A+.

What's so interesting, for all those who feel they might have reason to make a public apology at some point and are taking notes, is not the rarity of a politician apologizing nor that he didn't have a lawyer write it, but that he  gets such a lofty mark for his apology despite not falling over himself apologizing (although it would certainly be okay if he did).  Indeed, what makes it a high-grade apology -- the standard for any high-grade apology -- is the understanding of what you did that was wrong, explaining it, and making clear that it wouldn't happen again and why.

This is how you apologize.
​

If only it was Rob and Laura and all we were watching was The Dick Van Dyke Show.  ​At least then we could laugh and turn it off when it was over.

There were a lot of news stories yesterday about health officials concerned by the rise in infections the past week, especially compared to the most of the rest of the world which has started to decrease.  Obviously, they are right to be concerned.  Unfortunately, it seems to me that this increase is from the "re-opening" of the economy and the results of all that.  However, the protest rallies across the nation which began a couple weeks ago didn't really grow to the massive, awe-inspiring crowds of tens of thousands each until the past week.  That's too early to see infections registering.  So, for all the justified concerns now, it would seem that the curve is only just starting to rise.

As I said the other day, those protest crowds en masse was truly inspiring for what they stood for and were marching for, and pushed to help change society for the better.  But looking at them, they were also ghoulish human Petri dishes cultivating infection.

At least, I understand the nobility of what they were going out in the streets for.  The selfish, mindless, infantile pea brains who couldn't wait to jump into a pool, pack themselves into bars, romp in the park, celebrate Memorial Day, threatened government officials at their homes, carried guns into statehouses, filed lawsuits, harassed health officials until they quit, cried for stores to be opened that few people were stupid enough to shop at, but enough tragically did to pass along disease, those are the ones who are helping Trump change American society for years to come -- and perhaps more, in some ways.

And Trump's fascism through it all grows more public, as his support drops off and, with you substance to support him, he flails in desperation.

And the Republican Party enables him, is complicit, has blood on its hands, and appears to be actively working to block any sane solutions.

There is an organization known as MeidasTouch that isn't as well-known as The Lincoln Project, but they are making their own political and social ads that are profound.  Founded three brothers accomplished in the field, their work is not only deeply-impressive, but almost unbelievably fast.  Here is the latest piece they put out yesterday evening, based on comments Trump made earlier in the day!
​

Just to update -- yesterday, I wrote an article about how the coronavirus is nothing "like the flu," and I said that though the number deaths right now was 112,000, I thought it would go to at least 150,000.  I clarified that I am not a scientist, so my word was hardly definitive.  But I didn't think I was wrong.

In the evening, a new report came out from the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington.  This is the group which has provided the White House with its model for predicting cases of COVID-19 -- that is until the White House stopped wanting to present such numbers.

The IHME said that its new model was 145,000 deaths by August 4.

Okay, yes, I was 5,000 deaths high.  But in fairness, their model is only until August 4, a mere two months from now.  I was talking about until the end of the year.  So...I think unfortunately I'm still on track.

And this was back when Trump said, "I'm hearing 74,000."  Hey, if I could be that much more accurate than the guy surrounded by all the national institutes of health, God only know what lunatic voices he was hearing.  But as I said, they were probably coming out of his rear.

Over the weekend, I was talking with a friend who suggested that because of all the people participating in mass protests across the country, he thought that there might be an uptick in COVID-19 infections in a couple of weeks.  I disagreed with him.  It wasn't a case of "might," I was absolutely sure there would be.  How in the world could there not??  We're seeing packed groups of thousand and thousands and thousands marching together, touching, hugging, shaking hands, many thankfully with facemasks, but far-far too many without.

When pictures of these masses of humanity are shown, reaction from reporters and social media tend to be one of almost awe.  And I understand.  It's remarkably admirable the passion they're showing for such a critically important issue.  Noble even.  And I hold them all high in my esteem for the grace of heart they are demonstrating.  What I also see in all those images is a giant human Petri dish, thousand and thousands of infected cells creating a potent culture for growing the coronavirus.

Of course there will be an uptick in infections.  How can there not?

The best description of it that I've heard from doctors who have expressed the medical view beyond just the understandable admiration is that what we'll see is an uptick in the first wave.  Before the second wave.  Most scientists have been concerned about the second wave and how such things are often more intense than the first wave.  That's based on controlling the first wave and it dwindling down.  But the first wave in the U.S. is not going to dwindle down, but start rising up again.  Mind you, I'm no doctor or scientist, so I could be wrong.  It's just that no expert I've heard though has even hinted otherwise.  So, I'm going on their word.

Once upon a time, long ago back in late February, Trump said that in a few days there will be just 2-3 cases and then soon the coronavirus will be gone like a "miracle."  It was, of course, an idiot thing to say, but that didn't stop him.  He also said that the coronavirus was like the flu.  And after all, the normal flu always killed 30,000 people each year, so there's nothing to worry about.  That was an idiot statement, too -- but unlike the first idiot statement of it all be gone in days like a "miracle" that even Trump cultists seemed to think profoundlly unlikely, this latter idiot statement got repeated extensively because 30,000 is a Really Big Number, and so when COVID-19 deaths would turn out to be less than that, or even a bit more, all the hoax worry would be shown for the libtard bias hatred of Trump they were sure it was.

Then on April 20, Trump's pronouncement of deaths changed ever so slightly, and he said, "Now we’re going toward 50, I’m hearing, or 60,000 people.”  And I was sure that even that was far too low. It was only April, after all.

So, a month passed and on May 20, Trump then said, "I'm hearing 74,000."  Me, without all the ace contact he had with actual world-expert doctors and scientists in charge advising him, I was hearing 150,000, at least.  And these are just the deaths being reported. Trump was probably hearing his numbers where he hears all such things, pulled from his rear end.

It was a big deal in the country when we passed 100,000 deaths a couple weeks ago.  Made all the front pages. The New York Times even listed one thousand names covering on its entire front page to memorialize the horror.  Passing that milestone number was covered extensively on TV.

That was a couple weeks ago.  As of today, there are already 113,221 American deaths.  That we know of.  Before the uptick of the first wave.  Which is before the second wave.  With the many tens of thousand of people marching arm-in-arm in the streets.  And it's only the beginning of June.

Yes, it's just "like the flu," the Trump cultists laughed, having heard it from their Dear Leader.  And the flu always killed 30,000 Americans each year.  A few times it even killed 60,000 Americans. But 30,000, that's every year.  So, screw you and your Dem libtard hoax of the coronavirus, this is just "like the flu."

Man, does 60,000 deaths sound quaint right now.  A dream we could wish for.

What I tried to respond when I could -- and it was like trying to catch all the raindrops in a storm with just your hands, so after a while there really isn't anything one could seriously do -- is that COVID-19 was absolutely nothing "like the flu."  When 30.000 Americans die every year...and this should be a pretty easy concept to figure out...society does not come to a halt.  The entire country doesn't wear face masks each flu season.  People aren't told to shelter-at-home for just a week, let alone months.  No one is told to social distance when coming in contact with others  No businesses shut down.  Nor do 40 million people apply for unemployment every winter when the flu comes on.  And entire major industries don't risk bankruptcy.  No, in the flu season -- Life...just...goes...on.  Like normal.  Nothing changes.  It's life as always.  People go to work.  Hug and kiss.  Shake hands with strangers.  Get a flu shot.  And yes, 30,000 Americans tragically die.  But flu season, it's just every day life.

With COVID-19...people shelter at home, businesses close, we social distance, wear face masks, wash our hands repeatedly throughout the day, wash our groceries to be safe, take every safety precaution society can -- and in just three months, with ALL that massive, intense precaution daily...100,000 Americans have already died.  And now just two weeks later, it's 113,055.  That we know of.  And it's continuing, it's probably much more.  With an uptick soon.  And then a second wave. This is not "like the flu."  Regardless of what Trump said and his minions believed.

Oh, yes, and one other small thing about COVID-19 -- unlike the flu...there is no vaccine.  And at the very best, if we're lucky, there likely won't be for a year before everyone is inoculated.  Around the world.  And further, many insane people are saying they won't take the vaccine because they have a conspiratorial fear that Bill Gates or George Soros or perhaps Alexadria Ocasio-Cortez has made the vaccine for some inexplicable, nefarious purpose.  So, the infection will spread among them. And that's if a vaccine is, in fact, found.  And that it has lasting effect.

I just hope that the number of dead Americans is contained as ghoulishly low as 150,000.  The problem with that is we're are going to be around 130,00 deaths by the end of June.  When the uptick of the first wave will kick in.  Before the second wave.

This is nothing "like the flu."  No matter what Trump said back then when it would be gone like a "miracle."

And the elected members of the Republican Party enable him, are complicit and have blood on their hands.  And continue to do nothing, continue to not support national testing, continue as aggressively as they can to happily open businesses as numbers rise in their states, continue to not require factories to provide infection reports.

Yes, I know this here has been a fairly bleak bit of observation.  And I'm not a doctor, after all, so it's just amateur medical analysis, although I wouldn't rely on that as positive news to hold on to.  But happily, there is at the very least one bit of good news from all this --

Because the situation is as tragic and dismal as it is, and because on top of it we have mass protests across the country over the issue of Black Lives Matter, I think the era of the Trump administration is nearing an end, and each day brings us more national outrage and closer to the election of Joe Biden, which will be the first step toward hope, decency, a trust and understanding of science, compassion, resolution, and sanity.

But that election cannot be taken for granted. Nor will it quite confident.  That's because we have seen the horrified, vitriolic indignation in the streets each day -- and not just mere mass outrage, but that which risks their lives in the middle of a pandemic.  All of this and more is pushing to ensure that absolutely nothing is taken for granted.

A few months back, I wrote about friends saying to me that they hoped people would "remember" how bad things were by the time the election comes.  And I wrote at length how it is not possible that people won't remember a pandemic, 70,000 dead, sheltering-at-home for months, being unemployed and many having no job to go back to.  And that was two months ago.  Now throw in 113,055 dead already -- and add in so many thousands of Americans protests in the streets across the country that Trump brought in the military to gas and shoot rubber bullets at and threatened enabling the Insurrection Act to march in the army, while covering in bunker.  As national protests continue.  And build around the world.

Hope people remember??!!  It is our nightmare every day, and people are literally marching for their lives.  It's not a case of will they remember -- it's will they ever even forget generations from today?  But for now, for November, the only issue is not remembering, but "getting out the vote," and every shoe you see on the streets right now will be leading that charge.

And Trump and the entire elected members of Republican Party, federal and state, who enable him are complicit in their joint cruelty, ignorance, complacency and fascism.

No, this is not just "like the Trump flu."

​And bleach won't make it go away.

Yesterday, there was an article in Politico that got a great deal of attention, titled "The general election scenario that Democrats are dreading."  The piece concerned comments made by Jason Furman, who was a major economist in the Obama administration, serving at one point as Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors.  During a Zoom conference of economists and former Cabinet secretaries, he said -- "We are about to see the best economic data we’ve seen in the history of this country."  As Furman said later in an interview, "Everyone looked puzzled and thought I had misspoken” 

The article here by Ryan Lizza and Daniel Lippman notes that "Instead of forecasting a prolonged Depression-level economic catastrophe, Furman laid out a detailed case for why the months preceding the November election could offer Trump the chance to brag — truthfully — about the most explosive monthly employment numbers and gross domestic product growth ever."

A friend sent me the article, understandable concerned, especially since the article asks Furman about the level of concern among top party officials, and he replied, “It’s high — high, high, high, high.”

As I told him, first and foremost, I think it's good for Democrats to take nothing for granted, and to be concerned by everything when it comes to the election.  Not only including this, but especially this.
 
I'm also not an economist, so zero of my opinions have any substantive meaning..
 
I know too that accomplished as Jason Furman is, he is only one economist, and the article points out that all the other economists on the Zoom discussion were stunned by what he said.
 
And it's notable too that the only people agreeing with him in the article are those in the Trump administration, including Happy Talk economic adviser Kevin Hassett (who on Sunday referred to the public as "Human capital stock," along with Larry "We have the coronavirus contained" Kudlow and trade adviser Peter Navarro, about whom Mother Jones wrote --

"Dubbed 'Trump’s looniest economic adviser' by the Wall Street–focused Dealbreaker, Navarro is an academic who famously made up a fake expert to quote in his books. A five-time failed political candidate in San Diego, Navarro is widely known there 'as a nut,' says one veteran California GOP political consultant. Navarro’s views on trade are considered so fringy that, for years, reporters covering him have been trying unsuccessfully to find a credible source who may agree with him."
 
Not being an economist myself, my reaction is that this scenario postulated by Mr. Furman is ridiculous and the article only slightest touches on the counter-argument and leaves out some massive points that go far beyond economy as deal with other aspects of the real world.
 
Most notable is that the article focuses only on money and leaves out -- 100,000 Americans are dead.  Right now.  That we know of.  And that it will probably go to at least 150,000 dead Americans.  And even if the economy comes back, they aren't.
 
It also quotes Mr. Furman saying emphatically, though it seems awfully glibly that the economic bounce back “can be very very fast, because people go back to their original job, they get called back from furlough, you put the lights back on in your business" -- while only later in the article does it eventually note that many businesses actually went bankrupt, and there won't be jobs to go back to.  And moreover that many businesses will be downsizing, so no jobs there either.  And it doesn't ever mention a critical point -- you can give someone a job, and turn the lights on, and open the doors...but that doesn't mean customers will come rushing back.  And according to numerous polls, between 60-70% of the public says that they won't until there is a vaccine distributed to everyone -- which at the very best won't be for a year.
 
Also, the article buries near the end that Jason Furman off-handedly says, "If there’s a second wave of the virus and a really serious set of lockdowns, I wouldn’t expect to see this. But I think the most likely case is the one I just laid out.”  But the thing is, he's an economist, not is a scientist -- so saying, "But I think the most likely case is the one I just laid out" is as totally meaningless as me not being an economist.  Less so perhaps because most every actual science expert says that there pretty much ALWAYS is a second wave, and that it can be more virulent than the first.  And we're already seeing numbers go up from the recent small-numbers of business openings.  It's hard for me to imagine based on all these experts and the numbers we've already seen that there won't be a second wave -- which even Furman says would not allow the recovery he's predicting.
 
So, the reporters wrote a very long article about the one economist who says it will be a great turnaround, but bury even deeper Austin Goolsbee -- who was Furman's predecessor as President Obama's Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors -- saying, "I view it as Trump left the door open and five rats came into the kitchen and you’re going to brag, ‘Look I got two of the rats out?’ There’s a high risk you look completely out of touch if you still have double-digit unemployment rates.”
 
And it leaves out one other huge thing.
 
Last night on MSNBC, they had a well-regarded journalist who has written extensively about pandemics.  She said that life won't begin returning to something like normal for at least THREE YEARS at a minimum.  And Jason Furman thinks everything will be great for Republicans because the economy will be booming in a few months.

Forget for a moment viewing Trump's re-election from purely an economic analytic model.  Let's take a step back and look at real world that model exists in.
 
There will likely be at least 150,000 Americans dead that we know of.  Each of those people are mourned by immediate family, relatives, friends and associates.  We already know of 1.7 million Americans who were infected, so far.  Business went bankrupt and aren't returning.  Companies are cutting back.  About 60-70% of people say they won't go back to stores and restaurants until there is a vaccine for everyone and it's safe. And life will not be anything even remotely close to normal.  Sports arenas aren't going to be packed with 60,000 fans by October. Even if teams begin playing, it will be in empty stadiums.  And the related concessionaire industries will suffer.  People won't be crowding into movie houses or stageplay theaters.  Who knows when they've even be ready to again start making movies and TV shows.  The crushed travel and hospitality industry that lost $800 billion is not going to pack airplanes, fill up hotels and load up cruise ships.  Seriously??  Even putting fear of the virus aside, most people pummeled by job loss will likely be saving their money rather than take leisure trips. Businesses will use teleconferencing platforms rather than send executives around the country -- let alone to conventions. Further, the public knows Trump still recommended taking bleach and disinfectant, still said COVID-19 would be gone like a "miracle" in February, still shut down the Pandemic Response Unit two years ago, still cut $8.5 billion from the CDC, still ignored the Obama Transition pandemic playbook, still fired the CDC expert on infectious disease IN CHINA last June, and his level of trust is in the mid-30s.  And all that's even if there isn't a second wave, which according to science experts, there's no reason to believe that there won't be.  And Jason Furman is saying Trump and Republicans will be in great shape because stores will be opening very fast, very fast.  Because apparently that's all it's about.  The human capital stock.

There is a quip about economists.  It's that an economist is someone who sees something happen in reality but doubts that it can happen in theory.

I don't know.  I'm not an economist.  Of course an expert like Jason Furman could be right.  And it's good for Democrats to be wary about everything.  Good that their concern over this is "high -- high, high, high, high."  Concern about everything when it comes to Trump should be high.  High, high. 

But Austan Goolsby is an expert, too.  And was Jason's Furman's predecessor.  And all the other experts on the conference call were shocked by his statement.

Furthermore, an article in yesterday's Raw Story addresses reaction to the article and explains -- 

"A report from Politico caused a stir on Tuesday morning, as it quoted Democratic economists and operatives who were nervous that President Donald Trump could benefit from a rapid economic recovery in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic.
 
"However, polling experts Nate Silver and Harry Enten both poured cold water on the notion that a V-shaped recovery would be sufficient enough to lift the president above former Vice President Joe Biden, who has consistently led him in polls throughout the year.

"Enten pointed out that Trump has for the entire year led Biden in polling on who is more trusted to handle the economy — but it hasn’t mattered, as voters in polls still said they preferred the former vice president to the incumbent overall."

And that's a critical point overlooked by Jason Furman's analysis -- perhaps the most-critical point:  that Joe Biden has been leading Trump ever since he got into the race, and that's with the economy rolling along okay and with the public saying they trust him more on the economy!  Now add in the 150,000 dead, bankrupt businesses and still not vaccine to return life to normal...which likely won't happen for at least three years.

Additionally, the article also references Nate Silver's observation that even if the current unemployment rate is cut by by six percentage points by the election, it would still Trump with a poor economy.

“It’s true that a partial recovery to 9% would be better for Trump than getting stuck at 15%,” Silver wrote. “But 9% is still quite high, and voters could also compare to 3.5% or wherever it had been before… The best strategy is therefore to use a broad basket of economic indicators over a broad range of time horizons. By that measure, voters’ assessments of the economy would likely still be fairly negative on balance by November even with a halfway recovery.”

(You can read the full article here.)

Honestly, of course I don't know how any of this will work out.  I could be totally wrong.  I'm not an economist.  And it's not only good but critically important that people are concerned about this and about everything with the election.

And by the way, I hope the economy comes roaring back in full by the election.  And that everyone gets their jobs back, all 42 million.  And that there's a vaccine available in months.  And that all the deaths stop as soon as humanly possible.  This is a ghoulish real world we are living in -- not just in the United States, but all over the entire globe.  I want the disaster over and resolved.  I want the real world back to to normal.

But even if there is no second wave, which is considered probable to near-certain -- until it's pointed out why all these other reasons of real life I've mentioned and what all the other economic experts and science experts are saying is wrong and without meaning, and recognizing that Biden was ahead of Trump before the pandemic, then I think it's best to pay attention to Jason Furman, be wary of his analysis, and understand that the real world situation for Trump is truly horrific.

Economic theory and even economic reality are only a part of the real world.  And the fullness of the real world plays a profound role in how human beings respond to pretty much everything.

And even if there is no second wave and many of the 42 million jobs lost come back, the real world where people live -- that "human capital stock" as Trump economic adviser quaintly put it -- will still be a deeply troubled place.  Caused by Trump repeatedly cutting all manner of pandemic response and ignoring all warnings, certain instead that it would be gone like a "miracle."  Helped by taking bleach and disinfectants. 

And all the while, Trump played golf on Memorial Day as deaths neared 100,000, while Rome burned.  Because even little things like that not only actually matter to "human capital stock" in the real world, but they remember them for what such little things signifies..

I could be wrong.  So could all the other economic and science experts.  I'm not an expert in any of those fields. So, I could be totally wrong.  And them, too.

Who knows? 

The thing is, the real world, where we all live -- it's a funny old place.

The front page of today's New York ​Times.
​

The sub-headline is difficult to read here.  It says -- “They were not simply names on a list. They were us.”

Within the paper, the Times wrote --

“Numbers alone cannot possibly measure the impact of the coronavirus on America, whether it is the number of patients treated, jobs interrupted or lives cut short. As the country nears a grim milestone of 100,000 deaths attributed to the virus, The New York Times scoured obituaries and death notices of the victims. The 1,000 people here reflect just 1 percent of the toll. None were mere numbers.”

Following our new policy, we are throwing darts at a collection of news stories during the day and whatever gets hit, we write about...

Today, the lucky winner is the study from Columbia University on how many deaths could have been saved if Trump had acted earlier, when there was known to be a problem, but instead waited until mid-March.

As the report shows, if Trump had acted just one week earlier to close down the economy, 36,000 lives would likely have been saved.  If he acted only two weeks earlier and ordered stricter protective measures for the economy on March 1, then 54,000 lives would have been saved.  At the moment, as of late Thursday night, the number of American lives that have been reported as lost is 96,354.  Which means that over half of the lives lost could have been saved.  And the spread of the coronavirus would have been significantly more contained, which some areas of the country not having any infections.

Now, it can be argued that one can always say, "If only we had acted earlier..." and doing so is Monday Morning quarterbacking.  Except that's not the case here.

For starters, it was on February 26 when Trump said that In a few days there will be 2-3 cases and then soon it will be gone like a miracle.  And so he didn't act.  That means the reality is that he knew of the threat, he knew he was being pushed to take protective measures and he not only didn't, but didn't because he was specifically dismissing that a problem even existing -- that a miracle soon would make it all go away.  And we have a date on that to point to -- February 26.  Before the Columbia University study said he could have acted and saved 54,000 lives.

Moreover, we know from an op-ed that Joe Biden wrote in USA Today on January 27 about actions that should be taken to deal with the corona and keep it from spreading.  That's over a full month before when Trump could have acted and saved 54,000 lives.  Now, of course, no one expects Trump to have taken Joe Biden's advice (though if he had, 54,000 lives would have been saved), but the point is that this isn't a case of second-guessing Trump's inaction -- but putting yet another marker on an earlier date ( a much earlier date here) when it was known that there was a problem and action was needed.  Yet a month later, Trump dismissed all the evidence of experts and insisted on his own that it was not a problem, it was like the flu, and it would all go away soon, like a "miracle."

And it turns out, shockingly, that all the medical and science experts were right, and Trump guessing from his belief-filled gut was totally, blatantly, obviously wrong -- and so 54,000 Americans died when their lives could have been saved.  And if he still wasn't sure and hesitated, and waited another week before acting, then still, 36,000 lives could have been saved.  But he waited one more week, as the problem was growing and all the expert advice was growing and the alarm bells were pounding relentlessly -- and as the Columbia University study empirically shows, all those lives were needlessly lost, ultimately 54,000 of them.

So, when I write -- this isn't about Trump, we know who he is, this is about the elected members of the Republican Party who enable him and are complicit and have blood on their hands -- I mean it.  Quite literally.