Yesterday, the Arizona Supreme Court ruled that an 1864 law essentially banning all abortion superseded a state law passed two years ago. Horrific as this was for women in the state, it’s a disaster for Republicans across the country, including those who support a national ban on abortion. (The only exception in this 1864 law is to save the life of the mother. But even with that one caveat, it’s worth remember that just the past year there are been cases where courts in Red states got involved to overrule doctors in what the life-risks were to women.) Let’s put this in perspective: It’s not just that this law is from 160 years ago – but Arizona wasn’t even a state in 1864, only a territory. It wouldn’t become a state for another half-century. More to the point, in 1864, the status of women was so low that they weren’t allowed to vote. That right wouldn’t come until 1920, when the 19th Amendment was passed. In fact, the Arizona world of 1864, especially for women, was so incompatible with today, so draconian, that the age of sexual consent and marriage for girls in the state was 10 years old. And that’s the year Arizona will now have on the books for basically outlawing all abortion, rather than one passed two years ago. If anything can send up warning flares for the 2024 election, this was it. So high that even many Republicans in the state – and elsewhere – are expressing concern. Kari Lake, who is a candidate for the U.S. Senate from Arizona, decried the court ruling and called for current Democratic governor Katie Hobbs (who defeated Lake for the position) to start working to create a “common sense” bill that could pass the state legislature. It should be noted that Lake herself didn’t suggest what should be in that “common sense” bill – likely concerned that her “sense” isn’t as common as the rest of the state, especially since about 70% of registered voters across the country have expressed support of Roe v. Wade. This includes Republican Congressman Juan Ciscomani who joined Lake in disagreement with the state Supreme Court decision. But best of all was Steve Bannon, of all people, deeply concerned on his podcast about the ruling. Which is especially weird because you’d think he would widely embrace an abortion ban. Indeed, you’d think most, if not many MAGOPs would be singing the praises of an abortion ban in Arizona, since a national abortion ban seems to be on the party’s wish list and planning. So, why then are they so deeply concerned and upset about court ruling you’d like was their greatest wish?? Well, you see, there is a petition to put an abortion rights bill on the Arizona ballot this fall, and if it gets on, it only would need a majority vote to pass. It needs 400,000 signatures to quality – and at the moment, it has 500,000! And there are still several months to go for supporters to gather even more signatures. Now, keep in mind that special elections for abortion rights have passed by wide margins in every state where they’ve been on the ballot, including in Red states like Kansas and Ohio. Republicans have fought desperately to keep such bills off their state ballots, to no success so far – in fact, the Florida state Supreme Court just allowed such a bill to be eligible for the state ballot. And again: this Republican concern has been, as I said, even in Red states, where the losing debate has been over banning abortion after 6 or perhaps 15 weeks. Imagine now an abortion debate is over a total ban! And then remember that this isn’t a Red state, or even a Blue state, but…a Swing State. Arizona really matters this year, a lot. And not just for the presidential race, but there’s a major Senate race, as well, critical for control of the U.S. Senate. It’s between Democrat Ruben Gallego and Republican Kari Lake – hey, remember her??! No wonder the Steve Bannons of the world and others are horrified by this total abortion ban in Arizona. It’s one thing to call for it and rile up your base. It’s one thing to pretend you’re shuffling towards the center, just to get in office, where you can than push for a national abortion ban after you’re elected and safely in office. But…but…to actually have a real total abortion ban on the books staring voters in the face as they head to the polls in November, that’s the worst nightmare an anti-abortion advocate can have. Oh, my, be careful what you wish for. The issue, too, isn’t just a focus on Arizona, but across the country. For two reasons. First, Democrats can point to Arizona and show, see, this is what Republicans really want. A total national abortion ban. Elect Republicans to the Senate and House – and presidency – and this is likely what they will push for if they get control. Is that a risk you’re willing to take?? No matter how much Republicans are trying to flim-flam the public and shuffle towards the center. Just look at Arizona. See what they have there. An actual, real, true, honest total abortion ban. And second, only days ago, Trump released in shuffle-footed attempt to obfuscate his position. One the one hand, claiming responsibility for overturning Roe v. Wade (which is the main outrage for abortion rights supporters) – while on the other hand, insisting that all he supposedly really wants is for each state to decide for themselves about abortion. And then days later – WHAM!! There is Arizona ruling that there should be a total ban on abortion. Imagine him going on the campaign trail and crying out for states making the decision – as “What about Arizon???!!” is shouted out by the vast majority of women listening around the country. Not to mention all the men who support abortion right. And anyone else horrified by a total abortion ban. And the specter Arizona causes for a national abortion ban. This is what so many MAGOPs have been crying about wanting for years. A total abortion ban. And in Arizona – a Swing State, with a major Senate race being contested -- they got it. And lest anyone think I'm exaggerating the huge importance of this court decision in Arizona -- after I wrote this article offline yesterday and went to code it for posting today, I first checked my email. And there was a fundraising email for Democratic candidate for the U.S. Senate in Arizona, Ruben Gallego. Its subject like was, "a dark day". As the expression goes: don't take my word for it, here's what the candidate himself said, and how his note opens. It's like he was looking over my shoulder...or I was looking over his -- Robert, I am incredibly disappointed. Be careful what you wish for. You just might get it.
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AuthorRobert J. Elisberg is a political commentator, screenwriter, novelist, tech writer and also some other things that I just tend to keep forgetting. Feedspot Badge of Honor
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