Over the past month, I’ve been reading stories in the local papers or other news sources about how former Los Angeles Dodger Steve Garvey is improving in the polls for U.S. Senator for California, as if this news means him might win.
I am so tired of these articles and reports. In fairness, I was tired of them when the first such story appeared. Imagine the weariness now a month and several new polls later. But by now, please, just stop it. If you can't respect your audience, at least respect reality. Steve Garvey is not going to become a U.S. Senator from California. Never mind that California is a very blue state. Or that there are three Democrats in the race who are highly admired – Representatives Adam Schiff, Katie Porter and Barbara Lee. Or that Garvey has zero political experience. Or a 25% favorable rating. Or that his squeaky-clean All American Boy image got badly tarnished after he left the Dodgers, with stories of his teammates disliking him so much they’d get into fights in the locker room, and then his divorce. Or all those together. Just look at the polling data itself – the same polling data that shows Garvey “improving” in the polls, as articles suggest he might actually win. He is “improving” in the polls much the same way that Nikki Haley is “improving” in Republican polls, yet 40 points behind the guy in first place. In Haley’s case, of course, she’s running against someone under four indictments who has been found guilty of fraud and liable for the equivalence of rape. With Garvey, he’s running against people who didn’t try to overthrow the government. Further, one of those who he’s running against led the House impeachment trial against Trump. Another is best known for hanging corporate executives out to dry in House hearings. And the third is the only person in all of Congress who had the courage to vote against what is now seen as the disastrous Afghanistan War. So, Garvey can’t point to his opponents as trying to overthrow democracy, and therefore he has an even higher wall to get over than Nikki Haley. Is Steve Garvey improving in the polls? Absolutely. Does he have a chance of becoming U.S. Senator from California? Not even remotely. Let’s go to the numbers for perspective – Three days ago, the Los Angeles Times reported on a poll from the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies. And there, Adam Schiff leads with 21%. Katie Porter has 17%. And Steve Garvey has moved up to 13%. Barbara Lee is at 9%. So, yes, one-by-one, that looks like Garvey has a chance. Except he doesn’t. Steve Garvey has no chance. Keep in mind, what’s at play is the state primary. And the way it works in California is that -- unless a candidate gets 50% of the primary vote, which won’t happen here -- the two top vote-getters then face each other in the general election. And right now, among these top four contenders, the three Democrats lead Garvey by…47-13%! (Most of the others polled are undecided. But being very blue California with three well-liked Democratic candidates, undecided voters are likely undecided between Adam Schiff, Katie Porter and Barbara Lee. Not undecided between Steve Garvey and Adam Schiff. Or between Garvey and four no-name GOP each polling around 2%.) In fact, if you add up all the Democratic candidates on the ballot, including a few lesser names, they add up to 51%. And that doesn’t included what is near-certainly the bulk of the undecided votes. So, it’s likely that, at the moment – making a pure guess estimate – Democrats are beating Steve Garvey/Republicans by 65-35%. Or maybe even as high as 70-30% Steve Garvey is not going to become a U.S. Senator from California. At best for Garvey, it means Katie Porter won't finish second in the primary to get in the general election run-off. That would be a shame, because a general election race between her and Adam Schiff would be close (though Schiff has been ahead of her since polling began). But a race in very blue California between highly-admired Adam Schiff, who was chairman of the House Judiciary Committee and was lead prosecutor against Trump in his first impeachment trial (and who is even a bit of a “martyr” figure to Democrats because Republicans, in acts of spiteful political retribution for his activities against Trump, censured him and also kicked him off the Intelligence Committee), and former first-baseman Steve Garvey – who has zero experience, is 75 years old, and last played baseball 37 years ago in 1987, long before a great many voters were even born, many who have no idea who he is – will be a blow-out. A Garvey race against either Katie Porter or Barbara Lee wouldn’t be much different. No, not knowing that Steve Garvey played baseball does not mean some people won’t vote for him – but when your sole claim to fame on which you’re running is “I played for the Dodgers,” it’s a huge hurdle. On top of the other massive, existing hurdles he faces -- like running against highly admired Democrats in a very blue state. Steve Garvey is not going to become a U.S. Senator from California. I’m sure that Garvey’s team and delusional Republicans like to point at Arnold Schwarzenegger getting elected governor. But that was a wildly-different situation. For starters, it was two decades ago, when politics was oh-so monumentally different, without things like Insurrection, abortion, democracy and wanna-be fascist dictators as part of the landscape. But also, he was a Very Big Hollywood Star who won, not in a normal one-against-one race, but after a recall election, in which Democrats didn’t put up any major opponents on an open ballot, since they were fighting the recall. There was a debate of all candidates that was referred to as being sort of like Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs. Later, as the incumbent, he was re-elected, but it’s worth noting, he left office with a 27% approval. This is not the world Steve Garvey faces. One where, among everything else, Democrats are outpolling him, at a minimum, 51-13%. And likely winning the vast majority of undecideds. Teeth-gnashing articles about Garvey “improving” in the polls, as if it means he might win, without making clear that the only thing this actually means is that he’ll be on the general election ballot with no chance of winning, are nothing more than clickbait stories, disingenuous attempts to make it appear like there’s a horserace. There is no horserace in which Steve Garvey is one of the horses. At best, he will finish second in the primary (which is fair to write as story) and then jog along in the general election as the Democratic candidate gallops by. Steve Garvey is not going to become a U.S. Senator from California. Enough already. The news media should write news stories for what the news actually is. Not what you think you can fool people into misunderstanding by obfuscating the larger view, just to make it look like there’s a close competition. And no, Nikki Haley isn’t getting the Republican nomination either. Even if she too improves in the polls -- and closes the gap to 30 points.
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AuthorRobert J. Elisberg is a political commentator, screenwriter, novelist, tech writer and also some other things that I just tend to keep forgetting. Feedspot Badge of Honor
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