The other day, I was having an email exchange with a good friend who's very liberal, but is insistent that President Biden would lose a match-up against Trump. ("It's a big if he can win," is how he put it.) I should add that my friend is a very bright guy, and also inherently deeply cynical. I asked on what basis he held his belief, and (without going into full detail) he replied along the lines that the perception of Biden is that he's much older than Trump, that young voters wouldn't want to vote for someone that old, and minorities are unhappy with Biden.
It was a well-written, thoughtful answer, as I told him, but added that I don’t think almost any of it addressed the issue fully, but rather just skimmed the landscape, took the quick, easy view and was almost totally surface. Which I think is often the case for TV analysis when you're only given a few minutes to comment. For important, complex things especially, however, you usually have to look under the hood. As I had said to him earlier in our exchange, even I think Biden is too old -- the biggest issue against him -- …and yet will unquestioningly vote for him against Trump without even a blink of hesitancy. Furthermore, I told my friend that I was 100% sure he will, too. And no, he didn't contradict me. What I added was that he much too-conveniently dismissed Trump's own age as an issue by saying that even though, yes, he's almost as old as Biden, it isn’t a problem merely because Trump doesn’t “seem” as old. I disagree hugely. After all, just the other week, Trump was ranting (yet again) about running about Barack Obama, and about Joe Biden at risk of causing "WWII." And screwing up world leaders and countries. That’s not just Trump losing it, but losing it specifically because he is too old. And it shows. Also, at the moment, because Joe Biden is President and Trump is not even a nominee yet, is avoiding debates and giving speeches only to his base, we see far more of Biden than Trump -- but once they’re both the official candidates, we’ll see them side-by-side, and “Biden’s age” will be offset by Trump’s own, significant age issues, including what appears to an untrained eye as growing mania. (I would also suggest that for a presidential candidate, regularly forgetting major, crucial details and crazed, old-man ranting is much more a problem than is walking smoothly.) Further, I have a strongly held belief about polls now. Right now, it’s SO early before the election that people are responding only by individual “approval.” And Republicans adore Trump, so his approval isn’t in the toilet. But once both are the official party nominees, and the question is no longer “Do you approve of…”, but rather “One of these two men WILL be the next president, who do you want?”, that’s a totally different question. Moreover, I believe the debates will be crucial. Seeing them side-by-side. And two questions that I’m sure will get asked (or Biden will bring them up) will be -- I think -- devastating for Trump. The first is -- “Mr. Trump, who do you think won the 2020 election?” He will say he did, and then go on a wild rant about how it was stolen from him -- with the actual president standing calmly next to him. And Trump will look insane, as he rants about his efforts to overthrow democracy. And the other question will be -- “Mr. Trump, would do you say to people who don’t believe we should elect someone who was found liable of, as the judge wrote, the equivalence of rape?” And again, he’ll go on a wild rant about how “I never knew that women, I never met her, the trial was rigged” -- and he’ll look nuts. I think a third devastating, debate question can now be added to the list. "Mr. Trump -- in your online posts, you have used language that echoes Hitler, with plans for interment camps and deportation based on religion. How do you convince people to vote for someone with those views?" (I know some people wonder if Trump will participate in presidential debate. But I think it deeply unlikely that he won't. However, if he doesn't, that alone will be seen as cowardly and problematic, especially for Independents trying to decide.) As for young people, they are likely to come out and vote Democratic in big numbers because there are three huge issues they care deeply about – abortion, the environment and gun control. Those are all big Biden/Democratic issues. (Not to mention college debt relief.) Women -- as we’ve seen in special elections -- are outraged over abortion and voting Democratic in huge numbers. And while Latino, Black and Arab-American groups have shown disappointment with President Biden, I firmly believe that when side-to-side against Trump as the alternative, who wants to build internment camps and deport people based on their religion, I suspect that much of that disappointment will be balanced by horror at what's ghoulishly worse. In fact, to support this belief, NBC just had a poll that, for what it was asking, I think is more significant than early “horse race” approval polls. One-issue voters were asked what the one issue is that was so important to them it would determine their vote. The first two issues were democracy and abortion. And fourth was guns. Together, those were 46% of respondents. All told, 50% of one-issue voters named exclusively Democratic issues that would determine their vote. But importantly, this wasn’t out of 100%, since 21% of those polled said “None of the above.” What this means is by a massive margin of 50%-29%, one-issue respondents said a Democratic issue would determine their vote. But also, keep in mind, these results were “just” for one-issue voters. It's only fair to think they are also high among the main issues, let alone the main issues, that drives all voters. (The reason why I think this poll is far more significant than "approval" polls a full year before the election is because it's asking people what they stand for, something so important it isn’t likely to change. Also worth noting: these results don’t relate only to the presidential race, but -- for a one-issue voter -- to any candidate in any race.) Now add the dysfunction we’re seeing of the GOP in the House. Unable to pass a bill of any significance. Perhaps shutting down the government, and even just bringing up “impeachment hearings” with zero evidence -- both of which are issues the public has always shown they hate. (Bill Clinton’s approval skyrocketed to 81% when he got impeached -- and there were reasons for it. Not good ones, but reasons.) And finally voting a full-blown religious zealot as their House Speaker, who says his world view is based on the Bible and calls abortion an evil. Then add that Trump is under four indictments, been found liable to rape, been found guilty of fraud, and there will be actual trials between now and the election – and the Georgia trial might be televised. And include all the GOP extremist candidates, which we saw in 2020 get pummeled. Republicans would supposed to win 60 seats in the House in an off-year election. They got a five-seat majority. And lost control of the Senate. The public hated the extremism – and the GOP didn’t get any less extremist. I don’t know who will win. I don’t think it’s an easy win for Biden in the slightest. It will be a close election in the Electoral College. But -- I think Trump and Republicans have massively bigger problems that many give them. Democrats understandably concerned about the election tend to only look at the negatives that Biden and the party have (and those negatives are very real), but downplay -- to the degree, it seems, of ignoring -- how huge GOP and Trump negatives are. Far, far great then Biden’s and Democrats’, I think. To be very clear, I’m not wearing rose-colored glasses and being wildly optimistic that, oh, gee, of course, Democrats will win easily, based on no reasons, but just cheery positivity. I’m saying it will be close, but here are the many reasons Democrats have in their favor and the many horrific things Republicans have against them. (Like, y'know, echoing Hitler, calling for interment camps, having four indictments, wanting a national abortion ban, banning books, and extremist fascist candidates...for a starter. As opposed to "Biden is three years older than Trump.") Yes, President Biden's poll numbers are low -- but so are Trump's. So, while the election will be close, I don’t think it’s a “big if” that Biden will win, and do think he’s more likely to. The one factor I don’t know is how the Electoral College will break down, which is another reason general polls don’t matter. And why horse-race approval polls right now don't either. I wish President Biden was younger. And I wish he had better poll numbers. But mostly, I'm thrilled he doesn't come even remotely close to having the truly dystopian problems Trump and Republicans do.
2 Comments
Don Friedman
11/27/2023 12:06:37 pm
I always say that 150 million people voted in the 2020 election and I know maybe 30-50 of them. So I have no idea how the election will turn out. First-time voters, turnout efforts and results, issues not on the frontline last time, third party candidates--all of these and more are unknowable variables.
Reply
Robert Elisberg
11/27/2023 03:10:00 pm
Don, thanks for your note, and I don't disagree. I do think there are factors that *can* be commented on (as I do here), but there are far too many unknowns and variables (as you note) where one cannot predict -- especially this early -- what the results will be
Reply
Leave a Reply. |
AuthorRobert J. Elisberg is a political commentator, screenwriter, novelist, tech writer and also some other things that I just tend to keep forgetting. Feedspot Badge of Honor
Archives
May 2024
Categories
All
|
© Copyright Robert J. Elisberg 2024
|