Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugam had a great seven-tweet thread over the weekend, aided significantly by two clear-to-understand charts in particular. His premise was, as he wrote, that "Recent economic news has been extremely good. But there's a strange meme among some D consultants that Biden shouldn't boast about it, because it seems out of touch — that people aren't feeling the good economy. But they are!" What Krugman described was that Democrats and Independents actually show they understand the economy is getting significantly better, but Republicans are so heavily the opposite that it's that which brings numbers down so much that polls show "the public" thinks the economy is bad. When it's not "the public" at all, but just Republicans. Further, Krugman notes that this is always what Republicans do historically when a Democrat is in the White House. And he has the charts and data to back him up. Here's the first chart about Republicans. To clarify what it show, since much of the writing is small -- The horizontal numbers along the bottom are months/years. The vertical numbers are the percentages of how good people feel. The higher, of course, the better. The baseline of 0% is the top horizontal line of that pinkish area. (You'll also see vertical dotted lines. Those are hard to read, but they're all markers about notable events in the news that affect economics.) The numbers start very low, at -60%, on the far left. That's around February, 2016, when Barack Obama was finishing his last year as President. When you see the number go high, that starts in January, 2017 -- when Trump took office. When it dips very briefly, that's basically around April, 2020, at the beginning of COVID. It starts to go up again around June, 2020 -- meaning Republicans only felt bad about the economy during COVID for just a couple of months. And level off for a very long time (during COVID!) at a consistent 90%. When you see the number plummet again -- that's (oh, okay, you can figure this out by now) January, 2021...when Joe Biden was sworn in as President. Now, here is the chart that polled Democrats, covering the same time-frame. The numbers are high during Barack Obama's last year in office, though more reasonable, not at the steady 90% sentiment Republicans gave Trump during COVID. And yes, the numbers do start to drop when Trump takes office (around the two vertical dotted lines). But as you can see, Democrats didn't plummet the Trump numbers below zero, but rated them somewhat fairly, all in the positive range, only slowly dropping over time, unevenly. The numbers do eventually plummet -- but that's during COVID, and last about a year (not the "two months" Republicans gave it. And though numbers do start to go when Joe Biden becomes President in January, 2021, you'll note that Democrats are still be fair by acknowledging that the economy is not good and not recovered yet, still rating the Biden economy below 0%. Democrats finally give the economy a positive rating around April, 2021 -- though not skyrocketed up to 90%, but realistically around only 5%. And even as their sentiment grows, Democrats still are honest enough to only give the rating a 35%. And it drops below the 0% baseline for Democrats in May, 2022. But then jumps back up a couple months later. Why? You see that vertical dotted line? That's when the Inflation Reduction Act passed, and people got checks and economic relief. Look back at the Republican chart -- after the Inflation Reduction Act passed, and they got checks and their economic situation improved with all Americans, they gave the economy a -95%! And since then, Democrats have watched the economy improve and -- though not dancing on the ceiling at a 90% GOP level -- their opinion of the economy has grown along with the encouraging economic news to 40%. As for Independents, Krugman says that polls show that Independents who lean Republican react the same as Republicans -- and Independents who lean Democratic react the same as Democrats. So, the charts have Independent reaction built into them. The point being, as Krugman writes, is that along Democratic numbers are lower than the economic news suggests they should be, "Democrats have more or less fully accepted the good news." And his larger point is that despite what the overall polls show "the public" thinks about the economy, since that includes Republicans who always says the economy is terrible when Democrats are in the White House, Democrats and Democrat-leaning Independents actually fell pretty good with it -- as they should. And therefore, the party shouldn't be at all reticent about talking about it. Or as Krugman puts it -- "So people who will say you're out of touch if you tout the current economy are people who will never, ever vote Democrat anyway. Boast away!"
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AuthorRobert J. Elisberg is a political commentator, screenwriter, novelist, tech writer and also some other things that I just tend to keep forgetting. Feedspot Badge of Honor
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