Donald Duck

Boy howdy, yesterday made it really difficult to know what to write about today.

After all, it of course starts with the Epstein files, which for all the months-long efforts by MAGOPs to block a vote on releasing them, passed in the House by 427-1 and got a unanimous consent vote in the Senate.  If anything shows the steamroller effect of what the Epstein story is now, that is it.  We still don't know if Trump has any involvement of any kind with Jeffrey Epstein -- we only know that after railing about the Epstein files  throughout the 2024 campaign, stirring up the base about the scandal, and promising to release the files if elected, he has done everything he can to block them since getting elected.  (We also know that, despite insisting he knows nothing about what Epstein was doing, he says that he had Epstein kicked out of his club -- a club that, in reality, Epstein never joined -- because he was a "a sick pervert". A surprising bit of knowledge for someone who keeps insisting he knows nothing about what Epstein was doing.

But then there also was the major story that a Federal judge in Texas threw out the state's attempt to gerrymander five seats.  And the ruling was all the more damning because the judge who made the ruling was not just conservative, but a Trump appointee.  Clearly, we'll have to see what the the Supreme Court does.  But for now, it’s got to horrify MAGOPs and Trump.  

And worse for Texas (and MAGOPs), is that their attempt to gerrymander the state may come back to haunt them -- because California lawmakers originally planned to make their Democratic gerrymander legally contingent on Texas' Republican gerrymander going forward — but the version of the ballot proposition that passed didn't include that requirement.

"Since everyone is asking: No, this doesn't undo Prop. 50," wrote Redistricting Partners owner Paul Mitchell. "The trigger language was removed in the legislative process as it was clear that TX was redistricting. So, even if their map is invalidated/postponed, the Prop 50 maps stay in place."

Fun Fact:  Paul Mitchell isn’t just an analyst giving his opinion.  He’s literally the guy who was hired to write Prop. 50!!

But then there was also the story of Trump's disastrous press event at the White House with the murderous Saudi despot Prince Mohammed bin Salam who U.S. intelligence services said had approved the killing and dismemberment of journalist and American resident Jamal Khashoggi.  The Saudi Prince's invitation to the White House was divisive enough on its own (even with Trump's MAGA base).  But Trump made is so much worse when he smeared Khasghoggi and slammed a reporter for asking a question to the murderous Saudi prince and “embarrassing our guest.”  Never mind him embarrassing his guest Volodymyr Zelenskyy.  But Trump made it even worse for himself (and yes, with Trump, that's always possible) by how he smeared Khashoggi, saying that he thinks people have it coming if they are "extremely controversial. A lot of people didn't like that gentleman".  Man, if that shows a total lack of self-awareness, nothing does.

I will make the non-controversial statement that that is absolutely no reason for anyone to have it coming...

But all those stories got a lot of highly-deserved attention yesterday.  One other story slipped under the wire, and -- while not so much an actual news event, it's something that all these other stories permeate.  So, that's what most caught my eye, even among these other critically important stories.

It's a new major poll from the well-regarded AP-NORC organization.

And their results show that Trump’s approval has now plummeted to only 33%!!!  After just 10 months in office.  That's only about six months after a president's honeymoon ends.  Those are numbers a wildly popular president only gets his last three months in office.

And helping these dismal numbers is that his support among MAGOPs went from 81% down to…68%!  Disastrous.  And it can't be overstated.  After all, we'll find out if this signals the start of Donald Trump as a lame duck, a full year before that happens for most final-term presidents.  He'll still have power and get disastrous things done, but for Trump, his most important power within his party has been his stranglehold on the adoration and loyalty of its voters -- if any MAGOP in Congress dares act against Trump, a word from the White House will get a primary challenge with a Trump endorsement.  You can do that with a 95% support in the party, that the Gallup Poll showed Trump once had as late as October, 2020.  And you can do it with an 81% approval among MAGAs, as well.  But not with 68%.  Consider:  that's much closer to a minority 49% approval than it is to his once-95%.  Is Donald Trump a lame duck already?  That doesn't happen for most presidents until after the Mid-Terms.  So, it might not be the case right now.  But if he's not a lame duck yet, he's hobbling in that direction.  Just look at the Epstein vote yesterday against him:  427-1 in the House, unanimous consent in the Senate.

And among independents, the group that decides close elections his approval dropped from 38% to only 25%.  Which is the territory he's in with Hispanic, voters, a critical base for him and the MAGOP in 2024.  But the thing is, if his approval in his own party is only 68%, there may be a whole lot fewer “close elections” than usual.

The AP-NORC has generally been slightly lower than some other polls, though not by a lot.  That doesn’t mean it’s wrong, of course.  But even if it’s four points lower than some of the polls that are higher, what's important in any poll is the direction its going, and this shows that Donald Trump's slide is not just continuing downward, but the bottom is dropping out, and dropping by four points -- outside their margin-of-error.  Which means means that those higher polls could be a deeply-problematic 37%.

As I've written, it’s only going to get worse, because he has surrounded himself with unqualified incompetents and so there is no one around him who can help.  In fact, many have caused the problems.  And also, when you have a high approval, the public forgives a misstep -- but when you'd wildly unpopular, a misstep confirms why people don't like you. Indeed, when you’re plummeting this fast and this much, it’s hard to put on the brakes.  Especially since you don’t know where the brakes are.

And above all, it will only get worse for Donald Trump, who will be 80 at the Mid-Terms, because he has dementia, which is degenerative.

​What else does it all signify?  We'll find out, as members of his party in Congress start looking at their own reelections.  As they might have just done.