From this afternoon's Huffington Post. A front page headline reads: "Cosby Team Announces 'Assault Education' Tour."
Good Lord, I hope it's not a "How to" seminar...
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Thus far, four Republicans senators have said "No" to the TrumpCare bill in its current version -- Rand Paul, Mike Lee, Ted Cruz and Ron Johnson, although for different reasons. There is no word yet from Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski, and Rob Portman, who had been reported on the fence -- or any others, for that matter.
Sen. Paul (R-KY) said they weren't trying to kill the bill, but hoping there could be changes that would make the bill something they'd support. There are several problems with that. The first is that the four who've thus far said "No," did so for different reasons, as I noted, so that makes fixing it far more of a challenge. Also, the easiest way to pass the bill would be before the House to vote on the Senate bill and approve it, as is -- but with so many changes required in the Senate bill for these four (and it's four just to begin with...) to accept it, that will make House passage of the exact same bill far less likely. And that means Reconciliation would be required, which is a big challenge on such a delicate bill trying to please so many different views. And all this is before the Congressional Budget Office has weighed in to "score" the bill for its cost and how many Americans will lose health coverage. And before the public chimes in with its reaction -- that has a starting point of only 17% of the public likes the House version of the TrumpCare bill. One of the fun sketches that Saturday Night Live would occasionally run in the past, when Seth Meyers and Amy Poehler hosted "Weekend Update" was their "Really!?! with Seth and Amy" segment. Well, as it happens the other night, Amy Poehler was a guest on Meyers' Late Night show, and to the wild and enthusiastic delight of the audience, they brought it back. We're heading back to the Al Franken Well today, but no videos here. Instead, it's for a couple of wonderful first-person stories by my pal Mark Evanier about the two times he briefly met Franken before he was yet planning to run for the Senate. You can read it here.
Last week, the Senior class president Peter Butera of Wyoming Area Secondary Center in Exeter, Pennsylvania, went off-script as he gave his Commencement Address (he was also the Valedictorian). When he began to criticize the school administration, however, his microphone was cut, and he was escorted off the stage. Which brings us again to the Law of Unintended Consequences. The school administration didn't want the speech heard by those few in attendance. What happened, though, is that Jimmy Kimmel not only brought the 18-year-old onto his TV show last night, which shined a massive Kleig light of attention on the event -- but also gave him a national platform to complete his speech! Far, far beyond those few in attendance. One quibble: at one point, Kimmel asks the young man what his grade point average was. Butera starts to explain that his school doesn't use traditional letter grades, which brings Kimmel quickly jumping in with a joke about the student trying to weasle out of answer. Unfortunately, he didn't realize that no Valedictorian would try to weasle out of anything about his grades and, more to the point, when making his joke he doesn't hear Butera explaining that instead the school uses a 100-point scale for grading, and he was about to give his score on that level, when Kimmel cut him off. I'm going to make a wild guess -- given that he was Valedictorian -- that his grade score was very high. That aside, as you'll hear, his speech -- including what he hadn't been allowed to say -- is awfully thoughtful and good. I have no idea if the GOP will be able to pass their "health care" bill. It still seems dicey in the Senate which can't have as few as three defections, and then they have to reconcile the two bills with the even-more partisan House, which has an especially-conservative bill.
But after the two "wins" yesterday in special elections, I suspect Republicans will now feel emboldened that they still have this mandate with the country behind them and so will continue to play Thelma & Louise and drive cheeringly off the cliff. (Let's quickly recap. Forget that Trump lost the popular vote by three million, though that's the starting point. The more pressing realities are two-fold. First, that the House "health care" bill only has a 17% approval. And second, as good as it is to "win" two congressional elections, a) both were in incredibly safe Republican districts which remarkably lost TWENTY POINTS in each, in just a mere seven months, and b) even had the Democrats won both, the already-big GOP House majority would have bee completely safe. So, celebrating these wins as importantly meaningful and continuing to drive recklessly because all's well is living in a Fool's Paradise, with a cliff up ahead.) But lets say they do pass a bill, and their representatives all cheer the passage with another group hug and photo at the White House, high-fiving one another in joyous, giddy celebration. The reality, however, that they will then have to face is two-fold: The first is that what the public knows of the Republican plan is so problematic that it has only a monumentally horrific 17% approval. And secondly, the very next day after it becomes law, Republicans will immediately have to live with it as THEIR agenda. Giving literal meaning to the phrase, "The law of unintended consequences." The thing is, even if it doesn't pass, Republicans still have to live with this. This is a bill that just a paltry 17% of Americans like -- and whether or not it passes, the GOP will have to defend it. Will have to explain to the public why they thought something so deeply disliked was a good thing. And keep in mind, too, that that meager 17% approval comes before people are affected by it and have their health care coverage cut or lost entirely. And if that overlaps with any of the 17% who today are all for the law (many, perhaps, merely because it was "Obamacare," Obama's law...) -- something that seems likely -- even that horribly low number could drop. As the phrase goes: Be careful what you wish for, you just might get it. |
AuthorRobert J. Elisberg is a political commentator, screenwriter, novelist, tech writer and also some other things that I just tend to keep forgetting. Feedspot Badge of Honor
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