Sarah Longwell is a conservative political consultant and publisher of the news and opinion website The Bulwark. Although conservative, she's one who left the GOP and is now a former member of the Republican Party. The foundation of her work is as a focus group analyst, and a couple weeks ago she was doing an episode of The Focus Group Podcast which she hosts. Her guest that week was Amy Walter, publisher and editor-in-chief of the highly-regarded Cook Political Report.
One particular thing on that episode stood out. Longwell told a story about how, during a recent focus group interview she was holding with Trump voters in Georgia, she was not only confused by the highly positive things the people were saying about Trump's blunt, vocal nemesis Jon Ossoff, but she said she was so confused that she had to stop and text her researchers to make sure the people she was talking to were, in fact, actually Trump voters! And yes, she was told, they were.
"I like Jon Ossoff,," one voter told Longwell. "I have voted for him before. I appreciate him because he does fight for the little guy. He just really represents the marginalized community very well. He's always looking out for us."
Another of the Trump voters was blunt about Rep. Mike Collins, Ossoff's upcoming opponent in the Mid-Terms. "Collins is Trump's lap dog," he blistered.. "Daddy Trump said this, this is what I need to do. He's not leading."
One of the other's in the focus group said that, although he was Republic, he knew almost nothing about Republican Collins beyond attack ads. "Everything I see on TV is just really Ossoff or attacking Ossoff. I don't really see why Collins is promoting himself."
Cook Political Report's Amy Walter said that the mood in the room seemed to be part of a broader problem Republicans are facing. She noted a big caution to the party that her own polling finds that "their base is exhausted" as the midterms near and that the "enthusiasm gap is like a chasm right now."
As readers here know, the enthusiasm gap is a big theme of these pages. So, it's nice to see such an expert as Amy Walter chime in on it.
Longwell agreed she could "feel" the fatigue in the room. The Trump voters she spent her time talking with sounded "kind of getting over this Trump stuff." She added that this exhaustion wasn't about party policy matters, but more a case of tired Trump voters retreat to their old, more comfortable stand of culture-war fights because there was very little policy that felt to them like like a win.
I think this focus group is very meaningful for the Mid-Terms, though not necessarily for how the Trump voters reacted towards Jon Ossoff. You can't extrapolate that to all races across the country -- yes, the depth of support for Sen. Ossoff in that group is surprising, but he's a sitting senator, and not a challenger to an incumbent. And as Red as Georgia may be, they do have two U.S. senators.
What I think is most meaningful though is the atmosphere in that room that both experienced analysts discussed. The enthusiasm gap. If you're getting a sense of "fatigue" and the base being "exhausted" and MAGOP policy not feeling like a win to them -- that is a massive problem for the party.
In fact, this exhaustion and lack of enthusiasm is one reason why Trump's effort to undermine mail-in voting might backfire on his party. Even if the Supreme Court allows it (which I think unlikely even for this court, but I wouldn't bet on that...), people will still be able to vote, they'll just have to go to their polling place. That's more difficult than just mailing in your ballot -- but because of this exhaustion and lack of enthusiasm among the MAGA base, and high enthusiasm for Democrats and Independents, this all could result in more Democrats and Independents going to the polls than MAGA.
All from fatigue and being exhausted. As well they should be. It's debilitating to be dragged along through the dirt and muck for years by a wannabe despot with dementia who is ruining your lives.
