A Tough Nut to Crack

Many MAGOP candidates are anxiously looking at a $400 million PAC that Trump controls, hoping they'll get financial support from it. And some will. Whether they end up getting the support they're hoping for is another question.

For starters, Trump has said he'll campaign in races that are close -- with the polling tied, or the MAGOP candidate slightly ahead or slightly behind. The thing is, it's not likely that Trump coming to those districts will be especially helpful. With Purple races like that, it would seem the best thing for MAGOP candidates would be to separate themselves from Trump, with this a 32% approval. Trump's appearance might be best in a Red district where the gap is closer than ideal, and the MAGOP candidate needs a "get out the vote" effort.

But mostly, Trump has said his going to use most of his war chest -- not to give money to campaigns, which is what they need -- but to buy air time in districts to promote himself. And remind voters how great and successful he has been. Never mind that he's not on the ballot nor running. Never mind that the local candidates really do actually need the money -- for staff, for flyers, for mailers, for renting office space and more.

But no, Trump will be buying air time and releasing ads.

And Trump's MAGA, Inc. PAC put out its first ad yesterday. It begins with a glowing tribute from Dana White, head of the UFC, the group that recently held that big cage fight on the White House lawn. The ad is called "Tough Guy.

In the spirit of crossing the aisle and election equality, I thought I'd help Trump and MAGOP candidates out and help spread the message.

https://video.wixstatic.com/video/d220c5_6dcf97bd1d874034b6dac9035ff60f51/720p/mp4/file.mp4

Cool. Although...well, okay, you might have noticed a few things missing in that campaign ad, I suspect.

Like no mention of affordability. Or bringing down the high price of gas. Or lowering the price of consumer goods. Or ending his war in Iran. Or lowering tariffs. Or cuttback back on the violence in ICE immigration round-ups. All things that voters are saying are their most important issues for the Mid-Terms.

Oh, and something else that's missing in that campaign ad.

The name of the the local candidate who is running for election in the district or state that the Trump Trump Trump video will be running in.

In fairness, what it does have are reminders that Trump got us into war and hasn't figured a way out of it.

Other than all that, though, it's great. If you're the Democratic opponent. It wouldn't be surprising if they pay for airtime to get it seen more

It Takes Two

This is a wonderful, rare treat.  It comes from 1966 when Fred Astaire was the week’s host of the variety show The Hollywood Palace.  And Ethel Merman was a guest.  She sings “Some People” from Gypsy, which is wonderful to see – the show had opened seven years earlier.  But the real joy is a duet that the two legends perform – a medley of their songs based on the premise that he sings so quietly, and she…well, is quite the opposite.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hIzCdNkDgj0

Poly Want a Wager

Today we're taking a brief Point of Personal Privilege to get a bugaboo off my chest. It's about the two big "prediction" app services, Polymarket and Kalshi. What gets me shaking my head each time I hear them referenced that they're actually called "prediction markets."

Prediction markets?? They're gambling apps. Not even sort of, kind of, a little bit like gambling. They're gambling. Predicting is pretty much like what almost all gambling is. Putting money down on what you think will happen. "The San Francisco 49ers are going to win by four points, trust me" is a prediction. "Here's my five dollars on it" is a wager.

For years, you'd go into any sports book in Las Vegas, and you bet on almost anything about the mass of games being played and shown on the huge board. Not just who would win, but by how much. The casinos never said, "Okay, pal, get your prediction down." You made your bet. You'd go to the blackjack table and bet chips that your hand would beat the dealer. The people standing behind you were predicting if you'd win or lose. You were gambling

That later grew to the point where people were betting on the outcomes of individual players, not just the game results themselves. He's going to get three hits. He'll catch eight passes. She'll make six free throws. And then, it got to specific plays. He's going to strikeout here. She's going to make this putt. People weren't making predictions -- they were putting money down and making bets. They were gambling what would happen.

Exactly like the people putting money down when using Polymarket and Kalshi. They're gambling what will happen. Not just trying to predict it. That's the whole point of the money!

And it's not like you can only place gambling bets on sports or cards or roulette in casinos. Here's this from an article in the Las Vegas Review-Journal --

"Nevada regulators recently overturned the rules restricting wagering on non sporting events, paving the way for sports books to begin taking bets on things such as who will win the Oscar for best picture or who will be the next 'American Idol winner." Don't get fooled by the "recently." It's not like this is a new concept, with Vegas casinos following the lead of the "prediction" services. That article was written 15 years ago, in February 9, 2011.

Yes, I know this isn't a huge deal. And I'm not against people gambling. I just like people being honest about what they're doing and selling. And not being coy and cutesy. Calling these app services a "prediction market" strikes me as being just on the good side of flim-flam with perhaps a wink (perhaps), a way to make people feel they're not doing something they're against or make them feel they're being noble -- not gambling, but..."I'm predicting!" It's sort of like they're Nostradamus. Or Jules Verne. Or the Oracle of Delphi. Cool. It sounds so much better than "I lost $400 betting that Pete Hegseth would say the phrase "real men" three times in is his speech today."

And perhaps it's a way to get around gambling laws and regulations. I don't know.

And whether these "predicting" services are inappropriately pushing the directions of actions in society as people trying to influence their bets or not, I don't know that either. And it's not my point here.

The only thing I do know for sure is that it's not "predicting." It's putting money down to gamble and hopefully win more of it back. And that's fine. But that's what it is. And if people enjoy doing it, they should be willing to call it what it actually is, and not paint a false sheen on it to try and make it look like something it's not.

And now, we close with some musical entertainment, Kenny Rogers and his classic, "The Predicter."

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7hx4gdlfamo