Poly Want a Wager
- 4 days ago
- 3 min read
Today we're taking a brief Point of Personal Privilege to get a bugaboo off my chest. It's about the two big "prediction" app services, Polymarket and Kalshi. What gets me shaking my head each time I hear them referenced that they're actually called "prediction markets."
Prediction markets?? They're gambling apps. Not even sort of, kind of, a little bit like gambling. They're gambling. Predicting is pretty much like what almost all gambling is. Putting money down on what you think will happen. "The San Francisco 49ers are going to win by four points, trust me" is a prediction. "Here's my five dollars on it" is a wager.
For years, you'd go into any sports book in Las Vegas, and you bet on almost anything about the mass of games being played and shown on the huge board. Not just who would win, but by how much. The casinos never said, "Okay, pal, get your prediction down." You made your bet. You'd go to the blackjack table and bet chips that your hand would beat the dealer. The people standing behind you were predicting if you'd win or lose. You were gambling
That later grew to the point where people were betting on the outcomes of individual players, not just the game results themselves. He's going to get three hits. He'll catch eight passes. She'll make six free throws. And then, it got to specific plays. He's going to strikeout here. She's going to make this putt. People weren't making predictions -- they were putting money down and making bets. They were gambling what would happen.
Exactly like the people putting money down when using Polymarket and Kalshi. They're gambling what will happen. Not just trying to predict it. That's the whole point of the money!
And it's not like you can only place gambling bets on sports or cards or roulette in casinos. Here's this from an article in the Las Vegas Review-Journal --
"Nevada regulators recently overturned the rules restricting wagering on non sporting events, paving the way for sports books to begin taking bets on things such as who will win the Oscar for best picture or who will be the next 'American Idol winner." Don't get fooled by the "recently." It's not like this is a new concept, with Vegas casinos following the lead of the "prediction" services. That article was written 15 years ago, in February 9, 2011.
Yes, I know this isn't a huge deal. And I'm not against people gambling. I just like people being honest about what they're doing and selling. And not being coy and cutesy. Calling these app services a "prediction market" strikes me as being just on the good side of flim-flam with perhaps a wink (perhaps), a way to make people feel they're not doing something they're against or make them feel they're being noble -- not gambling, but..."I'm predicting!" It's sort of like they're Nostradamus. Or Jules Verne. Or the Oracle of Delphi. Cool. It sounds so much better than "I lost $400 betting that Pete Hegseth would say the phrase "real men" three times in is his speech today."
And perhaps it's a way to get around gambling laws and regulations. I don't know.
And whether these "predicting" services are inappropriately pushing the directions of actions in society as people trying to influence their bets or not, I don't know that either. And it's not my point here.
The only thing I do know for sure is that it's not "predicting." It's putting money down to gamble and hopefully win more of it back. And that's fine. But that's what it is. And if people enjoy doing it, they should be willing to call it what it actually is, and not paint a false sheen on it to try and make it look like something it's not.
And now, we close with some musical entertainment, Kenny Rogers and his classic, "The Predicter."
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