The Unkindest Cut

The other day, I noted that news stories these days are so terrible for the Trump administration that after just reading the headline, pretty much no further comment is necessary. And they're pouring out almost daily, like an uncontrollable oil gusher. Indeed, on Tuesday there was yet another one of those. The headline virtually says it all -- "Trump administration to cut 760,000 from ACA enrollment."

I think we could leave things right there and move on, since you couldn't miss how bad the story is even if you were the most diehard Trump supporter who's adored him spiritually ever since he bought a full-page ad in the New York Times calling for the death penalty for the later-exonerated "Central Park Five." But there's two important things to the story that actually makes it worse.

For one, there's the "reason" the administration says it's going to cut healthcare for three-quarters of a million Americans. As ace vigilante "JD Vance" explained, it's because of charges of fraud being committed by those being cut. Now, however this may sound on the surface if you're not paying much attention, this is terrible for, not just one, but two reasons.

The first is that by trying to claim "JD Vance" and the administration are on a red-hot crusade against supposed fraud to excavate it out from every nook-and-cranny of the government misses what should be an unmissable point: that Trump, the immediate boss of "JD Vance," the very leader of the MAGOP, has literally been found guilty of fraud! It was for misrepresenting his personal wealth in order to deceive banks and insurance companies to get favorable financial terms. So, if "JD Vance" or anyone in the administration truly wants to get rid of fraud in the government, the Oval Office would be a great place to start.

And the second reason that makes "fraud" explanation worse is the explanation given for what they say "fraud" was. I hope you're sitting down for this. Because the fraud, they say, is that all these people signed up for the ACA...but never filed a claim! Yes, really. Honest. It's hard to grasp their thinking. After all, it's a pretty basic concept that you don't try to get health insurance -- or any insurance -- when you're sick or have a broken refrigerator. (Good lord, if that's how you operated, you would never qualify for insurance. What insurer, even the most stupid ones, would ever sign you up???!) You get insurance when you're healthy and everything is working fine -- in hopes that you never need it, but if you do, you're ready. Indeed, a great many young people, all in excellent health, signed up for the ACA, and probably didn't intend to ever put in a claim for 30 years. Yet, there was the Trump administration calling out "fraud!" that people signed up for ACA health insurance and never used it! Paying for something they never took advantage of. Essentially giving the government free money. Who were they committing "fraud" against?? Themselves???

Okay, that's monumentally stupid enough to make this story about cutting healthcare for 760,000 Americans worse than even the blatantly idiotic headline. But there's that one more important thing to add.

It's that the crackerjack Trump administration did this just weeks before the Mid-Term election!!! I...I just can't even fathom why they would do such a thing. A thing so crude that, by comparison, it makes "petty" seem noble. Because they thought it made them look macho tough in their supposed battle against fraud (that ignores their boss)? If so, they miss the unmissable point that what it makes them look like is the clichéd, shady landlord who skulks around and then throws out an old lady onto the street, wandering around lost in the middle of a cold, winter blizzard, because he can get five dollars more in rent from his cousin. Right before he has to meet with the Rental Board to renew his license.

How utterly tone deaf, loathsome and idiotic can you get?? But it's even worse than that -- because the story has allowed some journalists to point out the largely-unreported fact that after the election, 1.2 million Americans will be losing their premium tax credits in 2027. This is due to a provision in Trump's "Big Beautiful Bill" (hey, remember that?!) which was intentionally written not to take effect until after the Mid-Terms, so that it could go unnoticed. Worse (and yes, it actually can get worse), as a whimsical side note, 15 million Americans are projected to lose their ACA health insurance by 2034. Which is now part of the story, too. So, yeah, cool, bring up cuts to the ACA right before the Mid-Terms. Brilliant thinking.

And we didn't even get to reminders in the news that while cutting health care for 760,000 Americans (at a minimum), Trump still hasn't introduced the "big, beautiful health care bill" he promised. And promised. And promised. Initially 10 years ago.

But then, this is the brilliant thinking that has got us regular news stories now which are so terrible that the headlines alone are horrible enough without any comment.

But when you add the comment...you realize that that's what comes when you have someone in charge with dementia, which is degenerative. Surrounded by unqualified incompetents who are there only to say "yes" and who can't help him. Enabled by MAGOPs in Congress.

Which is what brings about a 32% approval -- and dropping. And a Blue Tsunami.

Shakespeare had it right. "The most unkindest cut of all." Julius Caesar. Act 3, Scene 2.

But then, Democrats come not to praise the MAGOP, but to bury them.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZnzxputIr-U

European Reacts

Okay, so after three years or so of videos about how much they absolutely love America, the Portuguese couple André and Sara actually made it to the U.S. for a vacation in November!  This first video (with more to follow) is only 10 minutes, and provides a brief montage of their full trip, along with their first day in New York City – getting pizza, street food and very excitedly going to CVS to get Reese’s peanut butter cups and water.  They’re in heaven.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y-53RyUiPvM

How Low Can You Go?

We begin with a disclaimer: the American Research Group only has a “C” rating on Nate Silver’s well-regard site 538.com. So, it's fair to say that it's not one of the high-end pollsters.

That said, the American Research Group released its latest new poll yesterday and has Trump’s approval rating at 29%!

It’s an outlier and likely too low to be taken as accurate.  But, and this is the important part, it’s not that low.  After all, the Reuters/Ipsos poll the day before (which has a B rating) had Trump at 32%.  As does the UMass Amherst poll (with a B/C rating). So, it’s possible that the other polls which have him in the 33-38% range are slightly higher because their polls aren’t as current. Or, of course, because they're more accurate.

The reality is that, with margin of error, his approval is likely 33-34%.  With margin of error, the bottom is probably too low by 2-3 points, and the top  is probably high by 2-3 points.

Though even that isn't a fully accurate guess. That's because Trump's approval has been regularly dropping over the past couple of months, so a poll from even as recently as three weeks ago -- when his numbers were higher -- might not have as much credibility as one taken three days ago. And at the rate Trump is melting down, three days ago might not be as accurate as yesterday.

Nonetheless, for all the uncertainties, there are three important things about this new American Research Group poll are – 1) their margin-of-error is three points, but even being incredibly conservative if it's off by as much as five points, it confirms how low Trump’s approval is, 2) the pattern of a poll over time is what's important for any single poll, and ARG had Trump at 36% in February and it's steadily gone down (never once up) since then, and 3) the story of this 29% is getting reported that one poll has his approval at 29%, and that has to terrify the already terrified MAGOP candidates -- who are cutting photos of themselves with Trump from their websites, now saying the war in Iran has to end (after voting regularly to let it continue), avoiding being with "JD Vance" when he comes to campaign in their states and more.

So, whether Trump's approval is, in fact, 29% points today -- who knows? But given how he's been dropping weekly, if not daily, doing crazier things by the day (like yesterday, admitting to a war crime before the entire U.N. General Assembly). And has no one around him to help, only unqualified incompetents. And has dementia, which is degenerative. Getting to 29% in other polls may just be a matter of time.