How Low Can You Go?

We begin with a disclaimer: the American Research Group only has a “C” rating on Nate Silver’s well-regard site 538.com. So, it's fair to say that it's not one of the high-end pollsters.

That said, the American Research Group released its latest new poll yesterday and has Trump’s approval rating at 29%!

It’s an outlier and likely too low to be taken as accurate.  But, and this is the important part, it’s not that low.  After all, the Reuters/Ipsos poll the day before (which has a B rating) had Trump at 32%.  As does the UMass Amherst poll (with a B/C rating). So, it’s possible that the other polls which have him in the 33-38% range are slightly higher because their polls aren’t as current. Or, of course, because they're more accurate.

The reality is that, with margin of error, his approval is likely 33-34%.  With margin of error, the bottom is probably too low by 2-3 points, and the top  is probably high by 2-3 points.

Though even that isn't a fully accurate guess. That's because Trump's approval has been regularly dropping over the past couple of months, so a poll from even as recently as three weeks ago -- when his numbers were higher -- might not have as much credibility as one taken three days ago. And at the rate Trump is melting down, three days ago might not be as accurate as yesterday.

Nonetheless, for all the uncertainties, there are three important things about this new American Research Group poll are – 1) their margin-of-error is three points, but even being incredibly conservative if it's off by as much as five points, it confirms how low Trump’s approval is, 2) the pattern of a poll over time is what's important for any single poll, and ARG had Trump at 36% in February and it's steadily gone down (never once up) since then, and 3) the story of this 29% is getting reported that one poll has his approval at 29%, and that has to terrify the already terrified MAGOP candidates -- who are cutting photos of themselves with Trump from their websites, now saying the war in Iran has to end (after voting regularly to let it continue), avoiding being with "JD Vance" when he comes to campaign in their states and more.

So, whether Trump's approval is, in fact, 29% points today -- who knows? But given how he's been dropping weekly, if not daily, doing crazier things by the day (like yesterday, admitting to a war crime before the entire U.N. General Assembly). And has no one around him to help, only unqualified incompetents. And has dementia, which is degenerative. Getting to 29% in other polls may just be a matter of time.