What's Next?

 The election is over.  Let the election begin!

Yes, amidst all the analysis about what happened in the Mid-Terms, pundits have begun talking about what the results mean for candidates in 2028.  Will changed constituencies stay Blue ? Can MAGOPs win back seats they lost?  Who will the parties’ nominees be for president?  Can Democrats address the interests of today's voters? And much more.

A few things first:

It’s important to recognize at the beginning how wide the breadth of the results were.  How in Texas, for just one example, it wasn’t only James Talarico and Gina Hinojosa winning, but Democrats sweeping all eight statewide elections, winning all four races for state Supreme Court (the first time any Democrat has won a single Supreme Court seat), flipping the statehouse, and taking control of the Board of Education.  But beyond Texas, flipping six governor races and now being in control of 30 governorships.  Gaining at least 43 seats in the House and at a minimum now holding an advantage of 259-176.  Likely gaining nine seats in the Senate and taking a 56-44 margin.  And much more.

To put it in perspective, in the 2024 presidential election, Trump won by 2.2 million votes and a margin of 1.5 points.  In the popular vote in the Mid-Terms, Democrats won by 15 million votes, and a margin of 13 points.

It wasn’t just a Blue Wave, let alone a Blue Tsunami.  That doesn’t do it justice.  It was a generational Blue tectonic shift.  It changed the landscape. 

Consider: If this almost fully Blue Texas holds in 2028, that’s 40 Electoral votes.  And that doesn’t just make it terrifying for the MAGOP and hellish for them to even consider winning the presidency, but at the bare minimum it forces them to spend a half-billion dollars in a state they were sure was in their hip pocket and now won’t have it to spend elsewhere.

But – that’s still an “if.”  It’s a good, reasonable, strong “if” – but still “if.”  So, what does lie ahead?  What is next?

I think anyone who suggests they know this early is being whimsical.  And making a prediction now is a fools errand. My Mid-Term prediction for the House was a year ahead, not two years.  And we knew who all the people running were.  That’s not this.  So, the best we can do is start only with things we actually know -- right now.  And the starting point is:

We know Trump has dementia, which is degenerative.  We know this, not because I think it’s the case, but because expert psychologist have been describing his symptoms for almost eight years, writing it in books, publishing articles and doing interviews.  And we know in the just past two weeks alone, Trump made speeches often ignoring the issues of the election but instead focused on the Reflecting Pool and mythical “vandals,” his ballroom that destroyed the White House, his proposed arch as a supposed defense facility, and men’s asses.  So, we know that as many cognitive issues as Trump has today, it will get worse and more erratic throughout the next two years.

We know that Americans have said that their top issues of concern are corruption, Trump’s war in Iran, high gas prices, affordability and the brutal violence of immigration tactics.

We know that when MAGOP candidates run in 2028, whether for re-election or as challengers, they will either have to defend Trump’s agenda of all these issues (for which they got pummeled by voters), or criticize Trump's handling of the agenda and risk angering and losing the party base.

We know that because Trump has dementia, which is degenerative and will get worse and more erratic, it's not just that he will be in no shape to fix things, but will make conditions worse.

We know (because they helped create many of these problems) that Trump is surrounded by unqualified incompetents who are aware that they only have their jobs because Trump only brings in those who will give him total loyalty, and so they will enable him in everything, without the skills (or in many cases, interest or incentive) to fix these problems.

We know that Trump hired Stephen Miller as his new Chief of Staff, the white nationalist who is one of the architects of Trump’s agenda which just got pummeled in the Mid-Terms.

We know in Senate races Democrats not only flipped Red Texas, but also Red Ohio, Deep Red Iowa, Deep Red Kansas, Deep Red South Carolina, and appears will flip Deep Red Mississippi.  This doesn’t mean these states will stay Democratic, but it does mean that we know the MAGOP must now spend money and resources in all these states, resources that won’t go to battleground states.

We know that Trump is now a Lame Duck, so while he still has power and remains dangerous, like a caged bear, his power is lessened.

We know that, since Trump is a Lame Duck, others throughout the MAGOP will now be jockeying to become the next party leader, requiring they put their own interests above Trump's.

We know that Trump will not be on the ballot in 2028, and know that much of his base doesn’t care about politics but only worships Trump, so without him running, the party risks them not showing up to vote.

We know that since Democrats are now in control of the Senate and House, they will be in charge of committees; hold investigations into corruption, illegal actions, and incompetence; have subpoena power, and have the authority to block judicial nominations and political nominations, and oversee any Supreme Court nominations should one open.

We know that if Democrats pass bills to fix the issues Americans most care about, but Trump vetoes them – Trump and the MAGOP will get blamed for him vetoing the solutions that would make the public's life better.

We know that, instead of self-reflection and taking responsibility for why they lost so devastatingly in the Mid-Terms and what they need to work on to fix, many MAGOP officials on social media are instead blaming Americans for supposedly being deceived by Democrats and voting against corruption, Trump's war in Iran, high gas prices, affordability, and violent immigration policies.  And blaming Congress for not passing the “Save America” (sic) Act -- which actually would have made it more difficult for millions of Americans to vote. And we know Sen. Josh Hawley wrote that his solution to address the Mid-Term loss was for Christians to seek the Lord, and he would host a fasting and prayer breakfast (apparently not considering the possibility, if not the likelihood that the results might have been exactly what the Lord wanted). And we know that Trump (after telling his rallies to pretend he was on the ballot) has said if he was on the ballot that his party would have won in a landslide -- and know that yesterday, after telling the New York Times on Election Night he would accept the results, Trump posted on social media a long rant that begins: "“Does anybody really believe that this ‘Election’ was honest?" and blamed "the machines."

And we know that if any of the issues concerning Americans do improve, at best for MAGOPs is that Trump will only get partial credit because the one big difference between “then and now” is Democrats are in charge of Congress – and at worst, Democrats will get full credit because they alone pushed the issues.

We know all this.  Either as shared experience, hard facts, cold numbers, or on the record.  It’s out in the open.  No predictions or guesses are involved.

What will happen as a result of all these things that “we know” – I have no idea.  It’s absolutely possible that Democrats could screw things up for themselves.  It is also possible that they know why they got such a massive, earth-shattering Mid-Term victory – that it’s not wild popularity for the party, but outrage at the MAGOP agenda…and hope a change will be better -- and won’t screw things up.  It is possible, as well, that someone with dementia which is degenerative is far more likely than anyone else to be who screws things up.

So, I don’t know what will happen.  I only know these things that exist on the table.

All of that, and one other thing –

I know that if I was a MAGOP I would be terrified for the 2028 general election.