The Other Side of Conundrums

​After writing yesterday about the “Rock and a Hard Place” conundrum that Republicans are in – either nominating Trump, which ties all GOP candidates to him and his indictments, or someone else getting nominated, in which case in his fury he’d burn the party down – I received the following response on Facebook from Bill Guthman, who I’ve known since Camp Nebagamon days.  He wrote:

“You should also write about the Democratic conundrum. So many are concerned about Biden's cognitive abilities & the effect of Hunter's legal woes going forward, plus the Kennedy factor, as we all as Cornel West. and if so many economists are correct, we will be a some sort of recession by the end of this year or 2024. I saw an article speculating Biden will hand pick a Dem nominee at the convention. This will not be a typical Presidential election cycle.”

The problem was, I didn’t agree with any of this, so it wasn’t really something I'd write about.  It's all "if's" – and those exist for any political campaign.  Besides which, the conundrum for Republicans that I wrote about in my article is totally different – it wasn’t an “if any of these things happen” scenario, but rather a "one of these two things WILL happen" situation.  I then went through the list, one-by-one, explaining what I meant for each.

To be clear, Bill’s initial response was not a slam at Democrats, but a concern about what could happen during the campaign.  In fact, he replied back – “I theoretically agree with your comments,” but the issues “will all be talking points by Republicans and could affect the independent vote…”

It was at that point, after responding to the whole list, in order to explain why I wouldn’t be writing an article about it…that I realized that I’d just written most of an article.  Not one about “conundrums” that the Democratic Party faced, but about issues that Republicans will be bringing up.  So, I figured it was very good Guthman prompting and worth expanding in much more detail.

Which brings us then to today.  And much more detail.

For starters, without question, yes, Republicans will attack Democrats on some of these issues and others.  But that's what campaigns are.  That's separate from them being "conundrums" that significantly impact the entire party and all Democratic candidates.

Further, I believe that some of the issues Republicans try to raise will actually hurt Republicans – either by being issues that the public isn’t against (like banning abortion, banning books and saying that Blacks got benefits during slavery), or being issues that show “If this is all you’ve got, then clearly you’ve got nothing for helping Americans” – like Barbie endangering national security, and outrage over Mr. Potato Head and female M&Ms.

I also believe than any analyst who suggests President Biden will be hand-picking a nominee is someone you can stop following as an analyst.  Any commentary about that likely comes from Republican Governor John Sununu who said this on CNN -- where he also said, by the way, that Trump would not be the GOP nominee.  (The host was incredulous by the claims, which Sununu insisted he truly believed.)  That aside, it's ludicrous to even just think that Joe Biden could simply hand-pick the nominee, and that all other Democrats and voting public would shrug and say, “Hey, okay.  Cool.”  Furthermore, the suggestion ignores why Joe Biden would actually run a primary campaign and fundraise $75 million so far – but…not run in the General Election!

There is, though, definitely a question about President Biden’s age, which is totally fair with him being 80 years old.  But it’s a question out of context, because on stage against Trump, who is 77, that question becomes moot.  Also, age is a separate matter from cognitive abilities.  And I’m unaware of "many" Democrats concerned with Joe Biden's cognitive abilities.  Rather, the "cognitive" issue has long been a Republican-made one, something they cry out whenever Joe Biden stutters, which he’s done his entire life.  Far more of a cognitive issue is Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell freezing for 20 seconds, which made President Biden seem vibrant by comparison.  In fact, it could be argued that Trump’s cognitive issues as he melts down and rants are far more on display and problematic.

Hunter Biden is definitely a major issue for Republicans to try to slam President Biden with.  But I believe “But Hunter Biden!” is a far-bigger problem for Republicans.  He's a private citizen, been investigated for five years, and there have been zero improprieties found tied to his father. In fact, just yesterday, the House GOP heavily promoted a Star Witness who is a business associate of Hunter Biden – but in sworn testimony he said Joe Biden never even discussed business with his son.  Add to this House Republican’s previous Star Witness…who turned out to be a foreign agent for China under indictment who has gone missing! Lest we forget, Special Counsel John Durham investigated Biden and Obama for four years – and found absolutely nothing. If House Republicans try to run on "But Hunter Biden!" rather than passing bills to actually help people’s lives, considering they’re in control of the House, they risk hurting themselves badly.

Third-party runs are a concern to Democrats.  But I think third-party candidate risk taking more votes from Trump whose fascism, indictments and rape verdict likely scare moderate Republicans and Independents far more than President Biden puts off Democrats.  In fact, a poll of a fantasy third-party dream ticket for “No Labels” of Sen. Joe Manchin (a Democrat) and Republican Jon Huntsman against Biden and Trump showed that Trump lost the most votes.  

While some might think Robert Kennedy Jr. could be a concern, he’s really not even a factor, since he's only running in Democratic primaries, and will be pummeled.  As a lifelong Democrat with his family name, I think it's unlikely he'd run as a third party -- but if he did, a) he'd have to qualify to get on ballots, and b) given how heavily Republicans are pushing him, he might draw more Republican votes than Democratic.

On the other hand, Cornel West is an issue.  But since he’s running on the People's Party ticket, there’s no certainty he'll qualify to get on many ballots.  And it’s not expected he’ll get many votes.  The only question is if in tight races he'll draw enough votes to be a problem.  He could, but it's more likely that he won’t since (especially in close Swing States) most Democrats seem to recognize that if Joe Biden doesn’t win, Trump will.  Further, Cornel West is not trying to come across like an alternate choice for Democrats in the middle, the way Jill Stein flim-flammed in 2016, but very openly a far-left one.  And there will likely be third-party candidates who appeal to Republican voters unwilling to vote for Trump, and balance whatever West does.

Which brings things, as all presidential elections do, to The Economy.  One of my favorite jokes are about the definition of “Economist.”  One is that an economist is someone who has predicted three of the past two recessions.  Jokes aside, yes, The Economy is critical, and what economists say is important.  But many economists predicted a recession a year ago, and it hasn't happened. In fact, most economists are saying the U.S. economy is not only strong, but the strongest in the world.  Could there be a recession?  Absolutely.  But I have seen close to zero economists predicting a recession, just that it's possible.  Economic changes are always possible.  But also important to remember is that inflation was very bad during the 2022 Mid-terms – at 8.8%, compared to 3% now, three times higher – and it wasn’t what the public voted on, as Democrats did extremely well.

And in the end, ultimately all the above only fall into the category of "issues to be aware about", which every campaign has to deal with.  Some are important, though a few not important at all.  But most importantly, what they most emphatically are not are "conundrums," like the Rock and a Hard Place reality Republicans are facing as an entire party across the country in every race.

The hurdles that Joe Biden’s campaign has, however, don’t come close to being the Republican “Rock and a Hard Place” conundrum”  that they either nominate Trump who will have been indicted four times and found liable for rape, tying all Republican candidates to supporting him – or the GOP nominates someone other than Trump, and he’ll burn the party down.

And this doesn’t even touch on the very real important hurdles that a Republican presidential campaign faces.  Like, for starters, banning abortion, banning books, supporting guns, ignoring Climate Change, banning the teaching of Black history and insisting that Black people benefitted from slavery. 

Though Republicans do have one big foreign policy issue:  outrage over Barbie endangering national security.