Stating the (Apparently Not So) Obvious

Several months ago, as Trump's war against Iran was in the midst of one of its many roadblock and with no exit strategy, a thought occurred to me. It didn't seem like all that special a thought, pretty basic, in fact, but that's all the more reason why I couldn't figure out why it wasn't being discussed anywhere.

At the time, Trump and Pete Hegseth were swaggering around about the great success the United States was having in Iran, despite a lack of evidence that Trump's was anywhere near ending. We were dropping bombs on the country, a massive number of bombs -- so many that now we're hearing about the U.S. stockpile getting depleted -- but it wasn't having much of an impact of getting Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz or negotiate a peace treaty. So, I figured that pretty much anything else would be worth trying. Especially things that have been effective in foreign relations against adversaries. That's why I wondered, well, what about trying economic sanctions? They seemed to have been effective in the previous nuclear treaty we had with Iran before Trump tore it up. Though that was before he attacked them, when it seemed he might want to negotiate a new treaty. But now that we are actually at war with Iran, it just seemed like one might use any "weapon" in your arsenal to attack your enemy. I'm not a military strategist, mind you, but that always seemed to be how wars worked, as far as I could tell.

But nothing. Not a word about sanctions. I couldn't figure it out. What was the downside? That Iran would be unhappy if we put sanctions on them? I mean, you have to figure they didn't appreciate being bombed every day, and that didn't stop us from doing it. So, what was I missing? After all, it seemed pretty basic. So basic that I was sure others had thought about it. People a whole lot smarter than me. Professional analysts. Government officials. Military officers. That guy down the block.

Not that sanctions would end the war, but they might at least put some pressure on Iran that wasn't there. I thought that that was one of the ways sanctions worked. Months passed, though, and bombs kept dropping, the Strait of Hormuz remained closed, and no end remained in sight. Trump bragged about his cool "Memo of Understanding" that went nowhere, despite him proclaiming, "Let the oil flow." And while I know that Trump had even offered almost $400 billion to Iran, which is the opposite of sanctions, that offer wasn't accepted, so maybe sanctions would help force the issue. Yet still, no mention of them.

And then yesterday, I saw this headline from an article by Axios.

"U.S. Officials believe sanctions could hurt Iran more than bombs."

I had to do a double-take to make sure I read it right. And I had. Administration officials were actually, really talking about how sanctions could have a positive impact on the war effort.

"The Iranians want to stop being bombed, and they want money," a senior administration official told Axios. "But that's almost in reverse order. They really want the money first."

The official continued: "They're in danger of runs on banks. There are gasoline shortages in this giant oil-rich country. "They're more scared of Treasury than the War Department."

Well, there you go! I wasn't alone in thinking the obvious. If an administration official was thinking about this, then it was as basic, obvious an idea as I'd thought!

Except...I realized that throughout the article, the administration official was always referred to as the "administration official." No name. Which means it was off-the-record. Which means he or she didn't want to be identified. Which means the idea was perhaps considered "radical" by the rest of the Trump circle. Perhaps not. Or perhaps it's something being discussed, but needs more time to gather support in the administration before something is done with sanctions.

Though...why?? More time? We're five months into Trump's war. I would have thought that sanctions would be something you'd consider on Day 1. But then, in fairness, I would have thought Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz would be something you'd consider before Day 1. So, what do I know? Which it seems is the same question one could ask about the Trump administration.