The Crystal Ball

My dad was a physician for around a half-century.  Among the various items on the desk in his office, he had a round, decorative piece of glass, about the size of a soft ball.  He said the reason was because patients would regularly ask some unknowable question about what would happen with whatever condition they were there to see him about.  And occasionally, he would point to the glass piece and say, "Y'know, I have had this crystal ball for a long time.  And it hasn't worked once."

So, today's one of those time for the crystal ball.  Perhaps with the same results.​​But sometimes you just decide you have to go out on a limb.  There’s no reason for me to make a prediction for a presidential election so close that professional pollsters can’t even say with any certainty what will happen.  But since I yammer with my thoughts every day, I just figure that I might as well keep going.

And if I had to make a prediction and say it publicly, it would be – I don’t know.  I don’t have a clue and neither does anyone know.  People have guesses, but that’s all they are.  And that’s all I have.  And anyone who says otherwise is just postering to blow smoke.  But…but…oh, what the heck, let’s just dive off the deep end and open myself up to the possibility of ridicule.

Still though (and this is how uncertain it all is – being three paragraphs in and continuing to give disclaimers!), I do feel it’s important to reiterate as much as possible that anything I say is utterly meaningless, since I’m hardly an expert and don’t have any actual data at my fingertips.  But listening relentlessly to experts and putting perspective on why they say what they say does give me some ideas.  However, they’re still meaningless ideas of a guess, colored by hope.  BUT – that said: 

Like everyone, it’s hard not to think the election will be very close.  But I don’t think it will be as “razor-thin” close as some say.  I think Kamala Harris will win, and I say that not just out of hope and a “sense” of direction, but for very specific reasons.

A quick digression:  this is only about the presidential election.  Without going into details, I have long felt that Democrats will retake control of the House, though I don't have a clue about the Senate.  However, I think that's a tougher climb for Democrats.  Though given the past disastrous week in MAGOP World, that could impact things.

But on to the reasons for the presidential race that I think benefit VP Harris.

In any close election, what matters at the very end is not the polls, but the “ground game,” getting out the vote.  And convincing undecided voters, and convincing those wavering who could still change their vote.  And that’s where – I think -- the Harris campaign has a big advantage over Trump. 

First, they have an excellent team in place to get out the vote.  It’s very experienced, and experience in the ground game matters significantly.  As experts in the field explain, you have to get volunteers who are motivated for your candidate, who have policy issues or even just one issue that matters deeply to them.  And you need to train them over time (maybe even get them practice in an earlier election) in how to go door-to-door, teach them how to talk to undecided voters, even have practice sessions.  On the other hand, the Trump team not only gave away control of their ground game, but farmed it out to Elon Musk and Charlie Kirk to put together their own, separate “get out the vote” organization, something neither have ever done.  Moreover, rather than getting motivated volunteers, they’re paying people, everyday workers who will just be doing a job.  Some may be motivated, but for some, as paid day laborers, if you’re given a set number of flyers to pass out, that may be all they do, not attempt any personal contact, and maybe not even pass out all the flyers you have, but if you’re tired, dump the rest left over.

[UPDATE:  After writing this article, I came across this story in Wired from Wednesday that not only supports the above, but expands it.]

​Second, the core part of “get out the vote” is motivation.  Who this election is the most motivated to vote?  Having good polls numbers is great, but will they actually vote?  How motivated are they to make the effort?  The Republican base is very motivated – but the rest of the Republican isn’t.  The rest support Trump, but many, maybe even most aren’t thrilled with him as a candidate and support him because…well, he’s a Republican, and they don’t like Democrats, so they certainly won’t vote them, and so aren’t “motivated” to vote.  In fact, will they all vote?  I don’t know, but I wouldn’t even begin to count on it – after all, that’s the whole reason to have a ground game and a “get out the vote” effort at all, to make sure such people do vote.  Because these people do not always vote.  On the other hand, my sense is that almost all Democrats are very motivated, most viscerally hate Trump, see him as a danger to democracy, see him as a danger with his dementia, see him as a danger being in bad health and having “JD Vance” as his running mate, and have been anxiously waiting to vote against him, even if it meant crawling over glass.  And they’re not even close to the most-motivated voters for Kamala Harris.  Because most of all, the most motivated group of all this year, far and away, are women – Democrats, Independents and even some Republicans – aggressively anxious to vote.  We’ve seen that in actual special elections, where abortion protection has won in Red states where it should haven’t had a chance.  So, I think “motivated voters” favor Harris.  And “motivation” isn’t necessarily measured in the polls.  That’s just “Who do you plan to vote for?”  Not -- who will you stand in line for six hours to vote for?  Not -- who will you vote for if you believe down to your fingertips that your life, the life of your children, and democracy depends on it?

And third, “get out the vote” always comes down to undecided voters and the slightly-flexible who make up their mind at the very end.  And the last week for Trump has been disastrous.  Dancing at a rally for 39 minutes, talking about Arnold Palmer’s genitalia for 10 minutes, having two generals from his own White House staff call him a fascist and say he praised Hitler, him calling his opponents “the enemy from within” and saying he’ll use the military on Americans (!), and the disastrous rally at Madison Square Garden with a comedian calling Puerto Rico an “island of garbage” and not only did no not Trump condemn him, nor did any speakers at the event – but Trump tripled down, pulling a stunt riding in a garbage trunk and wearing a garbage workers vest all day.  (There are 380,000 Americans of Puerto Rican descent eligible to vote in the critical Swing State of Pennsylvania alone!  Though I don’t have eligible voting numbers for other Swing States, there are nonetheless 130,000 Americans of of Puerto Rican descent in North Carolina.  And 120,000 Puerto Ricans in Georgia.  And 65,000 in Arizona.  And 60,00 in Wisconsin. Keep in mind that many of these states of fairly small populations, and the margins in 2020 for some were only 10-15,000)  But even more, the Madison Square Garden rally was a hate fest overall, with speaker after speaker virulently smearing immigrants, women, Jews, Blacks and Muslims.  And then just yesterday, throw in Trump -- found liable for rape -- telling women he would protect them "whether the women like it or not."  This all has been the Trump campaign closing argument!

The point being:  undecided voters are undecided because they hate the extremes – otherwise they’d be Republican or Democratic.  So, an undecided voter hears all this massive chaos and hate from Trump the past week and sees his cognitive and health failings.  I can’t imagine many of them saying, “Hey, that’s what I’m looking for!!”  In fact, if it was what they’re looing for, they’d be Trump supporters. Meanwhile, whether they agree with all her policies or not, or know what they are because they just don’t pay attention, they none-the-less see a thoughtful, rational Harris.  Same with on the edge Republicans.  Who want to vote, who always vote, who see this last week of Trump.  How big is the number of these voters?  Not huge – but remember, the point is that this is a very close election.  Any increase, just 1% is significant.

And just as important to consider, especially for those who do watch confusing polls -- undecided voters are not included in any polls.  Because, of course, they’re undecided. Add only 1% to that, and it makes an unexpected difference.  To a similar degree, it’s tame with motivated votes, since motivation is not measured by the polls.

So…from everything that I’ve read and heard from experts and balanced what they’re saying -- I think it will be close, but think that Kamala Harris will win, and it won’t be as paper-thin close as people expect, for those reasons.  But I’m not an expert.  I could be wrong.  However, unlike most people saying who they think will win – a pure guess, just like mine – I at least just gave a long list of reasons why I believe this.  That doesn’t remotely make it valid.  Just that it has a foundation supporting it. 

There's a great story about President Kennedy that I love.  He was asked by a reporter, "Are you optimistic or pessimistic about how it will work out?  Kennedy answered, "I’m extremely optimistic."  The reporter replied, "Then why don’t you look happier about it?"

To which JFK answered, "Because I’m not sure my optimism is justified."

To be clear, this holds for me, and should as well as for anyone who says they're optimistic about the presidential election this year.  So, though I do feel good about the reasons behind my guess, I don’t feel confident in it.  But I’d feel a whole lot less confident if I was a Republican.

We’ll see…