The Gang Who Couldn't Bomb Straight

I have a lawyer friend who is always telling me about his cases and how he is going to win them all in court because this is what the law is, and his client is absolutely in the right.  And periodically, he morphs into describing a legal case before the Supreme Court, and how he’s argue it and win, because this and this and this is the law.  One day, after yet another one of his monologues on his certainty of winning every legal case, because This is What the Law Is, I politely looked over and said, “You’re aware, right, that there will be a lawyer on the other side explaining in detail what that is not the case.”  To his credit, my friend did reply, “Well…yes.” 

That’s sort of how I look at Trump pretty much every time he takes a big action as if there is only him and not another side who will react to it.  Like, oh, y’know, bombing a country, saying it was a one-off, everything is over, it was a huge success, and “I am your favorite president.”

To be clear, there is a massive different between my friend and Trump, beyond that my friend hates Trump with every fiber of his being.  It’s the acknowledgement and acceptance of the reality of others.  Believing you’re right is fine.  Knowing that others might disagree makes it even better.  And this difference is all the more important when the other side who you don’t recognize as existing is a country of 90 million people and has bombs and a delivery system for them and is developing a nuclear program and has sleeper cells of terrorists.

So, after being bombed by Trump and his “one-off,” and it’s all over now, Iran fired missiles at a U.S. military base in Qatar. Which is sort of near-impossible to not have seen something like that coming.  Fortunately, there were no casualties.

And of course, Trump did add – in a tweet, of course – that although his bombing was a "one-off," he would respond if Iran retaliates. So, now it turns out this may not be an easy "one-off".  Which is sort of near-impossible to not have seen that, too.

Then later, Trump said – sorry, “tweets” – that he got a call from Iran giving him a warning before their attack on the military base.  Which raises two possibilities:  1) that his statement isn’t remotely true, or 2) it is true, but if so it’s the sort of thing a president should keep private to as not to embarrass Iran to its people, forcing them to perhaps make another attack without a warning to save face.

Then Trump said that Israel and Iran have agreed to a ceasefire.  For 12 hours.  Or maybe it’s 24 hours.  One of which may be true – except that neither Israel or Iran have themselves said this.   In fact, the Iranian Foreign Minister put out a statement saying it wasn’t true.  Though later, he released a statement that, well, it didn’t say it was true, but did say military operations had stopped.  Although Israel still hadn’t said anything, which one tends to need for a ceasefire.

After which Trump later said (yes, yes, okay, sorry, “tweeted”) that not only did Israel and Iran agree to a cease-fire…but there was no end date, it was – wait for it – forever!!  This is one of those things that not only is so ludicrous, it’s so ludicrous that it further raises the question about if there’s any cease fire at all, even for that 12-hour limit.  Moreover, even there is some sort of a ceasefire, however long or short it may be, the moment the first attack by either side ever occurs, it will show how idiotic Trump was to make the statement.  Forever??  Forever???????!!  That’s not a “ceasefire,” that’s a peace treaty.  Actually, more than that, that’s an eternal peace treaty, that’s Best Friends Until the End of Time.  “Forever”?  Why on earth even say that?  Unless you’re a sociopathic egomaniac with dementia.  Or someone so deeply insecure you desperately wants to win the Nobel Peace Prize, which isn’t going to happen.

But still, Trump did insist there was a "forever" ceasefire.  And hours later, not long before midnight (Los Angeles time), Israel did acknowledge they had achieved their military aims and had no immediate plans for others, putting Iran on warning not to take any action against them.  Not exactly a ringing proclamation of a ceasefire and as equivocating as Iran without mention of there actually being a ceasefire, which combatants generally try to make incredibly clear, but it too is dancing on the edges, so it's close enough to say that, at least for the moment, there's no shooting.  For the record, the phrase "at least for the moment" should not be taken as meaning "forever."

Meanwhile, a range of stories are now coming out confirming that, no, all of Iran’s nuclear facilities weren’t “completely obliterated,” as Trump insisted, and indeed someone weren’t hit.

And there continue to be contradictory messages from Trump and those around him.  Others insisting this bombing was not about regime change, and Trump tweeting that it was.

And the larger point remains – whatever the result, this all was 100% unnecessary, because we had a nuclear deal with Iran, signed with China, Russia, France and the U.K,, that was very effective and had inspectors on the ground in Iran.  Until Trump ripped up the bill in 2018, allowing Iran to build its nuclear capabilities for seven years.  Which took us here, to Trump bombing Iran and trying to get a nuclear deal, like the one we had with them before he ended it.

Besides which, there is zero evidence that our intelligence services said that there was any imminent threat from Iran.  Meaning Trump either made a decision to bomb Iran based on his deeply fallible “gut” – or he was relying on what he was told by Israel’s Bibi Netanyahu whose government has been claiming Iran was an imminent threat for the past 30 years.

And underneath this all, whatever happens next, however things work out in all its ramifications, we're stuck with Trump surrounding himself with unqualified incompetents like Pete Hegseth, Tulsi Gabbard, Kash Patel Kristi Noem, Stephen Miller, 22-year-old Thomas Fugate a year out of college in charge of terrorist prevention, and all the other Trump sycophants to deal with this totally unnecessary debacle...since we HAD a nuclear deal with Iran that Trump ripped out 7 years ago.

Oh, and just so no one has to look too far into the future to find out what happens literally "next" as they celebrate the success of the mission that "completely obliterated" Iran's nuclear program except for the parts it didn't, including it appears Iran's enriched uranium, and was also entirely unnecessary --

Israel this morning says Iran has broken the ceasefire.

Iran this morning says Israel has broken the ceasefire.

And even Trump -- who pompously announced not only a ceasefire (that no one else acknowledged), but one that would last "forever" -- says that both Israel and Iran have broken the ceasefire.

All of which means the forever ceasefire Trump swaggeringly declared in a tweet didn't even make it to his initial assurance of just 12 hours.  (Or was it 24 hours?  Sorry, it's all much too convoluted.  And disingenuous.  And ignorant)  In fact, though, to be fair, it was really not so much a 12-hour/24-hour/forever/whatever ceasefire than only a pause to reload.

And your reminder that the day Trump unnecessarily bombed Iran, without Congressional authorization, after he had even years earlier ripped up our strong nuclear deal with them -- they vowed  "everlasting consequences." 

Rule #1 of bombing:  there is always the other side.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8L1UngfqojI