Sometimes, Optimism is Actually Justified

​Over time, I’ve written here (and strongly believe based on a range of evidence…) that, yes, things will be hellish for a while – deeply hellish -- but everything damning Trump does doesn’t just hurt the country, but hurts Trump, as well.  Just because Trump does something doesn’t mean it’s supported by most of the public. 

Indeed, polls keep showing that his actions are extremely unpopular.  It is not “what Americans voted for.”  For starters, Trump got 49.8% of the vote, so over half the country didn’t vote for him or any of this.  Further, he only won by 1.5%.  So, he barely squeaked in, it wasn’t remotely close to a mandate – at was barely a victory.  Moreover, though a morose friend keeps replying in agony, “Yes, but, all those people who voted for Trump voted for this, voted for him knowing he was a felon and rapist, voted for him because he would quote Hitler…”  But that’s completely wrong, as I keep telling him –

Some people voted for Trump because they just always vote for the Republican candidate, whatever their policies.  Some voted for Trump because (conversely) they can’t imagine voting for a Democrat.  Some voted for Trump because  they liked he could nominate judges.  Some purely because he said he’d bring prices down on Day One.  Some because he’d different from other politicians and tweets and swears and calls people names.  And very importantly – many likely had absolutely no idea of many of the things he said during the campaign.  They don’t follow the news – they certainly don’t follow the “Main Stream” news – they hate the news because Trump tells them to hate it.  It’s all “fake news.”  So, they don’t know that Trump echoes the words of Hitler, some may not even know he was ever convicted of anything – and those that do don’t think he did any of the things he was charged with, that they were all political trials and don’t believe Trump committed 34 felonies, or raped anyone, or was actually guilty of business fraud.  So, they weren’t voting for that.  Any of that.  Yes, some were, I’m sure.  Some do know who Trump is, but don’t care, they like him and the things he does.  But, it’s just totally wrong to thing that all the people who voted for Trump voted for him knowing all the things he did and is guilty of and specifically support it all.  I would suggest that most don’t.

And as evidence, I just don’t rely on the reality that people support politicians for a great many different reasons  -- but also by looking at polls and actual results in Special Elections.  Trump had 49.8% of Americans vote for him – and his approval in most polls now ranges between 38-42%...just months into his term, only barely past his honeymoon period, when all presidents are at their highest support.  People say they voted to get rid of the “worst of the worst” immigrants, the murderers and drug dealers – and are shocked and horrified to see mothers and children and people never convicted of anything being grabbed off the street and being deported without even a trial.  Trump’s strongest issue has always been immigration – and polls consistently show that far more than half the country doesn’t support him on his top policy.

And even more impactful, we've already had numerous Special Elections.  And in almost every one, the Democratic candidate has not only improved results in Deep Red districts by general 12-20 points from as recently as November, but has occasionally flipped the district.  Now imagine all those Purple districts up in the Mid-Terms.

So, yes, the damage is horrible, but we shouldn’t lose sight of the fact that he’s also hurting himself.  (In fact, and importantly, as I said to my morose friend, as well – look at it this way:  Trump could be doing all these incredibly reprehensible things, and polls could show the public loves and supports them!  But instead, he’s doing these reprehensible things, and his poll numbers are plummeting.  That’s no small thing.)

And more importantly, I think that everything will get worse for him.  After all – price increases from the tariffs haven’t kicked in yet.  Making arrests of farmworkers is going to upend the food industry.  Fighting in the Middle East has already raised oil prices.  We’re learning that, no, Iran’s nuclear facilities were not “completely obliterated.”  So, this bombing not only didn’t accomplish much, other than a short delay – but it was unnecessary because we had a nuclear deal that Trump himself cancelled seven years ago.  Furthermore, it’s one thing to send the National Guard and Marines into Los Angeles – many people dislike “Hollyweird” and “La La Land” – but not only do polls show most people don’t like even that, when this is expanded to sending  troops into Chicago, Philadelphia, New York, Seattle and more…and all Democratic cities…I suspect the reaction will be far worse.  And also, so many of the provisions in the MAGOP budget bill bulldoze core issues that the public actually supports, if it passes, the public not only hates it, but hates it by almost 2-to-1.  (A new Quinnipiac polls shows that just 29% of Americans  support the bill, while 55% are against it.  For those without an abacus, that's outside the margin of error...)  And on top of all that, Trump doesn’t have anyone around him to help solve any of these problems, only unqualified incompetents.  Who?  Pete Hegseth, Pam Bondi, Robert Kennedy Jr., Kristi Noem, Tulsi Gabbard?? And even worse for Trump, his dementia is degenerative.

Obviously, just because I believe this doesn’t mean it is right and will happen.  However, it’s not just whimsy pulled out of thin air, but based on specific reasons and evidence.  And ultimately, I think it’s up to those who disagree with all I say here to show – with contrary reasons and evidence -- why it isn’t correct.  Not just, “Well, I disagree.”  Okay, fair enough – but why?  Explain.  I gave my many reasons, you give me yours.

And finally, there’s this.  It began when I saw some terrible poll reports for Trump, showing his approval negative in 15 states that he won just six months ago.  And I knew that that didn’t exist in a vacuum.  Indeed, there are two huge problems that MAGOP candidates have facing them in the Mid-Term election that they don't seem to grasp, as they keep supporting Trump.

1) In the past 84 years, the party in control of the White House has lost seats in the House (and usually in the Senate, as well) in every off-year election, but just two.  (And those two exceptions come as deeply uncommon, arguably unique situations.  The first was when right before Bill Clinton was about to be impeached, which the public hated, and so he had a massive 65% approval.  And the other Mid-Term exception was when George W. Bush had an even bigger 67% approval after the 9/11attacks.  The add perspective to these very high approvals, in this same past 84 years, they are the only two times when a president’s approval at the Mid-Terms was in the “60%.”  All others were generally in the upper-40 to mid-50%). Trump’s approval is already down to 38-42% right now, just past his honeymoon period.  And the MAGOP have razor-thin majorities in both the House and Sente.

[NOTE:  The reason the Senate results about losing seats in a Mid-Term election are different from the House is because in different years in the Senate, more seats of one party are up for re-election than another.  In the House, all seats are always up for re-election.  Yet even with this, the party that holds the White House still usually loses seats in the Mid-Terms.  And this year, more MAGOP Senate seats are up for re-election than Democratic.)

2) Since Trump first ran for office, his party began to rely on the support of those who don’t usually vote, who avoid politics, but they love Trump alone so much that they do come out to vote when he’s on the ballot.  The problem for MAGOPS is – Trump will not be on the ballot in the Mid-Terms.

My friend always replies to me, “I hope you’re right.”  And I always respond back – “I hope I’m right, too!! But then, pretty much every political prediction ends with ‘I hope.’" 

Am I right about all this above?  I gave my many reasons, and provided facts and details.  And anyone who disagrees is welcome to explain why I'm wrong.  So, am I right about it?  I don't know.  I think I am.  But mostly...because this is politics and looking into the future, and it's how every political prediction ends...I hope I'm right.

Above all, though, it's very important to keep in mind that saying ‘I hope I’m right,’ does not mean that you’re saying ‘I’m wrong.’”