North to Alaska
There was a fascinating and very surprising article in the NY Times last night that was able to analyze many of the ranked-choice ballots in Alaska which the state made public. And what they found was, surprisingly, that most of the people who voted for the "other" Dan Sullivan (the one who was not the incumbent) actually had Democrat Mary Peltola as their second choice! Not the incumbent MAGOP senator, as most people have presumed. (This means Alaskans were smart enough to figure out what was going on, and maybe didn't want to vote for Peltola first, but weren't MAGOP -- likely Independent -- and therefore ranked her second.)
Furthermore, there are still 60,000 mail-in ballots left, which Peltola has fared well in. And there are also 10,000 hand-counted ballots which are not included in the paper’s analysis – however, those are generally from rural areas, where Mary Peltola has done well. So, they suggest that she is actually in respectable position to cross 50% without resorting to second choice ballots – or win if they do require second-choice ballots!
Here are highlights from the article –
Senator Dan S. Sullivan is unlikely to make significant gains if the Alaska Senate race advances to ranked-choice tabulation, according to a New York Times analysis of the available ranked-choice data in the state. This holds true despite the fact that the reallocated ballots will come from voters who backed two candidates who ran as Republicans — including one also named Dan Sullivan.
The findings suggest that Mary Peltola, the Democratic nominee, is on track to eventually prevail in the Alaska Senate race. Ms. Peltola currently leads by less than one percentage point, but she is expected to build a more substantial lead once about 60,000 more votes, mostly cast by mail, are counted in the days ahead.
If Ms. Peltola doesn’t win the 50 percent needed to win outright and the race advances to ranked-choice tabulation on Nov. 18, the analysis suggests that Mr. Sullivan might not even claw back half of a point in ranked-choice tabulation, which would not be enough to overcome Ms. Peltola’s expected advantage.
…In a surprising twist, one reason Mr. Sullivan doesn’t fare better is that more of the voters who backed the other Dan Sullivan — a candidate named Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., who was recruited by allies of Ms. Peltola to siphon votes from the incumbent — ranked Ms. Peltola as their second choice rather than Mr. Sullivan.
The analysis is based on the state’s initial release of ballots from more than 200,000 voters, or nearly all the votes tabulated thus far. The data shows how every voter ranked the candidates in the Senate race, including whether they left their subsequent ch
…Two-thirds of Daniel J. Sullivan Jr.’s supporters ranked a second choice, with most of those voters supporting Ms. Peltola in subsequent rounds — an indication that they were not intending to vote for Dan S. Sullivan, as voters who chose the incumbent senator first rarely ranked Ms. Peltola second.
Even if all the voters who voted for Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. and did not rank a second choice at all had actually intended to vote for the incumbent, he would only gain about one percentage point in vote margin — an increase that would not offset Ms. Peltola’s expected gains from uncounted mail vote.
…With Mr. Heikes, a similar share of his first-choice voters chose to leave the rest of their ballot blank. On the ballots that did have a second choice, however, Dan S. Sullivan was by far the most common choice, which accounts for the small overall gain that the incumbent would be likely to receive if things advanced to ranked-choice tabulation.
…The state has published the full ranked-choice selections only for ballots that could be scanned electronically. About 10,000 hand-counted ballots, which come primarily from rural areas where Ms. Peltola has performed well, are therefore not included in the analysis.
…Voters who backed doppelganger Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., a retired schoolteacher, in Alaska's Senate race mostly picked Democrat Mary Peltola, not incumbent Sen. Dan S. Sullivan (R-AK), as their next choice, according to a New York Times analysis published Thursday. The finding suggests Peltola is on track to take the seat.
Peltola holds a lead of less than a percentage point with roughly three-quarters of the vote counted, according to Associated Press figures cited by The Times. Her edge is expected to grow once about 60,000 outstanding ballots, most of them cast by mail, are tallied in the coming days.
…If no candidate clears 50 percent, the race moves to ranked-choice tabulation on Nov. 18. The Times found that step would likely net the incumbent less than half a point, not nearly enough to close the gap.
…The analysis also leaves out about 10,000 hand-counted ballots, largely from rural areas where Peltola has run strong, meaning her position could be even sturdier than the numbers show.
If you want to read the full article (though this is the bulk of it), the link is here.
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