Misreading the Room

One of the vexing questions in politics has been at what point will Republicans in Congress see Trump as dead weight and cut ties with him?  I've long thought that that would come when, being politicians, they saw that being aligned with Trump was more of a harm to them than help.  That hasn't been the case, though it still may as we near the General Election, if Trump's chances of winning plummet.  Of course, they may not plummet.  But if they do, and a Republican has waited too long, it won't matter, since they'll be much too joined at the hip.  In fact, we're pretty much past that point.  Enabling someone for 3-1/2 years leading into a pandemic and 44 million Americans filing for unemployment does that.  But in close purple states, it could possibly have a possible benefit within sight of the election.

In a normal era, I think Republicans would have cut ties with Trump long ago.  The problem is their fear of getting a primary challenge and Trump endorsing the challenger.  Although his poll numbers are dropping overall, he remains popular in the Republican Party -- and members of the Republican Party are who vote in Republican primaries.

This is the first misperception.  I think Trump's popularity in the Republican Party is somewhat deceptive.  His poll numbers do remain very high in the GOP -- but what isn't taken into account is how many Republicans came to hate Trump so much during the primary and later during his term in office that they left the party.  If they stayed in the party, then Trump's Republican approval not only would have dropped, but perhaps significantly.  Even more oddly, by leaving they were eliminated from the Republican "pool" for pollster, and so Trump's approval in the party actually went up -- despite outraging Republicans so much he quite-literally drove then away.

And so, Trump has a high approval in the Republican Party.  And elected officials -- who can read the numbers -- remain loyal and supportive of him.  Because he's seemingly so popular as a winner.

Except...

The thought occurred to me that Trump's "popularity" as a winner is a bit of a chimera, kept together by smoke and mirrors, and some wadded-up chewing gum.  Which brings us to the second misperception.

Consider --

When Trump got the GOP nomination in 2016, it wasn't a win based on a foundation, ideas or substance.  There was no policy.  There was no record.  It was a cult of personality that provided a great show of platitudes and insults on the surface and worked remarkably effectively in the huge GOP primary field.  But yes, he won.

And when he took the show on the road away from the cult into the larger, full world of America, he won there, too, when he ran in the general election against Hillary Clinton.  Absolutely.  And that's the headline, and that's what counts. 

But at issue here is not that Trump won -- we know he did.  The point here is how the perception of him winning impacts the loyalty of elected Republicans in Congress to stick by him..  Who see his winning the GOP nomination and winning the general election as the end of the story.  As mistaken proof of him being a winner, and why they should stick by him in 2020.

But every car has an engine that drives it, and looking under the hood of that 2016 election, he received three million fewer votes.  Yes, that's how presidential elections are run -- you go for the electoral votes.  But the reality remains that in terms of his popularity, his mandate, his national support...he still got three million fewer votes. 

(And we're not even going to get in Russian efforts to impact the election.)

Then came the 2-1/2 months after the election when a winning candidate starts anew and builds up his support further across the country, as the nation unites to prepare for its new era ahead.  And when Trump was inaugurated, the high-point of bright-eyed, innocent support of any president's career, he still had less than a 50% approval.  And this was his honeymoon period.  The time when so much of American is pulling for the new president and hoping for a great future for the country.

In 3-1/2 years, Trump has still never had as much as a 50% approval.  The only president in U.S. history since polling began to never reach 50% approval.

Then there was the 2018 mid-term election.  It was largely seen as a referendum on Trump.  And the Republican Party got crushed, losing control of the House of Representatives after almost a quarter of a century.  The Democratic Blue Wave not only won the House, they picked up a huge 41 seats.

And now, Trump's approval has been falling even, hovering as of Wednesday at just 41% (on FiveThirtyEight's weighted collection of polls).  Trump's rating for his handling of the pandemic is even lower.  So is his handling of the social upheaval protests.  Worse, he's losing the women vote by 25 points. And he's losing the senior vote, which is the most reliable to turn out, by 12 points -- but this is a group he won in 2016 by 13 points, a drop of 25 points!

None of this is to say that Trump won't win -- or will.  That's a separate matter.  At issue here only is the reality of Republicans in Congress still sticking by Trump because of the perception that his support helps their own election.  (Yes, this is an assumption on my part, and I'm sure that there are many reasons they're still sticking with Trump, including that it's probably too late not to.  But I think it's a fair, reasonable and responsible assumption because any politician who thinks someone is hurting their own chances for re-election is going to drop that person like an anchor.)  But that help by Trump is a deception -- including his support within the Republican Party, boosted by party members who left.

Trump lost the popular vote in 2016.  He had below a 50% approval at his inauguration. The mid-term referendum on his administration swamped the GOP. His approval has dropped to his near-lowest.  And we're in the middle of a pandemic, with 119,132 Americans dead, 44 million Americans filing for unemployment and social protests and upheaval across the country.

And elected Republicans in Congress -- who have enabled Trump and are complicit -- somehow think he helps them in their own elections and that continuing to support Trump in all issues is A Good Thing for them.

Steve Schmidt had a seriously-perceptive comment about Trump yesterday.  He said, "Before he was president, a lot of people did business with Trump.  None did business with him a second time."

Of course Trump could win.  Or lose badly.  The larger point is that he isn't as much a popular winner as Republicans seem to think he is.  And his career shows that people don't like to do business with him a second time.