Going Back to College

I’ve seen a lot of commentary about the major takeaways so far from the public hearings of the Jan. 6 House Select Committee.  They’ve all been very good and important.  But one other has leaped out for me – that the Electoral College has to be changed.

The huge problem is that it would take a Constitutional amendment to abolish the Electoral College.  And since the way things stand benefit small states – and currently benefit Red states – the chances of that happen border on nonexistent.  Unless those conditions change which don’t even stand a chance of happening for a long time.

I think the option that has the most potential is something called the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact.  I wrote about it about a year-and-a-half ago, and think it bears revisiting, along with a slight update and some added perspective.

First, here’s that article from December 4, 2020

                                                         *

               Graduating from the Electoral College

The other day, I mentioned the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact -- and referenced it a while back, as well -- and it occurred to me that some people may not know exactly what it is.  Or what it is at all.

The unwieldly-named National Popular Vote Interstate Compact is an initiative to get around the huge challenge of having to pass a Constitutional Amendment that would eliminate the Electoral College.  The Compact says that a state will give all its Electoral votes not to the candidate who wins its state (as is currently the case), but instead to whichever candidate wins the national popular vote.  The thing about the compact that's offbeat, but is the whole point, is that if a state passes the Compact into law, it won't actually take effect immediately.  The law doesn't kick in until enough states have passed it so that their collected Electoral votes add up together to a minimum of  270. That, of course, would then be enough to give the election to the candidate who won the national popular vote -- even if no other state has passed the law.  After all, once a candidate receives those 270 Electoral votes from the states who have passed the Compact, that candidate is elected president, 

One of the very interesting things about the Compact is that if only 20 states have passed the law, but together they make up at least 270 Electoral votes, it doesn't matter if the other 30 states have not passed it.  You win with 270 Electoral votes, whatever other states do, which (in essence) makes the Electoral College moot.

The hurdle has been that most Southern states and very Red states and tiny states aren't all that anxious to give up the power and importance they have from the Electoral College, so they aren't likely to pass the law.  The problem for them, though, is that if enough other states do pass it and go across the 270 Electoral vote threshold, it doesn't matter, as I said, what these states do.

At the moment, 15 states plus Washington, D.C. have passed the law for 195 Electoral votes, which is about 73% of the number needed.  What's so interesting, though, is that there are still several major states that have not yet passed the law, but for whom it is extremely reasonable to think they could – making it one short of the 270 mark.  This includes such states as Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Virginia and North Carolina.  All of which voted Democratic in 2020.  And those states alone hold 74 Electoral votes right there, which would be one short of making the compact active.  But there are other states, too, like Ohio, Arizona and Georgia who -- while they aren't traditional Democratic states -- either have voted Blue in the past, or (like Arizona and Georgia) did in 2020.

The point being that passage is not a pipedream and a very real possibility.

What will happen?  Will there be a big push now to get those very-possible states to pass the compact?  Watch this space...

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That was then, this is now.  And if you’re still watching this space, there hasn’t been a great deal of change since then – it’s a slow process – but there has nonetheless been movement, in Michigan.

On the compact’s website, they note that eight months ago, an initiative drive was launched in Michigan, and will need 340,047 voter signature to get on the ballot.  The campaign first needs approval of the wording of the initiative petition and has requested it from the state.  Legislation with identical wording to the petition has been introduced into the Michigan House of Representatives.

This is not a longshot to pass the Michigan House.  In 2008, the state House of Representatives passed the National Popular Vote bill (HB 6610) by a 65-36 margin.  Obviously, conditions have changed in the state since then, but the precedent is there.

Further, much more recently, a majority of not only Democratic state senators but also a majority of Republican state senators sponsored the National Popular Vote bill in the Michigan Senate in 2018. The bill was sponsored by a bipartisan group of 25 of the 38 Michigan senators, a majority, and included 15 Republicans in favor.   

Additionally, back in 2008, a survey of 800 Michigan voters  showed 73% overall support for a national popular vote for President.  Again, much has changed since then, but support was almost equal across the full political spectrum:  78% among Democrats, 73% among independents, and even 68% among Republicans.

So, there’s movement in Michigan and not unreasonable hope for passage.  If that happens, it would bring the electoral count up to 211, out of the 270 needed.

Yes, I can certainly understand the view by detractors that this Interstate Compact would give weight to the more eight populous states or so.  And that they think this is unfair.  On the other hand, the way things stand now, weight is given to around eight states just the same – the difference is that among them are many less-populous states.  So, if you’re going to give added importance to a handful states – which we do right now – isn’t it better that those few states like California, New York, and Illinois, that make up 71 million Americans, do get more weight than, for example, swing states like Arizona, Nevada, New Hampshire and Iowa with just 15 million Americans?  For that matter, if Red states like Texas and Florida, the second and third most populous states, would agree to sign onto the Compact, that would bring the total to 126 million Americans – a third of the country over just the six most populous states. (In fact, over half the country lives in the nine most populous states.)

And the thing for critics to keep in mind is -- when I say this adds importance to the more populous states, even if you don’t think that’s reasonable this Compact can work against the best interests of these large states.  Yet three of most populous have passed it.  If California, New York and Illinois all vote heavily Democratic, yet the country as a whole gave the popular vote to a Republican, then California, New York and Illinois each would cast their electoral votes for the Republican. And those states still have signed on.  Because it’s best for the country, when electing a president of the entire country.

Of course, going further, if you got rid of the Electoral College in its entirety, no states – not California, Texas, Florida or New York – would have any added weight.  A candidate wouldn’t gain anything at all by “winning” a state.  Large states would certainly get more attention because there are more votes there – but then, that’s the point of an election, getting the most votes.  And ultimately, every vote in even the least populous state would count as much as any in the largest state. And no, that isn’t likely to happen.  But the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact could, and isn’t terribly far away from passing.

For more information about it all, you can check the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact’s website here.  It’s a pretty interesting site with a lot of articles and updates, as well as a link to donate.