Getting Extra Discredit
Updated: 1 day ago
For several years, going back to the first Trump term in office, a friend and I have had a deeply fond hope -- and a regular, ongoing hope each election -- that "This next election..." will be the one that Democrats not only win, but win in such huge numbers that it totally discredits the MAGOP. We haven't held high hopes all of the time, but nonetheless that has always been the hope and it keeps renewing. Winning is good, winning is very important. But the fascist MAGOP is such a blight on democracy that its ability to regenerate for every election is damaging to the country. And so, a totally discrediting election where the American public sees and acknowledges and supports the idea that the MAGOP view of authoritarian politics is so deeply destructive to America and democracy that it must be beaten into the ridicule of irrelevance.
Not that the MAGOP will disappear. We're too realistic to understand changes like that take a generation. But being discredited is a good first step for getting there. Especially knowing that Trump will be out of office in two years and forever, and the figurehead of the cult of personality will be out of elective power.
We thought there was a reasonable chance in 2020 when Joe Biden was on the verge of defeating Trump, but though he won, it was a close election. And too close to discredit the MAGOP. After the Jan. 6 Insurrection, we held hopes again that the voting public might remember that for the 2022 Mid-Terms and (rightly) hold the MAGOP responsible for trying to undermine the election results and overthrow democracy. But dealing with the impact of COVID and a poor economy put the kibosh on that, and so it didn't happen. We also, once more, held out hope 2024, though not with any great expectation. But since it was Trump running, and he'd already been defeated, had had a terrible approval rating when he last left office, was the architect of the Insurrection -- and had been convicted of 34 felonies, adjudicated for what the judge wrote was the equivalence of rape, and found guilty of business fraud -- it didn't seem unreasonable to at least have hope that someone like that would, in a normal reality, be discredited. Beaten for a second time, and badly. But when Joe Biden had to drop out in the middle of the race, the expectation dwindled. And worse, as Democrats had to play catch-up, Trump won.
Though the dream remained. As I always say, I live in reality, but have a vacation home in the Land of Hope. And this year -- this year -- yes, putting all the past dreams aside, I think this Mid-Term could be that election. I hope it, of course. But I'm at the point of thinking it's a serious reality. For starters, this is no "of the moment" thought: as I wrote in this article here almost a year ago, last November, I said even back then that I thought Democrats would pick up 30-40 seats. And while that was of course an amateur guess, it was a guess supported by about a half dozen reasons. And a guess with reasons that isn't looking too bad right now.
With gerrymandering, I'm not as sure about the 40 seats, though I don't dismiss it. After all, the at least some of the gerrymandering seems on the edge of backfiring. But I stand by the range of what I wrote, that begins with 30. And though I didn't feel as strongly about Democrats winning control of the Senate, I did at least wrote last November, "And while I’m not sure about the Senate, I think that it is now in play, where just three months ago it wasn’t." That was considered a pipe dream at the time. And I think it's only gotten stronger.
But I truly think that my friend and I might finally get our wish come true in two months. It's all just a guess, of course, and I hope I'm right -- but then every political prediction ends with the words, "I hope I'm right." And it is just hope. After all, we can be very certain that Trump and his corrupt circle of MAGOPs are going to be actively working to disrupt the vote. That's a very safe bet -- in addition to all the efforts we've already seen, just last week Trump literally told the crowd at his TrumpCon in Texas to swear a pledge to him to go out and cheat. So, who know how things will transpire? But -- I think everything on a daily basis suggests that not only will Democrats have a Blue Wave, it is building to a Blue Tsunami to bury the MAGOP. And it suggests that for many reasons: The starting point is Trump's approval is 32%. And MAGOP candidates are tied at the hip to Trump, enabling him on the record since 2016, no matter what they try to say now. And if they do try to run as they've never supported Trump, it risks alienating the Trump base. And worse for the party, that's a base so loyal to Trump that it doesn't tend to even vote if he isn't on the ballot. And now, Trump has gotten the country into his war of choice in Iran -- and he has no way out of it. Meanwhile, as a result of his war, gas prices are soaring and expected to go higher. And diesel prices are even worse -- and that raises consumer prices. And though MAGOPs traditionally poll their best on immigration and (for some reason) handling the economy, they are actually in minus territory on those two issues, their two best! In fact, they're behind on all major issues. Trump has even gotten the U.S. into a trade war with, of all people, our adorably friendly, close ally Canada -- enabled and supported by MAGOPs in Congress. And to top all of this off, Trump has dementia, which is degenerative. And almost on a daily basis he keeps saying and doing truly lunatic things, including posting AI-generated images of himself walking on water, meeting with George Washington and healing people like Jesus. And worse, he has no one to help him out of all his vast, disastrous problems. He's surrounded by unqualified, incompetents whose only function is to say "Yes, sir. That sounds like a great idea" to keep their jobs. Let's tear up our nuclear agreement with Iran and attack them. Great idea! Let's send violent, masked immigration military to brutally attack anyone who even just looks Hispanic and deport them. Great idea! Let's kidnap the president of Venezuela and become viceroys in charge of that country. What a great idea. Let's make Canada the 51st state, let's buy Greenland, let's tear down the East Wing of the White House, let's destroy the Reflecting Pool and say it was "vandals," let's build a massive arch in your honor, let's demolish the Kennedy Center. And lets call 'affordability' a hoax. Great, great, great ideas!!! All of them. All of it. Do it, sir!! And meanwhile the country sees it all, is struggling and gives him a 32% approval. And it will only get worse because Trump has dementia, which is degenerative. And has no one around him to help. That can't be said enough.
And it's not just what the polls say, which is bad enough, but more what's unseen underneath -- the enthusiasm factor. And all studies show that enthusiasm is heavily in Democrats favor. Where Democrats will crawl on glass to vote, but a strong segment of the MAGOPs are showing themselves to be depressed enough that many will stay at home. And then there are Independents, usually in the range of 50-50 who this year are breaking 75-25% in favor of Democrats. So, when we see a poll where a MAGOP might be ahead by 2-4 points, that's only showing who people are saying they prefer. Not that they'll actually go out and vote. That's where the enthusiasm factor comes in. And, in part, it's why we've seen Democrats gain an average of 16 points in every Special Election since Trump took office. Which is why, as noted above, even districts gerrymandered in Red states are not all inherently safe.
The MAGOP right now is like an old car that has seen much better days. And when one thing goes wrong with it, that impacts something else that then goes wrong, and then the wiring and battery and transmission and suspension and water pump and tires and windshield wipers all start to go bad and break down. The MAGOP party is also like an old sweater. Where there's an ugly thread hanging out that you pull at, and the whole sweater unravels. I know that I could be wrong. And I know Trump will do whatever he can to create distrust in the Mid-Term election. And nothing can be taken for granted. And Democrats have to stay vigilant and aggressive. So, this is all a guess. But it's a guess based on a lot of reasons, and on all the other reasons I wrote about a year ago. So, for all the conditions that have only gotten worse since then, I not only think that Democrats will do well, but will have a Blue Tsunami this year -- taking control of the House by a large margin and leaning towards the strong possibility of taking control of the Senate. Like a massive bolt out of the Blue.
And my friend and I may well finally have our long-held wish come true and not only see Democrats win, but win by such a large number that the country pulls together and discredits the MAGOP.
I hope.
And to be clear, if it doesn't happen, if the MAGOP only lose badly, or even just lose, but not devastatingly enough that the movement is discredited -- that's okay. I'll take it, and I'm sure my friend will. That's what important first and foremost. I just think that the way things are going, and the path it's headed on, being discredited is a serious possibility.
I hope. But those are my many and specific reasons. And if anyone disagrees, fair enough. It's just a guess. I look forward to hearing the specific reasons why my views are all wrong.
But here's to hope!
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