The Special Election Train Rides Again

The averages that I've been writing about here held.

There was a Special Election last night in Georgia, and MAGOPs held the deep Red state senate seat in GA-21.

However --

In the district's 2024 general election, the margin had been 40 points. Yesterday, though, it was only 23!

Democrats closed the margin in a DEEP RED district by 17 points. That's the same average of ALL Special Elections since Trump took office. (For accuracy’s sake, it's slightly more than -- the average is 16 points.) And again, this was picking up Democratic votes in a Deep Red district.  It's one thing to pick up 17 points in a purple district where there are a lot of Independents.  But in a Deep Red district?  Not only are most voters there MAGOP, so there are far fewer to pick up, but most Deep Red voters are more entrenched.  It's the culture of the district.

There have been 45 "key" elections since Trump took office.  (I'm not sure what makes a "key" election -- that's the word in a press release from the DNC.  I assume it's a combination of Special Elections and important elections that were regularly scheduled.)  In those 45 contests, Democrats have either won or over-performed the results in that same area's previous race in 44 of the 45!   As I noted above, for all Special Elections specifically, Democrats have picked up an average of 16 points.

Every MAGOP incumbent running in a purple district -- or even a "leans Red" district, where the margin is about 6-10 points -- is (or should be) terrified.

Including all those now-"Leans Red" districts that Texas created in their gerrymandering, by taking votes out of once Safe Red districts.