The Drop Out

There have been a great many articles and editorials not just understandably concerned about President Biden’s disastrous debate performance, but the very next day calling for him to drop out of the race and be replaced.

I fully understand the concern.  I wrote about my own concerns at length and in detail here the morning after the debate.  Though "concerns" and "calling to quit the race" (the very next day) are two totally different things. 

On the most basic levels, almost no one knows why President Biden had such a horrific debate.  It absolutely could have been because of great, troubling cognitive problems.  It also could have been because we’ve been told he had a cold, and if so likely took medication which might well have affected him.  Maybe not, I don’t know – but then, neither do the people immediately calling for him to drop out.  Further, it’s one thing to call for President Biden to drop out, and it’s another to answer “Okay, so what comes next?  How does that work?  And what are the problems that might result?”  And none of the calls have clear answers for that. 

Having concerns and discussing them is not only reasonable, but  necessary.  Calling for someone to quit the day after without having any answers is knee-jerk panicking.

Moreover, the cries to drop out are made without knowing who saw the debate and if they even cared.  It turns out that while there were 51 million people watching, which is a lot, but it's also far less than the 73 million who watched their first debate in 2020, and only one-third of the 158 million people who voted in 2020.  And few of those who watched were likely the most important group, undecided voters, who are least involved with following an election four months away. 

If so, that might, possibly, help explain the Morning Consult poll taken after the debate that actually had Biden over Trump 45-44. Who knows? By the way, I pay little attention to polls this far ahead, even those in my favor.  Further, Morning Consult is only a mid-range poll.  But the valuable point is comparing a poll to its previous results, since its methods don’t change. And this result is an increase for President Biden by one point.

Again, to be clear, I remain deeply disturbed by the debate, and I wrote a long laundry list of the missed, easy opportunities.  But all editorials or articles calling for President Biden to quit the race (or stay in) are made without actually knowing why the debate performance was so horrible.  The assumptions might be 100% valid, but they are still assumptions.  One would think that knowing for certain is essential when saying after just one day that the President of the United States should drop out of the race.

Indeed, right after the debate, there was video of Joe Biden at two events, and he was strong and vibrant.  And the next day, he gave a rousing speech at a rally.  Was it adrenaline overcoming his cognitive issues?  Do his episodes come in occasional, short waves?  Was he was feeling better and the meds had worn off?  I don’t know – but it’s surely important to find out before calling for him to drop out.  That’s why such calls are knee-jerk panicking.  Because they haven’t bothered to find out.  Or find out first that if he does drop out...“what next?”

I was discussing this at length with a friend who tends to panic and often needs to be talked in from the ledge – sometimes, in fairness, with good reason for his concern.  In this case, especially with him being a devoted reader of the New York Times, and seeing their next-day call for President Biden to drop out, along with an article by their columnist Maureen Dowd saying the same thing, he insisted this wasn’t panicking, but prudent.  After all, he asked, what happens if Biden has another episode like this is three months or in three years?

Highly understandable as this thinking is, the problem with such an argument is that it was clear two years ago Joe Biden was too old to run for four more years, when he would be 86.  That’s when "prudence" should have kicked in.  But he did run, without real challenge.  I fully agree with the explosive concern over the debate, but to now call for him to drop out one day after his horrible debate without absolutely knowing why is kneejerk panic.

The reality is that Joe Biden is the nominee, and he’s said bluntly he is not dropping out.  There certainly could be another incident between now and the election (or not), and if so that would be disastrous.  But the additional -- and important -- reality is that nothing can be done about changing candidates until the Democratic convention, two months away. So, that’s two months to watch, see how things go, and prepare contingency plans if necessary, rather than act out of panic “the very next day.”

(Side note: honestly, I’m not concerned with three years from now, or even six months.  If Joe Biden is elected and then God-forbid fails too much, there is line of succession built in.  The country wouldn't collapse is Kamala Harris was President -- but it would be at risk of disaster if the fascist, convicted felon and rapist with early dementia, who echoes Hitler and says he wants be a dictator is elected. The only goal is ensuring Trump does not win.  And right now, I don’t know that the alternatives would be more electable.  They might be, but I don’t know, and no one can say for certain they know.  After all, the polls currently don’t show that any other Democrat can beat Trump.  That could change, but it's going all-in on "could."  So, guessing what Joe Biden's health might possibly be in the future is not an issue compared to that.)

I will add that while I find discussing the situation to be critically important -- as long as President Biden continues to hold firm he will stay in the race (whether he should or not), then I find that public editorials, op-eds, articles and calls that he should drop out (when nothing can be done about selecting a replacement for two months) to be counter-productive and divisive, since it provides fodder for driving away support.  Consider, too, some perspective:  Trump is a 78-year-old convicted felon, adjudicated rapist and fraud, who says he wants to be a dictator and has early dementia – and Republicans support him hugely.  (It’s weird and sick, I know, but that’s the reality.)  President Biden had a truly awful debate, and many Democrats and editorials the very next day began calling for him to drop out.  Assuming he stays in, which right now seems likely, calling for him to drop out is not a recipe for a united front of support to help bring in shaky Democrats and undecided Independents, and defeat Trump

By the way, it’s worth noting – not as proof of my thoughts here, but to show such thoughts don’t stand alone -- the Raw Story website had an article titled, “NY Times facing blowback for calling on Biden to drop out 'and not the convicted felon'”

And to show further how skewed all of this is, where are the editorials and cover articles calling for that 78-year-old convicted felon, adjudicated rapist and fraud, who says he wants to be a dictator and has early dementia to drop out??!  (FUN FACT: Over the weekend, the Philadelphia Inquirer finally did so.  Okay, so now there's "one.")

I don't say this is ignore the issue.  People should raise questions about an 81-year-old man running for re-election to be President, especially if he had what was a deeply problematic debate performance.  But I'd suggest that it's irresponsible and dangerous for all those editorials, articles and cover stories to call for him, the very next day, to "drop out" without absolutely knowing what caused his horrible debate and not devote as much, if not more, horror and outraged concern and calls to "drop out" over what we do actually know as fact about a 78-year man who is slurring and making up fake words, ranting about shark attacks, water pressure in showers, wind causing cancer, electric airplanes crashing because it's dark, unable to hold a glass of water in one hand, professional psychiatrists publishing books and articles about very real signs of degenerative early dementia, and is convicted of 34 felonies, liable for rape, guilty of business fraud, says he wants to be a dictator, echoes Hitler and says he wants to throw out some of the U.S. Constitution.  Absolutely raise concerns over Joe Biden -- but in that very same breath or subsequent breaths to not address that Trump should drop out, only President Biden (!!), that is knee-jerk panic.  And a danger to democracy.  To be very clear, I'm not talking about reporting stories who Trump is, we've seen all of those.  I am specifically talking about non-existent editorials, articles and cover stories calling for the convicted felon, rapist, fraud who has early dementia and wants to be a dictator to drop out.  As if it's President Biden who alone is the problem if he runs.

Yes, this is a separate issue from President Biden's meltdown debate, but it is not unrelated.  And it is not without important meaning and worth referencing together.  Because Trump is normalized through his ongoing chaos, crimes and signs of early dementia.  So, we accept him, and instead Joe Biden is The Problem Who Must Drop Out in editorials and cover stories.  In fact, though, Trump should not only drop out, he should be in prison.

If it was clear that President Biden had become enfeebled, and that it wasn’t just a bad debate for whatever reason, and if there was a clean, easy path for him to be replaced separate from him deciding, and if there was also a clean easy way to nominate a replacement that wouldn’t cause great discord in the party, I’d support that today.  But that’s a lot of “if’s,” and without being more certain about all of that, I repeat that, however much I understand the reaction, immediate calls for “replacement” is a kneejerk panic.

While it’s certainly possible, as my friend worried, that the White House has long been hiding a worse condition for President Biden, I think that's far too much to cover up.  But I don't know.

That said, I don't think Joe Biden should have run for re-election, but he did.  And will likely be the candidate.  (Unless there’s another problematic episode -- which I don’t expect since from here on he’ll just be making stump speeches.  Trump is the one who psychologists say has a degenerative cognitive disease and is more likely to melt down, not Joe Biden who’s facing normal old age.)  If there's a second debate, I expect President Biden’s team will say to him “We aren’t going to cram you.  You know the details.  Be yourself, be Uncle  Joe, forget the moderators and Trump, talk to the people like you love to do.  And keep calling Trump a loser and that he’s wrong.”

Obviously, I have no idea about if I’m right about of any this.  But no one does, either.

In the end, my concerned-friend asked about a range of candidates who he thought could be a replacement nominee, such as Kamala Harris, Gavin Newsom, Pete Buttigieg, Gretchen Whitmer, J.B. Pritzker, Josh Shapiro, and others.

I think Democrats have a lot of great candidates.  But – without a primary process – the public doesn’t know them.

They do know Kamala Harris, but the hurdle she faces is if enough of the country will vote for a Black woman getting thrust on them without having gone through the primary process.  And if she doesn’t get the nomination, does the party risk outraging their strong base of Black women voters.

As for the others, largely unknown, I don’t know if they’ll vote for a big liberal from California.  Or if they’ll vote for a gay man.  Or vote for a female governor they don’t really know.  Or a Jew.  Maybe they will.  (I think Newsom and Buttigieg especially would have eaten Trump for lunch at the debate.)  But I don’t know.  And I think it’s a huge risk – especially when you’ll also be trying to unite Democrats upset their candidate didn’t get the nomination, claiming it was all backroom politics, and trying to bring in Independents who don’t know the new candidate.  But they do know Trump who, as chaotic as he is, is a former president.

Ultimately, my biggest concern about dropping President Biden right now without knowing more is that I think a brokered convention could be a mess and show Democrats in disarray.  While putting up someone else the public doesn't know.

Is it a greater risk that President Biden still running?  I don’t know.  But I really do think Joe Biden won’t have an episode like that.  Part of that is admittedly hopeful thinking.  But part is that he’s old, not that he has dementia.  And that he was fine after the debate and the next day.  And his team will protect him.  And also I think he’s furious at his awful performance and is in fighter mode.  But – I don’t know.  I just think it’s better to go with someone who people felt good about before the debate, and who had a horrible debate, and who was fine right after – than go with a wide range of excellent, complete unknowns at the very last minute.  All the while keeping a close eye on President Biden, and knowing you have two full months to deal with things…before you can do anything anyway.

That said, if President Biden himself decides to drop out, I think there are excellent candidates to do so.  It’s just that they’ll face a big hill to climb and only have about 75 days to convince Americans to make them President.

That is my thinking and reasons.  But the only real answer is to any of this is – I don’t know.  But neither does anyone else, no matter how much they insist or write editorials.

The only thing I do know for certain is that the one goal is to defeat Trump.