You Really Ought to Give Iowa a Try

Days after Catelin Drew flipped a Red Iowa seat in the statehouse and picked up 22 points from the last statehouse race in the same district -- a district that Trump himself won in 2024, as well -- Sen. Joni Ernst (MAGOP-IA) announced today that she would not seek reelection.

Beside showing how risky races may be for MAGOPs in the Mid-Terms, which may have been a partial concern for Ernst, it also appears that telling people “We’re all going to die” when explaining your vote to cut Medicaid turns out to not be a good thing.  Nor was defending that statement in a snarky video walking through a graveyard.
 
Ernst not running is likely a very good thing for Democrats, since it’s harder to run against an incumbent than an open seat.  However, Ernst was clearly flawed, even running an an incumbent, so if the MAGOPs nominate a stronger candidate, that might be better overall for them. 

However, that's an "if" and a "might be."  Never a great position you want to start from.  After all, 1) there’s no guarantee that the party will nominate someone better and not a far-right Trump acolyte crazy who appeals best to the MAGOP base voting in the primary, 2) even a better candidate still will have to defend the disliked budget bill and Medicaid cuts that got Ernst (and is getting all MAGOP candidates) into such trouble, along with all Trump’s policies that are polling well-under 50%, like tariffs, deportations of mothers and children, cuts to healthcare, and sending the military into U.S. cities -- and the Epstein files, and 3) even a “stronger” candidate has to deal with the reality that in a Red statehouse district in Iowa Democrats gained 22 points and flipped the seat, so that’s a hurdle that has to be faced.

Red Iowa is clearly no guarantee for Democrats.  But then, problematically, it is just as clearly not a guarantee for MAGOPs which, being a Red state, is relying on a clear guarantee.  Although, given recent results, one that is contrary.  And that is what spells Trouble for the party -- with a capital T, that rhymes with P...and stands for Politics.
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