You Look Good in That Suit

Well, if you had Fani Wallis in Atlanta for your office pool as being the first law official to file charges against Trump, you lost.  Not as big a loss as the Trump family had on Wednesday, but a loss nonetheless.

Instead, New York Attorney General Letitia James got in there first and filed a massive lawsuit against the Trump, his kids and their organization.  (Just to clarify, I mean real estate organization.)

Among other things, it comes with asking for $250 million in penalties and that neither Trump nor his kids can serve as an officer of any business registered in New York state - ever again. Which, while it allows for working elsewhere, cuts a pretty wide swath when it comes to doing business anywhere in the world.

And the “outraged” responses have come pouring in from Trump and his kids, along with his lawyers (the ones willing to still defend him) and most-loyal supporters.  How it’s all politics and just a witch hunt.  And that it’s a witch hunt.  And just about politics.  And it’s only politics.  And a witch hunt.  Y’know, the Greatest Hits. 

That, and a new one tossed in, that Letitia James filed the lawsuit because she’s black.  And therefore a racist. (In fairness, this one can probably be ignored as just Trump projecting.)

The thing is, when I keep reading all "outraged" responses by Team Trump, crying out that it's all just political and there's no evidence and just a witch hunt, what I think is two things --

1) Trump and his son Eric pled the 5th 1,000 TIMES!  And in a civil trial, when someone refuses to testify because they say a truthful answer may incriminate them, jurors may draw an adverse inference.  Up to 1,000 adverse inferences

2) In a civil trial, unlike in a federal trial that needs a unanimous vote for conviction, only seven of the 12 jurors, a majority, are needed to find against a defendant liable of the charges.  And also unlike in a federal trial, where guilt must be determined beyond a reasonable doubt, a civil trial only requires a preponderance of the evidence.  So, 1,000 “I take the 5th” pleas refusing to testify is a big problem.

Apparently, they found the witches. 

And have mountains of documents as evidence to back up their charges that the state offered in its filing.  Indeed, an interesting thing about this is that we know Trump famously doesn’t use email so as not to put things on paper.  Funny thing, though, it turns out that his children and others in the organization and those they dealt with…do use email.  And it all exists.  And the state has it.

Man, this just has to be Trump’s worst nightmare.  Not the lawsuit.  Yes, of course, that’s very bad.  But Trump is at least used to lawsuits, even if they haven’t been as potentially as damaging as this.  No, I’m talking about how it’s being filed by a black woman.  Furthermore, if and when charges also get filed by Fani Wallis in Atlanta, that together with this from New York will probably his sixth circle of Hell.

Notable, too, is that Attorney General James suggested that federal criminal laws may have been broken, and referred the case to both the U.S. Attorney and IRS.

And what’s critical, as well, is that if the Trump organization loses and is found liable, it will be near impossible for Trump to get a bank loan for five years from any financial institution that is registered to do business in New York state.  Given that New York City is considered the financial capital of the world, it’s hard to think of any financial institution that does not do business in New York.  And it’s well-known that Trump has many hundreds of million of dollars of loans that are due so.

To be clear, that condition is only if the Trump organization loses – or perhaps settles the case, which it’s difficult to see would not have draconian conditions, including this about doing business in the state, witness the settlement that the Trump charitable foundation made with the state.

The thing is, even without being found liable, something that would be years away, it’s hard to imagine any bank that would lend Trump any money, even enough to do home repairs, let alone hundreds of millions of dollars, since they are charged with multiple counts of lying on their bank documents, and so next-to-nothing can be trusted should they make a loan application.  And further, given the risk the Trump organization presents for paying back a loan should they be held liable, that would seemingly make any bank even more unlikely to make a loan.

Of course, that still does leave Saudi Arabia or Russia making a loan.  So, hey, that’s possibly good news for Trump.

Needless-to-say, a state filing charges does not mean that it will present a successful case and be able to win in court.  It’s possible, too, that the Trump, his kids and their organization is not actually guilty of all the great many charges.  It’s absolutely possible. 

But in considering that possibility, it’s important to remember that you are allowed to consider the 1,000 refusals to testify that can be used to draw an adverse inference.  And important to remember, too, that only a majority of jurors have to decide against Trump, his kids and their organization – based only on a preponderance of the evidence, not beyond a reasonable doubt.

It's also important to consider that it will be hard to explain away an 11,000 square foot home that you claimed was 30,000 square feet.  Trump's standard “I trusted what they told me,” also, won’t work because HE was the developer.  (Never mind the ludicrous price per square foot he gave it.)

And none of this takes into consideration how this lawsuit against Trump will have any impact on the Mid-term Elections.  No, Trump isn’t a candidate, but he’s the GOP party leader.  And candidates may be asked about the charges.  Certainly, the most loyal Republicans will be “outraged” and circle the wagons in support.  But just as certainly, it will reinforce Democratic anger at Trump and likely make those in the middle and even moderate Republicans growing weary about more and more and more noise from Trump.  All reinforcing, too, the January 6 insurrection investigations, voter fraud phone call investigation, search warrants for stolen top secret, classified and government documents investigation and more.  And more.

Finally, lest we forget, there’s one other thing I keep thinking about:

When NY Attorney General Eric Schneiderman had to resign in 2018, Trump very publicly laughed at him with great Schadenfreude ridicule.

Schneiderman was replaced by Letitia James.

From the "Be Careful What You Wish For" file.

But if you think, whoa, that's some major story and a whole lot of bad news for Trump to digest, so you need to catch your breath after all of that, well, as TV pitchmen like to say -- But wait, there's more!

That's because meanwhile, in other bad news for Trump yesterday --

The 11th Circuit Court has made a ruling already on the DOJ's emergency appeal of Judge Aileen Cannon's decision and lifted the hold barring the DOJ from making a risk assessment on the classified and Top Secret documents that were stolen and taken to Mar-a-Lago.

What this means is that a) people in Trump World can now be interviewed for who handled what classified material, and b) it shows the 11th Circuit is taking this very seriously and is following the law.  And believes that some of the material is, in fact, classified, contrary to Trump's unsworn insistence.

But it's worse than that -- because the 3-judge panel's decision was unanimous.  But it's worse than even that -- because two of the three judges were appointed by...Trump.

We now return you to our scheduled movie, Bad Day at Black Rock.