Yes, Virginia, There is a Virginia

​Yesterday was the Virginia governor’s race.  This is being written early Tuesday afternoon before even the first, early results have started to be counted.  I’ll include an addendum afterwards once more is known and perhaps a winner is declared, but for now there’s a point to intentionally writing this ahead of time.

And that point is that I don’t think the results matter in the way the race is being covered as a precursor to the 2022 midterms whoever wins, whatever the margin.

To be clear, I think the results are important.  If Terry McAuliffe loses, and that’s the direction things appear, but it’s close, that’s bad for the Democrats.  But it’s mostly bad because it means they lost a governor’s office.  And it’s bad too because it means that right now purple Virginia has shifted a bit red.  But as showing what will happen in 2022??  No.  And that's the point here.

For one thing, as Rachel Maddow noted the other day, in something like 45 years, Virginia has not re-elected a governor who’s in the same party as the just-elected president.  So, if Terry McAuliffe loses, maybe it’s because of that.

Also, Terry McAuliffe was already governor of Virginia.  If he loses, maybe in the end the voters decided they knew who he was and didn’t want him back.

In addition, to think the Virginia governor’s race will establish the results for the 2022 midterms presupposes that the conditions in Virginia are identical to all other 49 states.  Virginia may have some things in common with a few states – but it’s more probable. that they have nothing in common than everything in common.

Moreover, to think that anything today – whoever wins – will not be impacted by what happens in the country over the next years is incomprehensible.  If the economy explodes, that will affect the midterms.  If the economy implodes, that will affect the midterms.  If the pandemic breaks out of control and worsens, that will affect the midterms.  If vaccinations keep going up and COVID-19 largely disappears in the U.S. and life returns to being wide open, that will affect the midterms.  If there’s a terrorist attack, if there’s another far-right insurrection, if the U.S. gets drawn into a new war, if the U.S. brokers peace in the U.S.,

If – or rather, when -- the reconciliation and infrastructure bills pass and if they have major benefits to Americans, that will have a major impact on voters.  As will Democrats being able to campaign on showing what else they can build on if they keep control of both the House and Senate.  And if passing these bills breaks the logjam so that some other helpful bills pass, that will, as well.

Also, if lawsuits succeed against unfair gerrymandering in red states, and state maps are re-drawn to more equitably favor Democrats, that will make a different in the midterms.

And if the Supreme Court overturns Roe v. Wade, that ill seriously impact the 2022 midterms.

None of these scenarios are outlandish or improbable.  None may happen in full, but any of them reasonably may.  And all will affect the midterms, for one party or another.

That’s why whoever wins the race for governor in Virginia – Democrat or Republican – will not, by itself, be a precursor for 2022.  Because over the next year, so much of great importance can very possibly happen will affect voters all across America.

If Terry McAuliffe loses, that would be bad for Democrats – in part because of the temporary perception that it matters nationally, and in part because it will show an erosion of Democratic support in a state that Joe Biden won by 10 points in 2020.

But if Terry McAuliffe wins, unless it’s shockingly by a far-bigger margin than the polls show, that 10-point margin was already cut.  And even if Democrats hold the 10-point margin (which seems unlikely), it not like Democrats can relax and say that they have the midterms in the bag.

Indeed, even if Republican Glenn Youngkin loses, it doesn’t mean that that discredits Trump.  Trump already lost the presidential race by 10 points.  And he only campaigned there for Youngkin for one day.

For that matter, if Terry McAuliffe wins by 1,000 votes, that’s better for the state’s Democrats in running the state than if he loses by 1,000 votes.  And vice-versa.  But how does a switch of that few votes -- in either direction – say “more” about national Democratic chances in the national midterms, one way or the other?

Only if either candidate wins by a huge margin will the results have somewhat of a national meaning.  And I think most people will be stunned if either candidate wins by a huge margin.

And what matters, too, left out in all this, is – who ends up controlling the Virginia legislature.  Right now, Democrats control both the upper Senate (though only by two votes, with one “swing” Democrat who occasionally votes with the GOP) and the lower House of Delegates.  However, only the lower House of Delegates is having an election this year, so the upper house will remain Democratic, by a hair.  I have zero idea what will happen with this, so I can’t comment – other than to say it’s arguably as important as who wins the governorship and seems a major story for the media to ignore all this time.

And I say all of this on Monday afternoon without having the slightest idea what the results will be in Virginia.

Moreover, I saw this without knowing what the results will be in New Jersey.

Ah, yes, New Jersey.  It’s having a governor’s race, too.  But apparently it’s not a precursor of anything, for some reason.  Oh, it’s New Jersey, it’s a Democratic state with a Democratic governor.  Except that before its current governor Phil Murphy was elected, the state had a Republican governor, Chris Christie.  Furthermore, no incumbent Democratic governor has won re-election in New Jersey since 1977.  So, if Phil Murphy wins…is that a precursor?  Or if Republican candidate Jack Ciattarelli defeats the incumbent Democrat, will that be a precursor? Or just New Jersey’s normal pattern?

Again, I don’t think either holds a meaning for what will happen in the 2022 midterms.  But I think it’s close to as meaningful a governor’s race as the one in Virginia.  Even if it’s ignored by the media, and people wrongly think it’s just a liberal blue state.

So, here’s a scenario:  what if Republicans win in Virginia and Democrats win in New Jersey?  And lest you think that’s an easy answer, let me rephrase it – what if Republicans win in Virginia, which confirms historical pattern there, and Democrats win in New Jersey, which goes against the historical pattern?

Of course Republicans would win both.  Or Democrats.  And painful as that would rightly be for either party – it wouldn’t mean that’s what will happen in the midterms.  For all the many reasons I noted above yet to be resolved that are of greater actual importance to voters.

Which leads us to what did, in fact, happen on Tuesday.

And so Republican Glenn Youngkin won the governor’s race in Virginia, and at the time of writing Republicans have unofficially taken back the lower House of Delegates 52-48.  And that’s awful news for Democrats.  (Note: awful news as it is, other than for the last election Republicans had, in fact, controlled the House of Delegates for 20 years, so this is actually the norm in Virginia.)

But – Youngkin ran as a moderate Republican, almost a Mitt Romney-like candidate – which he is not, he supports Trump.  But the fact that that’s what Republican officials believed was necessary to win in Virginia is very important and speaks loudly.  Because that is not who Republican candidates are now.  And as GOP primaries take place across the country during the year, it’s likely that the most Trumpy candidates will win in those.  And that’s fine for the party in Red states, but it could be very problematic in purple states – witness Glenn Youngkin trying to distance himself from Trump positions and from the candidate himself (keep in mind that he didn’t even show up at the event where Trump called in), even while actually supporting him.

Does this mean Virginia loves Trump Republicanism?  Or – considering that the Trump-like Youngkin ran from Trump and that Trump lost Virginia by 10 points – does it mean that Virginia still hates Trump, which is why they voted Democratic in 2020, but still is a purple state that has periodically leaned more red and simply wanted to change back to that?

(Side note:  unmentioned in all the election night analysis but of curiosity to me is how – if at all – the bad results for Democrats in Virginia might impact any decisions that Joe Manchin and Krysten Sinema make.  Will it be a serious wake-up call for them, seeing viscerally what’s at stake for the Democratic Party in reality and not just in theory?  Or will it have no effect at all, but just been seen as a local race with local results?)

In the end, the results in Virginia were bad for Democrats.  But above all, as bad as the results were – and to be clear, they wouldn’t be all that good even if McAuliffe had squeaked in, since he would have still lost 10 points from Biden in 2020 – there not only are a lot of local issues why Republicans won in Virginia having nothing to do with what other states will do, but the main thing for both parties by far is what happens over the next year with the economy, jobs, the supply chain, the pandemic, benefits from the Reconciliation Bill, Joe Biden’s approval and more, including how Trumpy the Republican candidates are.  That is what will decide the 2022 mid-terms.  Not who won in Virginia.  Some of the reasons are important which Democrats need to address.  But most of what will decide 2022 are other issues entirely.  And so it remains to be seen what happens over the next 12 months.

Lest anyone thing this is just a rose-colored glasses, Pollyanna view of Tuesday's results, let me suggest another scenario:  What if Democrats had swept both Virginia and New Jersey governorships and by massive landslide margins -- and over the next year the pandemic had a new mutation outbreak, the economy stumbled, inflation continued rising, the job market took a hit, and the Reconciliation Bill didn't pass.  All of which is certainly possible.  Does anyone think none of that would matter because of the great news in Virginia and New Jersey??  No, it's Virginia and New Jersey that wouldn't matter, at all.  Tuesday was bad for Democrats.  What matters most, by far, is how they address that and what happens over the next year.

As for New Jersey, it’s still too early to know the results as I sign off Tuesday night.  But it’s close -- the Republican is leading, but by only a paltry 565 votes with 16% of the votes still to count -- and, in the end, the same reality as with Virginia and what happens over the next 12 months applies.  [UPDATE:  As I post this Friday night, incumbent Democrat Phil Murphy has taken a 65,000 vote lead of 2.6% with 95% reporting, and most news services have called the race for him.]

And isn’t it refreshing and democratic to see an election where one side lost and didn’t begin whining that there was “voter fraud,” and it was stolen, and they wanted a recount, and it shouldn’t be certified, and lawsuits get filed and hate-threats are made to election workers who are stalked and harassed, and the losing candidate doesn’t call the Secretary of State to fix the results for him, and the losing side doesn’t claim they don’t know who actually won…?