Yes, Virginia, There is a Second Impeachment

I'm not a total fool.  If I absolutely had to bet all my money on the outcome of the Senate Impeachment Trial, I'd of course put it on acquittal.  It's hard to imagine that not being the likely result.  But I'm also not a total cynic, and I wouldn't bet all of my money that there is no way he will be convicted.

And before we go any further, it's important to make clear that the Senate vote taken a week ago that got so much attention was not that Republicans voted it was unconstitutional to try someone no longer in office.  The vote was only a procedural one for a Democratic motion to table discussion on whether the issue is unconstitutional.  It is very possible that some Republicans voted "no," not because they thought the trial was unconstitutional, but because they thought the matter at least deserved debate.  That is a totally different issue and a totally different action from putting your name down in the annals of history voting against convicting a person for whom there is video evidence of inciting insurrection to overthrow the government of the Untied States.

And so, returning to the question, I think there is a plausible case where Trump could be convicted, as highly unlikely as that is.  What has been left out of the equation of all discussion on what will happen is that the discussion is made before seeing the case that House Managers will be making.  While we know what the core evidence is -- we all saw it, for goodness sake -- there is a very big difference between knowing the evidence and seeing how it is put together and presented.  And my sense is that the House Managers have been working incredibly hard to not only present the evidence in a step-by-step story going back much farther than most people expect, to when Trump actually began preparing to push insurrection long before January 6, but I also am 100% certain that they have been working with media experts to put together galvanizing videos to literally show on camera what Trump did, edited alongside additional video of the brutal siege of the U.S. Capitol, as well as mob seditionists all talking about how they're taking their direction from Trump.  And all of that mixed together with heart-sickening video of how violent the insurrection was that killed five people, murdered a D.C. policeman and had members of Congress in literal mortal terror for their lives.

Republican senators will likely vote to acquit despite viewing all of that.  But "viewing all of that" is going to make it much harder to acquit than merely saying so while strolling down the hallways of the Senate.  Again, I'm not saying they won't vote to acquit, just that the conditions will make that a harder vote to cast, with consequences.

And those conditions will include that House Managers will be intetionally presenting their case not just to the Senate but to the American public, as well.  Several weeks ago, 47% of Americans said they wanted to see Trump convicted.  This week, an ABC News poll (which has an A+ rating by Nate Silver) showed that now, however, 56% want him convicted.  Only 43% don't.  Compare that 13-point difference to the general election where Trump lost by 4.5 points.  It seems reasonable that while watching such a visceral case as House Managers are likely to present -- and with galvanizing, stomach-churning video -- against a Grade-C legal team defending Trump on the unsupportable principle that you can't impeach someone not in office, the number of Americans who want to see Trump impeach will increase.  Whether by a lot or a little, remains to be be seen.  But even if a little, let's say two points, would make the margin 58-41% for conviction.  And that's significant.

And making it more significant is that in 2022, there will be 22 Republican senators up for reelection, while only 12 Democrats will. 

Again, I think it's probable that Trump will be acquitted.  But let's even accept that likelihood as the outcome.  What is also likely is that more Republicans will vote to convict Trump than any party has ever voted to convict a president of his own party in U.S. history.  That might not seem like much of a big deal, but the bar is set incredibly low.  How low?  There have only been three presidential impeachment trials in the Senate.  The number of Democrats who voted to convict Bill Clinton was zero.  And the number of Democrats who voted to convict Andrew Johnson was...zero.  In Trump's first impeachment trial (what a statement that is -- his "first"), the number of Republicans who voted to convict him was -- one.  Mitt Romney.  That was the first and only time a senator ever voted to convict a president of his own party in an impeachment trial.

For this impeachment trial, though, Trump's second, I think it likely that around five Republican senators could vote to convict Trump.  That would be an utterly horrible brand message for a party that closed its eyes when voting to let Marjorie Taylor Greene retain her committee seats and would overwhelmingly close its eyes voting to acquit Trump.  But I think that after presenting such a devastating case to the American public, along with such visceral videos, as many as 10 Republicans could conceivably vote to convict.  And that would be withering to the Republican Party going into 2022 -- especially since it would mean the Senate voted 60-40 to convict Trump, a devastatingly loud statement, just not enough to convict.  I will also add that if Republican votes do reach 10, then it's probably less of a leap to get to the 17 needed than it is going from 5 to 10.  That's because if the number starts to reach 10 votes to convict then we will be nearing the dam-breaking point, where some senators might begin to look at political self-interest if they think that's the way the tide is rushing.

The larger point here is that -- even if it's likely that Trump is not convicted -- and that is likely -- if even just as few as 5 Republicans vote to convict, let alone as many as 10, let alone more, that will be monumentally terrible for Republicans in 2022, branded as the party of insurrection, the party that acquitted the man who incited that insurrection, all the while voting to support the QAnon lunatic who wants Democrats in Congress killed.  This is not a good look going into a mid-term election -- especially one where the Democratic president will have helped oversee the nation getting past the pandemic with maturity, care and science, and improving the economy from depression, while providing $1.9 trillion for emergency relief -- against Republican opposition.  And if anyone thinks Democrats won't use the Senate impeachment trial votes against Republicans in 2022 isn't paying close enough attention to how politics work.

Because this is not about Trump.  This is about the Republican Party who enabled him, voted to acquit him and is complicit in trying to overthrow democracy.

And if the Senate does vote to convict him, it's even worse for them.  Because most of the GOP still supports and enables him.