What Will Happen...

Okay, no, I have no idea what will happen in the election in the election today.  The possibilities are too many and convoluted -- and they include matters beyond the quaint concept of voting.  I do know, however, that what I think is most likely hasn't changed in the past couple months, and has only been strengthened.

I think that Joe Biden will get enough votes to win, and I even think we may know that if not tomorrow night for certain, I think it's possible that we will have a good indication of knowing that.  I say that because Trump needs Florida, Texas and North Carolina, all of them, and while it's possible he'll win all three, I'm not counting on Florida and Texas because of their history of corruption and voter repression -- but the larger point is that North Carolina counts early and will be announcing its results...and Joe Biden is up by from two points to six points in polls.

But even if we don't have any definitive results in any state, because of not enough mail-in votes being counted, there should be an indication from in-person early voting and Election Day voting.  And I think that since almost 100 million people have already voted, the "big" Election Day voting that Republicans are counting on won't be as "big" as Republicans are counting on. Further, it's not like all Election Day voting will be all Republican, but most -- probably.  After all, the weather appears pretty cold in the Northern states, and I have no idea how much that will keep moderate Republicans from wanting to stand in line for three hours or even far more during a pandemic to risk their lives.

But even if we don't know much of this on Election Day or the day following, that doesn't change the reality of the votes, whenever they're counted and certified.

As the expression goes, Joe Biden has a a lot of paths to win.  If he wins Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan -- all of which he is solidly ahead in.  Not hugely ahead in them all, but strong enough that if the results were flipped and Trump was ahead by that same margin, Democrats would be in hell -- Biden wins those three states, then he only has to win Pennsylvania, which he is solidly ahead in.  Or he just has to win Arizona (which he's ahead in, though it appears close) and the Second District of Nebraska, which his strongly ahead in.  Or he only has to win North Carolina, which as I noted above he's doing well in.  There are other mixes, too, but those are the most realistic.  And Biden could win all those states just mentioned.  As well as Georgia -- and even Texas, Florida and Iowa.  That's not likely, but...

But...I've sensed for months that although there aren't many people who are undecided, about five percent.  But five percent easily flips close states, and also turns a close 51-49 election into a landslide 56-44 blowout.  Now, I don't think Joe Biden will get all those undecideds.  But they're undecided because they haven't been convinced yet by Trump that he deserves a second term.  And there seems very little that Trump has done the last few days to may that argument.  What has been his closing case?  Whining about polls, whining that the media isn't covering scandals, supporting domestic terrorists trying to drive a bus of Biden supporters off the road, and suggesting that he'll fire Dr. Anthony Fauci, who is wildly popular for his handling of the pandemic.  So, if you're undecided when you go to the polls, that closing argument is not likely to convince you -- especially compared to Joe Biden's closing argument of inclusion and uniting the country.  In fact, I would suggest that Trump's closing argument has been so horrible that he might have convince some wavering moderate Republicans to not vote for him.  Whether they instead vote for Joe Biden or just don't vote for Trump, I don't know.  Either way is not good for Trump.

The point is that in close races like Georgia, Texas, Florida and Iowa, such things can have a major impact -- if not in all those races, then at least some.

Now, add in the massive shift in votes for Joe Biden from suburban women, senior voters and a new influx from young voters -- and a major increase in votes in general over 2016 who have to be voting this year for a reason they didn't before.  And it would seem that, given Trump's low approval, a pandemic, national division, and the huge economic collapse that most new voters haven't decided to participate this year because Trump's actions have convinced them what a bang-up great job he's done.

So, I think that Joe Biden will win in the vote count, whenever we find out, and it could be sooner than we expect.  Could.  But again, this is not just an election about vote count.  It's about voter suppression and legal challenges.  And I don't have a clue what will happen then.

I tend to fall heavily on the side of them noting having the disastrous impact they could present.  For them to have full effect and flip the race for Trump would take every convoluted part to work out perfectly, and that's just not a hair-thin path one would ever want to rely on.  Especially when you have people knowing what you're doing and fighting you every step of the way.  If Republicans made vote-by-mail difficult...then people will stand in line on Election Day.  If polling places are cut back and lines are massively long, then people will wait in line.  If mail service is cut back and can't be trusted to get delivered in time, then people will vote as early as possible.  And if in the end some mail-in ballots arrive late -- I think not only will that be few (again, almost 100 million people have already voted), but...1) the number has to be enough to offset any lead that already exists, and 2) it will be divided among both Democrats and Republicans (though likely will be more Democrats).

That leaves the court challenges.  And for that I fall heavily on the arguments made by Joshua A. Geltzer and Dahlia Lithwick.in their Slate article explaining why most legal challenges have a high hurdle of succeeding.  Further, just because you make a legal challenge doesn't mean you have a case with enough merits that the court will even hear it. 

And important, I don't know how many court challenges will actually occur.  As I've often noted, to challenge the legitimacy of an election based on mail-in ballots means you have to throw out the entire ballot, not just the presidential race -- every race on the ballot would be thrown out, and I'm just not sure how many states would want to risk that.

The biggest risk -- and this is the ultimate point that Geltzer and Lithwick make, as well -- is the uncertainty and confusion that Trump tries to create.  But...that is a matter of confusion and trust, not vote result.  And I think for all these reasons that Joe Biden will win.

And...I don't know.  The response I usually get is, "I hope you're right."  And I hope I'm right, too!  I have a lot of reasons why I think I'm right.  And they're good, solid reasons.  But I have no idea if I will be right.  Mind you, if everything was reversed, I think I'd be in Election Hell.

I know one other thing, though, for sure.  Yes, Democrats are nervous tortured wrecks is because of 2016.  And I absolutely understand why.  And it's worth being nervous for that -- though it's worth it because of what's at stake, not for the landscape.  And the thing I know for sure is that this is not 2016.

In 2016, Hillary Clinton was a very unpopular candidate.  Joe Biden's likability is over 50%...and going up.  And is far-higher than Trump's.  There were two serious third-party candidates who pulled away votes in the end -- this year there are none.  In 2016, poll results fluctuated greatly on a regular basis.  In 2020, the polls have been very consistent for the past two months -- if there's been changes, it's mostly been to increase Biden's lead, especially after Trump's disastrous first debate.  And finally, this year there was not a new FBI investigation opened up days before the election.  So, this is not 2016.

But there is every reason to be wary.  It's an election.  There is always uncertainty.  And voter suppression and legal challenges.  So, Trump can absolutely win.  But not only so too can Joe Biden, I believe he will.  And I think it will importantly be a clear, decisive win.  And we may possibly even know earlier than most people expect -- if not the definitive result, then the definitive direction.  I think it even has a chance to be a landslide.  Will it be?  Too many states are too close, so I don't know, -- and honestly I don't care (except for that it would help in blocking the "confusion" Trump is trying to push).  But I'll put it this way -- I think there's more of a chance that it will be a landslide for Joe Biden than for Trump to win.

And I think too that Democrats will not only increase their majority in the House, but will take control of the Senate, meaning Mitch McConnell will no longer be the Majority Leader.  While I expect he'll win his election, he won't have the same authority as before.  The only remaining question is if Lindsey Graham lose.  One can only but hope.  But if the only "hope" one gets is the presidency, and Joe Biden wins -- dayenu.  It would be enough.

So, okay, no, I have no idea what will happen in the election in the election today.  But I think it will be a very good day for Joe Biden and Democrats.  That's based on detailed reasons and truckloads of subjective optimism.

In the end, this election is about Trump, because we know who he is.  But it is my hope and expectation that Republicans will get caught in the undertow because they've attached themselves to the fascist for four years, have enabled him and are complicit.