Well, Here’s Another Nice Mess...
I was going to begin this by writing, “The problem with Kevin McCarthy’s announcement for an impeachment inquiry is that…” -- when I realized I didn’t know which of the problems to write about. Let alone the worst to start with. There isn’t "a" problem with his announcement, it’s bursting at the seams with them. But for all that, while picking one’s way through the mound of diamonds, I think at the very last the best way to start is by noting --
Kevin McCarthy’s announcement for an impeachment inquiry is Exhibit A for the Law of Unintended Consequences.
To paraphrase the character Inigo Montoya from The Princess Bride: I do not think this will turn out how you think it will turn out.
And then, mix in to it that the Republican Party is headed toward shutting down the government at the very same time it tries to impeach President Biden for no reason with no evidence.
This is going to be a massive conundrum for Republicans. There are two things that the public has shown over the years that they really, deeply hate from Congress. One is impeaching a President for absolutely no reason. Republicans thought impeaching Bill Clinton was a great idea, and his approval shot up to 81% -- and that was for an actual reason, just one so stupid it infuriated the public And the other is shutting down the government. People may hate the government, but they love it to be open, because closing it hurts their lives. And infuriates them, on general principle. And the party that is seen as most responsible gets blamed. And this year, that’s the GOP. Except that this year it’s not even a case of “most responsible,” but solely responsible. And that’s not a subjective opinion – House Republicans are literally vocal about it, even some of them taking pride. So, for Republicans, they are facing the Daily Double. Two mountains of public hate at the same time.
And for all that, it’s the “no reason with no evidence” that is the pesky hurdle here to overcome, permeating everything Republicans are trying to do with the impeachment. Whatever in the world that is. After all, keep in mind that McCarthy’s announcement didn’t pop up out of the blue. House Republicans have been investigating President Biden for almost two years since taking control of the House. And by their own admission, they have found nothing. As in...nothing.
And yet there is McCarthy talking about the weight of allegations. Hey, “allegations” are easy. Trump has been alleging that the 2020 election was stolen for over 2-1/2 years, and so far, for all his allegations, he has been indicted four times with 91 charges against him. And this doesn’t include the 18 co-conspirators he’s been charged with – so far. Or the 1,000 Insurrectionists (so far) who are sitting in prison, for their “allegations.”
One of my favorite tweets yesterday came from the senator from Cancun, Ted Cruz. He wrote --
“The weight of evidence that Joe Biden received bribes from Ukrainian oligarchs and Chinese Communist Party officials is overwhelming.
“The House is doing the right thing by opening this impeachment inquiry.”
Since most people don't speak Cruzese fluently, let me translate: when Mr. Cruz uses the word "overwhelming," he means "non-existent."
After all, Mr. Cruz knows full-well that House Republicans not only have been investigating this for two years, but have found zero. As in…zero. Which is the opposite of “overwhelming.” Which is why what he actually means, for those of us who speak fluent Cruzese, is “non-existent.” I mean, even Kevin McCarthy only said there were mere "allegations." But, y’know, fish gotta swim, birds gotta fly, and Cruz has got to Cruz.
But that’s just prelude. Because the reality of this mere “inquiry” is worse for Republicans.
It gets convoluted, so bear with me, but being convoluted is specifically why it’s worse for Republicans.
Clearly, Kevin McCarthy is hoping that “just” being a mere “inquiry” will give Republicans cover for not actually having a full-blown impeachment. And the cover is critical because as much as the far-right GOP think only about what they want, the reality is that there are five Republicans from districts that Joe Biden actually won. And the razor-thin margin that Republicans hold in the House is just -- five seats! And even more, there a lot of additional Republicans who represent purple swing districts, where they can’t afford to offend independents by doing stupid things like – oh, y’know, trying to impeach the President for no reason. While shutting down the government.
But hoping that a mere “inquiry” will give Republicans cover – especially all these at-risk Republicans – is a fool’s wish. What Kevin McCarthy announced is an impeachment investigation. That’s what the public will see it as – because that’s what it is. Republicans will be officially investigating the President for absolutely no reason. As much as Republicans try to insist that “We’re not impeaching the President,” that’s the room they’re playing in. And those are the headlines, about the impeachment investigation, that so many House Republicans are trying to push. With no evidence. Just…”allegations.”
Fun Fact: allegations are easy. As noted, Trump has been alleging that the election was stolen for 2-1/2 years, and that’s worked out really badly for him. And as for Kevin McCarthy trying to make an impeachment point based on nothing more than being supposedly "outraged" by “allegations” – McCarthy is the very same guy who still counts professional fraudster “George Santos” in his hip pocket as one of his supporters in the House.
And as giddy as Ted Cruz is about pushing the House to impeach President Biden, he’s ignoring that an angry public won’t separate the raisons out of the box of raison bran – all Republicans will be blamed for trying to impeach a President with no evidence, for no reason. While shutting down the government.
But it’s even worse. Because the very last thing Kevin McCarthy and any sane Republicans want is to actually impeach President Biden here, for no reason. To accomplish that, it would mean all those at-risk Republicans will have to vote for impeachment, signing their guarantee to be voted out of office and losing Republican control of the House. But if, on the other hand, after their inquiry Republicans can’t muster enough votes to even impeach the President, which they’ve been yammering about for 2-1/2 years, it will be a woeful embarrassment as a show of utter incompetence.
And for all that, they’ll still get blamed for having an inquiry to impeach the President for no reason. While shutting down the government.
While being okay with defending their own party leader under four indictments and 91 charges, after having been found liable (twice) for what the judge wrote as the equivalence of rape.
And we haven’t even gotten into how infuriated the far-right nutcase caucus will be at Kevin McCarthy if they don’t get what they want in all of this (which they won’t). And if they don't shut down the government because the budget bill passes over their infuriated objections. At which point, they’ll pull the pin on the “right” they negotiated and will likely vote McCarthy out of the Speaker’s chair. At which point, Republicans will have to elect a new Speaker. And we saw how disastrously that went for them the last time…
Be careful what you wish for. You just might get it.
It’s a dog’s worst nightmare – catching the car it’s chasing.
That is the Law of Unintended Consequences.
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