Warnock and Peace

Early in the day yesterday, I wrote to a friend who lives in Atlanta and gave my sense of the election to come.  I wrote --

"I have to believe that Warnock will not only win, but with a “comfortable” margin.  After all, he was ahead by 37,000 votes after the general election, so Walker has to make that up just to break even.  And ALL polls shows Warnock ahead by 2-4 points.  Most are within the margin of error, but not all.  And there’s no “control of the Senate” issue anymore.  And Walker news has consistently been bad and gotten worse.  I’m certainly no expert, but so who knows?  But if someone told me I had to bet, it would be that Warnock wins by at least three points."

This morning the margin of victory is 2.8 points (up from 1 point in the general election) and 97,000 votes!  And keep in mind, as close as the election was, this was, in fact, almost three times bigger than the margins of the general election.

(Keep in mind, too, that this was almost smack in the middle of pollsters' predictions of a win by 2-4 points.)

Oddly, as close the race was being reported all night, I never was concerned.  That was part foolishness on my part, since my opinion, guess and analysis meant nothing, but part paying attention to what was being reported.

Yes, the race was close.  And yes, there were times when Walker moved ahead in the results.  And yes, all through the night, MSNBC analysts were saying, boy, is this tight, a real nailbiter.  Except I kept looking at the results board.  And nowhere was Walker doing better than Warnock.  Even in districts where he was ahead and improved from the November general election, Sen. Warnock had often improved even more.  And in many of the districts where Walker did gain votes, I kept noticing that vote totals were down in those districts -- while up in blue districts.  Meanwhile, as the race was showing neck-and-neck results statewide, what wasn’t showing yet were most of the results from the most-populous districts in the state which were so heavily Democratic that he was expected to get from 70-90% of the vote.

So, I just couldn't see Sen. Warnock not winning.  And indeed, he won.  In fact, the final results were far more comfortable that was being reported all night -- almost three times bigger than the general election.  After all, hours before he was projected the winner, reporters at the Warnock ballroom were saying that campaign managers were already saying they felt comfortable.  And the Walker team was telling reporters (off the record) that you could "stick a fork in it," because it was over and Walker was done.  The only reason it came down the wire is because Cobb County, Fulton County and DeKalb County – the largest and most Democratic counties in the state – reported their results at the very end.  If they’d reported earlier, for all we know the race would have been called earlier.

A hat's off to Jason Johnson on MSNBC who, when asked at the end of the night by anchor Stephanie Ruhl about the close election said, "Actually, it wasn't that close."

And it's important that it get reported that way, to show the true support that Warnock and Democrats actually got.  Happily, it's somewhat being reported that way in the aftermath, but only somewhat.  Even mid-morning, the MSNBC elections analyst was saying that "this was a close election."  In the words of Jason Johnson, though, "Actually, it wasn't that close."

There is one very big caveat here from Democratic celebrations.

It’s that Herschel Walker, one of the most truly-incompetent candidates I have ever seen for the U.S. Senate, a man who was on record of beating his wife, paying for several abortions despite running against abortion, whose primary residence was in another state, who said he preferred being a werewolf to a vampire, who said that it was bad air from China that caused pollution and pretended to be a sheriff with a fake badge. – for starters – still was able to get 48.5% of the vote.  That’s pathetic and disturbing.

The good news is that 48.5% isn’t good enough, and he lost.

And also that Sen. Warnock will now be in office for six years.  And Democrats have a 51-49 advantage in the U.S. Senate.

Finally, I would be remiss if I didn’t recognize the great assistance of the man who helped make this victory possible – Trump.  If he hadn’t pushed yet another truly horrific candidate to be Republican nominee, it’s very possible that that other Republican might have won.  But just like most other total incompetents he endorsed, Republicans lost yet another huge chance to pick up a Senate seat in a year when there was high inflation and low support for the sitting Democratic president.  So, at least for one thing:  big hugs and kisses to the guy.

And so, six more years.